2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

00z NAM at 84 hours. Also, H5 vort max intensity resembles Euro more than GFS

Nam looks more north than the other models IMO

Snow88 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

Snow88 wrote:As of right now, this doesnt look to have a big impact on the east coast

This was never an east coast threat. We're going to end up with temps in the 90s this weekend thanks to that ridge. That said, if invest 99 does become a hurricane and tracks into the Gulf, we can't rule out a recurve of its remnants heading this way

Like the Euro
7
6+ inches of rain for the area

the euro showed a ton of rain and strong ts force conditions with verbatim gusts 70 plus. But tgats a big if. It depends obviously on how soon the recurve happens how much land interaction or if it's ots cuz it's far enpugh east.

So we are completely in the clear from a direct ec hit? It's Def go trip over fl it's after thst tgat we need to watch possibly?

Id saw theres close chances for the storm to either dissipate due to island landfalls, or if it stays a bit north possibly a Florida and/or gulf coast landfall with much moisture overspreading the eastern 1/3 of the us. The other remote possibility is a storm that landfalls around Florida, but quickly turns NE over the very warm Atl. Gulf stream and re-stregnthens while passing close to the east coast depending on how negative the trailing trough is and if it can "capture" the system. Latest ARW shows a double barreled hurricane, obv. Not going to happen that way but imo a distinction the models are having a hard time figuring out what circulation will emerge dominant on the current strung out low, and that will definately impact track. Something to certainly keep an eye on the next few days.

0z GFS has 99L dipping into then riding up through central Florida then back out and up the coast, What the heck? That's wacky

Current PR Radar

Ok now we have 00z euro into gom and landfall as a cat 4 on the LA tx botder which is really bad but isn't thst way to far west? 00z gfs takes its time fimally develops it off SC runs coast and ots. Models don't have a clue. Hwrf has a strong hurricane on southern tip fl. Gfs fan tr asyland has a mammoth monster headed to fl in lr. Nothing to do with 99l.

Euro last night. Cat 3 or 4 landfall in LA. Holy...

Honestly the biggest difference between the Euro and the GFS regarding intensity is the amount of dry air ingested by the system at various points.  The current observations up through this point have not supported the GFS soln IMO.  When the vorticity makes it into the Bahamas hr 84 followed by hr 132.  The dryer air is held much further north on the Euro vs the GFS which makes all the difference.  







Regarding track with the consistency in the modeling regarding the weakness in the ridge over the Rockies and positioning of the ridge off the EC a more westward track into the GOM under the ridge without question seems more likely to me vs the quickly recurving soln and re-emergence of the EC the 00z GFS showed last night.

Even though the Convection looks more consolidated, which is def good, it looks like the surface center is N & W of the convection.  Click on the link to see the loop.  The LLC is not officially closed off I believe but looks much tighter than it did yesterday when it was more of an elongated wave, and is located due east of Puerto Rico (PR):

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-64.89,17.31,3000



There is still a modest amt of wind shear from west to east North of PR(red lines) and the Greater Antilles and the BVI.  This is preventing the convection from centering over top the LLC which is needed.    
There is however an anticyclone in the upper levels just to the south of the LLC and just to the west of where the best convection is.  



99l still has some work to do, but it is holding strong given the conditions.  Need that LLC to head WNW to NW to avoid going right over PR which I believe it will.  Next 24-48 hrs holds a major key to the outcome of this system.

NHC upped chances to 60/80 at the 8am advisory. I'd say they are thinking this likely develops.

Thanks for all the posts and maps gang, limited internet in SSP so I have to go mobile which is NOT FUN when trying to look at models! Lol Hoping I don't have to cut short my vaca Labor Day weekend....

If it hits Hispanolia it will be shredded by the mountains and becomes nada.
Fun tracking these beasts!!

Hey guys!

aiannone wrote:Hey guys!

Alex!

I apologize for my lack of posting. Last semester was very busy for me with transferring schools and all, and this summer was nothing but busy and work, work, work. But I'm back in Binghamton at school. Class starts tomorrow and I will do my best to post. Don't worry, I've still been tracking everything, just havent been posting. The Long Island North Shore flood the other day was intense. 3.86" of rain at my house, no power for 8 hours, and cars were submerged on hilly roads.

mugs most models and the sgetti keep it north of hispanola, and its not far from there so it wont be long before we know, IMO it misses to the north, which will only add fuel to the fire, if there is a fire to fuel. HH recon has found 45-50kt winds, LLC is separated from main convection though. May not be well enough to develop to a TD, or even TS with those winds. But high chance I think is a good bet at this time.

On another note check this out....Both GFS and Euro have it, at this far out that's not really good,

Either the GFS is completely lost or it scores the coup.

sroc4 wrote:Either the GFS is completely lost or it scores the coup.  

GFS has been trending west with Gaston. Maybe Gaston is messing up 99L on the runs.

Well as of 8am the sgetti models are def all over the place now showing gulf or EC. Blah this is really annoying. HH have found a LLC but the convection is having a hard time keeping up and its exposed. But it will clear Haiti as it is already north of PR and moving WNW. TS winds have been found and I saw pics from the islands with some wind damage, so TS conditions are happening regardless of a name or not.

Ukie is more east and weaker on the `12z run

Could Gaston play a roll?

12z, some shifting to the east, interesting, will this ridge not be as strong as thought and could this become a EC threat at least to the SE coast?

Snow88 wrote:Ukie is more east and weaker on the `12z run

Could Gaston play a roll?

Gaston was much further west on runs, but I don't believe he will get to Bermuda west or even further, but that could def keep 99L going more west or maybe even a bit North. And that ridge, seems to be changing on its intensity from run to run. Def complex setup here and zeroing in on 5 days or less not a whole lot of time, this could well pull a fast on on the US, or not.

Your telling me 99L isn't strengthening, look it just found 55kt winds.....GFS is LOST sroc, I am sorry but I think to a degree all the models are lost either on track intensity, initialization placement. Something is messing it all up.

Recon mission so far, def plenty TS winds.