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February 22nd Snow Possible

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algae888
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February 22nd Snow Possible  Empty February 22nd Snow Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 19, 2016 7:28 am

Good Morning, 

I really want to thank everyone for the well wishes. Lots of emails from members checking up on me. I'll be back home later today. I feel better but still a long way to go until I get my strength back. Anyway I don't want to focus on me. There is a weak wave that may try to develop into a coastal storm on Monday. Both rain and snow is possible. The NAM and GGEM are most bullish with this so far. 

February 22nd Snow Possible  Gfs_z500_vort_us_14

A look at 500mb vorticity valid 7am Monday you'll see there is a potent piece of upper energy stretched across the southern northeast. The ridge out west is very muted and the flow looks progressive over the eastern US. This upper energy may try to develop a weak surface low off the coast of NJ. 

Here is this mornings 06z NAM 

February 22nd Snow Possible  NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f75

February 22nd Snow Possible  NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f78

Again, very weak and surface looks kinda warm. And it's snowing during the day. Probably a 3-6" type of deal. 

Here are the SREFS 

February 22nd Snow Possible  SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f78

February 22nd Snow Possible  SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f81

The hi resolution models are doing a good job of showing this wave. At this point, I would expect a combination of snow and maybe even rain on Monday with minor accumulations. The ceiling on this is likely a moderate snowstorn, especially those N&W of NYC.

We'll see!

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Post by frank 638 Fri Feb 19, 2016 7:50 am

frank I hope you feel much better are you home

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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 19, 2016 7:59 am

Frank, glad to hear your feeling a little better. I have one question. When will the snow/rain start Sunday night or Monday morning ? Just thinking about what my commute will be like going to work. Thanks.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:08 am

First lets quickly address the weaker Monday threat.  Here was the set up from 4days ago:

"By day 6 the LP should move up and out to the NE and the cold frontal boundary should set up somewhere off the east coast.  As you can see by the little black circles weak little waves may form along it but you can see a bigger LP gathering over SE Tx and a northern system set to dive into the plains.  Im not sure if any of the weak waves along the frontal boundary end up amounting to anything just yet, but the possibility exists.
February 22nd Snow Possible  Eps_sl10

And here we are today:  As you can see a weak wave of LP looks to pass off the coast somewhere south of LI as it rides along the aforementioned frontal boundary Monday.  Models still differ on its exact track and intensity.  Depending on exactly where and just how strong it is we may see snow showers or light accumulations.  Best chance is probably N of I-287/I-80.  As of now I think the coastal plain sees light rain but may change to snow showers. This can still trend towards nothing as well.  As you can see the does look to be a fresh injection of cold air with HP building during this period so we also may see this trend towards a colder soln if the LP trends a tad stronger.  

February 22nd Snow Possible  Monday10


Last edited by sroc4 on Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:11 am; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:08 am

@frank 638 wrote:frank I hope you feel much better are you home

Not yet. Hopefully later today. 

@SNOW MAN wrote:Frank, glad to hear your feeling a little better. I have one question. When will the snow/rain start Sunday night or Monday morning ? Just thinking about what my commute will be like going to work. Thanks.

If this storm comes to fruition, the timing would be Sunday 7pm to 8am Monday. GFS and EURO don't even have a storm. Just the hi res models.

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Post by gigs68 Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:08 am

Welcome back Frank. Amazing that Bill Evans this morning didn't even mention the possibility of a rain/snow event for Monday.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:11 am

Here is Uptons take on this system:

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE TO
BEGIN SUNDAY. AN H5 VORT MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND
CARVES OUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
ENERGY DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...AND THEN TRACKS QUICKLY OFF THE COAST TO SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS NOT
MUCH TIME FOR THIS WAVE TO AMPLIFY/STRENGTHEN INTO A DEEPER LOW.
OVERALL...00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/NAM ARE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN TRACK. THERE ARE
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES...WITH THE NAM AND GGEM A BIT DEEPER. THE
GGEM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...TRACKING THE LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
IT APPEARS THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GEFS ARE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE AS THE H5 ENERGY IS MORE ELONGATED AND THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE IS MUCH WEAKER. THE 03Z SREF MEAN IS
SIMILAR TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST. SAMPLING SHOULD IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE RAOB NETWORK.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL
SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NE FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE LOW. THE LOW TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
PTYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE...POTENTIALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...IF ENOUGH COLD AIR CAN MAKE IT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:40 am

The latest SREF run increases snow amounts for LaGuardia Airport for Monday. The most weenie-tastic plume gives it 9.2" of snow.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:42 am

Well, Sun-Mon brings a chance of snow up here and now the 22nd is starting to look a bit better.Did get below 10 degrees here this AM.Winter hangs in there!!!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:43 am

@Math23x7 wrote:The latest SREF run increases snow amounts for LaGuardia Airport for Monday.  The most weenie-tastic plume gives it 9.2" of snow.

What's the average?
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:48 am

The average is 1.28" of snow but the median is still just a coating. At this point it doesn't look like we'll get that much but the trend should be monitored.

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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:50 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:The latest SREF run increases snow amounts for LaGuardia Airport for Monday.  The most weenie-tastic plume gives it 9.2" of snow.

What's the average?

Cp and his statistical mind. NICE !!!! LOL !
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Post by RJB8525 Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:35 am

right now forecasted on Sunday is snow showers 50% chance, and Monday partly cloudy
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:04 am

12z NAM 

February 22nd Snow Possible  Namconus_asnow_neus_28

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:15 am

February 22nd Snow Possible  Nam_3hr_snow_acc_nyc_29.thumb.png.a382d95767f87c87ac335a11ec010f94

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:52 am

Frank,

Glad to hear yuo are feeling better and thanks for posting even during this time.

GFS goes south again with this clipper.

UKMET needs to hold serve here.


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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:58 am

Welcome back Frank, your a trooper to already be back in action.
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 19, 2016 11:59 am

Welcome back Frank! Get some rest and I hope you feel 100% soon!

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 19, 2016 12:23 pm

CMC brings it north

February 22nd Snow Possible  CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f66

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 19, 2016 12:26 pm

Ukie is a whiff looks like the GFS
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 19, 2016 12:27 pm

@algae888 wrote:Ukie is a whiff looks like the GFS

Yes south - see what euro has this afternoon.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 19, 2016 12:31 pm

@amugs wrote:CMC brings it north

February 22nd Snow Possible  CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f66

A bit weaker/less amped though than last nights run. I feel like if we want to see any snow we need heavier prewcip to cool the column quicker before the precip moves out.

February 22nd Snow Possible  Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11
February 22nd Snow Possible  Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 19, 2016 1:43 pm

Euro - weak but a step in teh right direction towards the NAM and SREFS

February 22nd Snow Possible  ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f66

February 22nd Snow Possible  ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f69

Talking 1-3" N&W of NYC - Slushy - grass and cars type as of now

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Post by Guest Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:57 pm

Mugsy. Your appetizer for the main event looks like some light rain setting the stage for heavy rain later on. Hope the models are wrong. You are definitely the king of optimism, but in late February now with 3 weeks to go, it looks like the glass is 90% empty or in your case 10% full

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:39 pm

The 18z NAM shows Mondays wave being amplified. And most of the precip falls in the overnight hours. Fantastic run, probably 3-6" for most with maybe 8" in parts of NNJ

February 22nd Snow Possible  NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

February 22nd Snow Possible  NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60

February 22nd Snow Possible  NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f63

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