Hurricane Hermine Discussion

I don't care if it's tropical or not I saw what the 92' norlester did and it wasn't pretty

18z GFS surface winds, 20-30ish mph sustained in general, probably gusts in the 40s.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016083118&fh=90&xpos=36&ypos=109

NjWeatherGuy wrote:18z GFS surface winds, 20-30ish mph sustained in general, probably gusts in the 40s.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016083118&fh=90&xpos=36&ypos=109

at this time. Could b higher could b lower. Probably not lower thpugh. That's nothing though what u stated. I agree with skins thst it may intensify and models not showing this now. We will see I could b very wrong.

Nhc on Sunday has it 50 mph sustained weakening to 45mph su stained at end of cone. They don't show on nhc page but u can find it.

Mugs, I know haha I didn't take that literally don't worry lmao and I am also worried that the models may not be entirely picking up on all of the dynamics at play, and would not be surprised if we see winds increase a bit and pressure drop. I was gonna say that earlier but didn't want to hype lol I don't think it goes buck wild, but certainly some increase.

Accuwx app first mention now for area sunday.

rb924119 wrote:Mugs, I know haha I didn't take that literally don't worry lmao and I am also worried that the models may not be entirely picking up on all of the dynamics at play, and would not be surprised if we see winds increase a bit and pressure drop. I was gonna say that earlier but didn't want to hype lol I don't think it goes buck wild, but certainly some increase.

rb great u know I bust chops an dkid around on here. Thanks for not taking it personally l.
Backb to the atorm, the 250 jet streak overhead is going to enhance this storm, by how much is anyone's guess but I am inclined to go with a moderate TS situation at this time for most of NJ. If it can get off the coast by the VA Capes and head in a nne direction it can pull and feat on some of that trop water we have sitting here off the coast. The models will STRUGGLE with the dynamics as usual but let's not take wind or rain maps verbatim. Keep it general, moderate flooding, TS force winds and rains. Particulars are more for this time tomorrow imho. That Backbtobthe N has to be watched for it will have BIG implications on this storm for us in duration, retrigrading, stalling, path etc.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10209092175836037&id=1067911494

Now this would be bad to destructive!!

amugs wrote:Now this would be bad to destructive!!

mugs what am I looking at here? Never seen that b4. Ypu all keep talking bout nj but what effects in and around nyc could we see also li hasn't been mentioned. Surprised syo not around he wanted a tropical system last year lol.

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Mugs, I know haha I didn't take that literally don't worry lmao and I am also worried that the models may not be entirely picking up on all of the dynamics at play, and would not be surprised if we see winds increase a bit and pressure drop. I was gonna say that earlier but didn't want to hype lol I don't think it goes buck wild, but certainly some increase.

rb great u know I bust chops an dkid around on here. Thanks for not taking it personally l.
Backb to the atorm, the 250 jet streak overhead is going to enhance this storm, by how much is anyone's guess but I am inclined to go with a moderate TS situation at this time for most of NJ. If it can get off the coast by the VA Capes and head in a nne direction it can pull and feat on some of that trop water we have sitting here off the coast. The models will STRUGGLE with the dynamics as usual but let's not take wind or rain maps verbatim. Keep it general, moderate flooding, TS force winds and rains.  Particulars are more for this time tomorrow imho. That Backbtobthe N has to be watched for it will have BIG implications on this storm for us in duration, retrigrading, stalling, path etc.

Are you kidding? Of course I know you kid around- we all do!! That's what makes this forum great, we can all have a good laugh more often than not lmao but I definitely agree with everything you just said.

8pm 50 mph ts now. Steadily intensifying.

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 87.4 West. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center will be near
the coast in the warning area Thursday night.

Recent reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
36 hours, and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time
landfall occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center, mainly to the east and southeast.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches

I'm a little skeptical of its impact on us. More often than not these tropical systems/post-tropical systems over the southeast seem to accelerate and exit stage-right to the south of us before getting this far north and we at worst get clipped by the northern fringe of clouds and wind. I could easily see this fly off the coast of NC/VA OTS and largely miss us. (Maybe wishful thinking since I'm supposed to be at the shore this weekend. Lol)

billg315 wrote:I'm a little skeptical of its impact on us. More often than not these tropical systems/post-tropical systems over the southeast seem to accelerate and exit stage-right to the south of us before getting this far north and we at worst get clipped by the northern fringe of clouds and wind. I could easily see this fly off the coast of NC/VA OTS and largely miss us. (Maybe wishful thinking since I'm supposed to be at the shore this weekend. Lol)

