Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

[algae888]

Nws going with rain as precip type for coastal areas even with low east of bm.

[jmanley32]

Nws going with rain as precip type for coastal areas even with low east of bm.

I can see that happening but this is still 5 days out a ton can and will change as u know Al.

[algae888]

Nws going with rain as precip type for coastal areas even with low east of bm.

I can see that happening but this is still 5 days out a ton can and will change as u know Al.

Jman yes. Also hearing euro ens have a lot of nice hits in there

[SoulSingMG]

And to think I'd already declared winter over to my inquiring friends. 

Euro Ensembles are trending on Twitter; benchmark clustering.

[sroc4]

Ens looks amazing right now. Esp if you see the overall trend over the last 4-5runs. Slow and steady tightening up the cluster around the BM

[RJB8525]

Euro!

[Frank_Wx]

Scott has talked in depth about the possible Sunday storm. I'm getting a good look at things tonight and am slightly intrigued. The NAO region is sill transient - with troughs and ridges passing over Greenland - but what I do like is the PNA spike out west.




Here is 12z euro OP vort map valid late Sunday. Notice how the southern energy is tucked into the coast as the northern energy tries to catch it. This was initially a closed upper low that broke apart once it approached the coast. A better phase would show a surface low just off the coast with PLENTY of cold air to work with. The northern energy would bring down fresh arctic air as long as it's able to phase. If this was only southern stream driven it would be mainly rain.



Euro OP brushes the area with light snow at this time. The ENS are pretty impressive though. The GFS is progressive as it usually is the case. The setup is not screaming huge EC storm, but it's intriguing and we'll continue to watch it. Understand the threat is there for a sizeable winter storm Sunday into Monday next week.

[jmanley32]

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/storm-to-threaten-east-coast-s

bernie is intrigued, thinking the gfs is not showing this right, the 500mb def shows something diff than surface. Yes its old so based on 12z.

[SoulSingMG]

Euro EPS!!! 

[jmanley32]

Euro EPS!!! 

yes the control brings a 6-12 to the area, less than 00z but still same area.

[jmanley32]

still a spread but def big cluster around benchmark and some absolute bombs.

[Snow88]

Deja Vu?


March 19-21, 1958

March 20-21, 2016?

[Snow88]

GFS looks similiar to 18z. Just a little flat.

[Snow88]

Ukie is way OTS

[sroc4]

Quick update.  Thegeneral trend/consensus at this time is to graze eastern sections and/or was OTS.  Here is the Euro.

No interaction between two pieces of energy such that by the time the S piece reaches the coast the N piece acts to shunt it OTS.





00z GFS similar, but 06Z there is more interaction; result is a shift west on 06z this morning(hopefully starting this trend:






One of two, or both, things needs to happen.  1) The blocking upstream needs to hold on 12-24hrs longer such that it allows the southern stream to slow enough to allow the two energies to interact and/or 2) The ridging down stream in the west, which looks pretty good already, cont to trend stronger, leading to the N piece digging deeper and phasing into the S piece instead of staying N and acting to shunt the system OTS.  As it stands this is going to be yet again very close.  Minor changes in the modeling could still have huge implications for better or worse.   My first call on the system is to say it looks to be a close call but ultimately swing and miss with maybe eastern most sections being grazed; HOWEVER, with still a lot of time left a more impactful soln is still on the table.  With the vast majority of the energy involved about 24-36hrs +/- hrs away from being fully sampled I will cont to monitor and update should it be necessary.  If the trends is further OTS I may not say much.

[weatherwatchermom]

Scott Thank you for the write up!!

I am attaching Bernie Rayno's take as well

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/last-gasp-of-winter-storm-to-t

[algae888]

6z para gfs is west. Over 1 inch le. it is much quicker and starts by late morning Sunday so precipitation type issues might be a problem both the 6 Z GFS and para GFS shifted West let's see if the other models continue today

[sroc4]

Scott Thank you for the write up!!

I am attaching Bernie Rayno's take as well

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/last-gasp-of-winter-storm-to-t

Your welcome.  I love his videos.  Havent had a chance to watch this mornings yet though. FWIW NAM extrapolated (which I hate doing) looks like there is room for this sytem to come up the coast.  Notice how the heights along the EC are much higher relative to the flatter GFS.  Look how much further north the 546 line is.  This gives room for the surface LP to track more N than E.  

GFS:



NAM:

[nutleyblizzard]

12z GFS came in further west. A few inches fall in NYC metro with more out in Long Island. Even so, it should of depicted a much better run if you look at the H5 levels which are much improved.

[Dunnzoo]

This is getting interesting for sure....

[algae888]

Cmc similar to the GFS although much stronger 980 millibar low just east of Long Island. crushes eastern Long Island conn and mass

[algae888]

The UKIE is a bomb 977 MB over Cape Cod. Hard to tell with the 24-hour panels but it looks well West and maybe Too Far West but it's a bomb
Edit 1006 MB right on the South Carolina coast at hour 96 977 Mb just Northwest of Cape Cod in the southern and Eastern Gulf of Maine so how to figure when it bombs out if it's south of us East of us or north of us but great run

[jmanley32]

CMC is actually 968 mb according to 12z on wxbell and RI MA get 2 feet! Decdnt westward movement on both GFS and CMC.

[jmanley32]

Well is 968 at its lowest off cape cod, 980 south of LI.

[algae888]

Well is 968 at its lowest off cape cod, 980 south of LI.

Jman also precipitation shield on the Western and Northern flank doesn't look right it should be more expensive with the low that strength so close to Eastern Long Island

[jmanley32]

Does wxbell have ukmet, I can't seem to find it they usally have much finer 3 to 6 hr steps.

[sroc4]

There is no denying the west trend today. Lets see what euro say. Interesting to say the least Janet.

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