Yeah well the problem with a exit stage right is the blocking and the capture it has no where to go. The blocking looks to be no joke.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

billg315 wrote:I'm a little skeptical of its impact on us. More often than not these tropical systems/post-tropical systems over the southeast seem to accelerate and exit stage-right to the south of us before getting this far north and we at worst get clipped by the northern fringe of clouds and wind. I could easily see this fly off the coast of NC/VA OTS and largely miss us. (Maybe wishful thinking since I'm supposed to be at the shore this weekend. Lol)

Yeah well the problem with a exit stage right is the blocking and the capture it has no where to go. The blocking looks to be no joke.

Correctangular here Skins, bimg has a point BUT the blockING by the HP systems to the north hold this at bay that is why we see the stall off the ACY, jersey shore and a trough in the Midwest captures tuggs the system back due to very weak steering currents this time of year.

Bernie Rayno..is funny...but he just did an updated video about an hour ago..he explains what he sees happening...with the blocking and calling it a nor easter...
https://twitter.com/accurayno?lang=en

weatherwatchermom wrote:Bernie Rayno..is funny...but he just did an updated video about an hour ago..he explains what he sees happening...with the blocking and calling it a nor easter...
https://twitter.com/accurayno?lang=en

real professional video lol, So he thinks midtlantic and maybe not southern New England so does that take NYC out of the picture or is NYC considered part of the midatlantic, I believe NY is considered a midatlantic state, though its the last one before southern new england.

jmanley32 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Bernie Rayno..is funny...but he just did an updated video about an hour ago..he explains what he sees happening...with the blocking and calling it a nor easter...
https://twitter.com/accurayno?lang=en

real professional video lol, So he thinks midtlantic and maybe not southern New England so does that take NYC out of the picture or is NYC considered part of the midatlantic, I believe NY is considered a midatlantic state, though its the last one before southern new england.

he was funny like he had had a couple...usually more professional...southern NE is considered. Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island ...

https://www.facebook.com/leegoldbergABC7/videos/vb.311624215690792/547008818818996/?type=2&theater¬if_t=live_video¬if_id=1472517071753213

Lee Goldberg's Take

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Now this would be bad to destructive!!

mugs what am I looking at here? Never seen that b4. Ypu all keep talking bout nj but what effects in and around nyc could we see also li hasn't been mentioned. Surprised syo not around he wanted a tropical system last year lol.

IM HERE JMAN. We could use a 2-4" area-wide soaking rain. But I want a Cat 2 right over my house.

If the current models are to be believed this thing essentially stalls over the NJ coast for about two or three days. Since I don't see that happening I'm skeptical of the model's take on the blocking and the track altogether.

Yesterday the models were 300miles east now they are 300miles west. The exact track nor strength into Fla is not nailed down yet so why are we buying todays trend as set in stone? As Bernie would say beware the windshield wiper effect. I agree with Bill for now..near miss for most if not all of us. I'm shot. Ill be back on in a better mood in the am.

sroc4 wrote:Yesterday the models were 300miles east now they are 300miles west.  The exact track nor strength into Fla is not nailed down yet so why are we buying todays trend as set in stone?  As Bernie would say beware the windshield wiper effect.  I agree with Bill for now..near miss for most if not all of us.  I'm shot.  Ill be back on in a better mood in the am.  

get some rest, I have to disagree but we never know.

syosnow94 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Now this would be bad to destructive!!

mugs what am I looking at here? Never seen that b4. Ypu all keep talking bout nj but what effects in and around nyc could we see also li hasn't been mentioned. Surprised syo not around he wanted a tropical system last year lol.

IM HERE JMAN.  We could use a 2-4" area-wide soaking rain.  But I want a Cat 2 right over my house.

Done, but will you settle for a cat 1 if I can arrange it lol

The thing has an impressive overall size already!

https://i.imgur.com/7kwZpDF.gif

So I am surprised Frank said what he said in his blog guess I am not thinking too unrealistically if he is right and models, looks like it could be pretty bad for everyone. 65-70mph wind gusts over 24 hrs is enough to put out a lot of power, do I think it will be more intense personally as suggested...yes I do.

HWO mentioning it for upton already:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
800 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-078-079-176-177-020000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
800 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAY IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.