Hurricane Hermine Discussion

The thing has an impressive overall size already!

https://i.imgur.com/7kwZpDF.gif

So I am surprised Frank said what he said in his blog guess I am not thinking too unrealistically if he is right and models, looks like it could be pretty bad for everyone. 65-70mph wind gusts over 24 hrs is enough to put out a lot of power, do I think it will be more intense personally as suggested...yes I do.

HWO mentioning it for upton already:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
800 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-078-079-176-177-020000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
800 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAY IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

21z SREFs well inland (many members, enough to skew the mean)

met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html#picture

EDIT

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html#picture

Its so friggin hard to copy links on the newest versions of android and chrome now ugh.

But we all know they have this lr bias anyways

NjWeatherGuy wrote:21z SREFs well inland (many members, enough to skew the mean)

met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html#picture

EDIT

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html#picture

Its so friggin hard to copy links on the newest versions of android and chrome now ugh.

That looks extreme Tom. Not so sure it will be that far inland. Trough coming in should try and push it NE along or just off the coast.

What in the world I'm mobile but I'll post but the 00z sgetti are way s and east of the area huh?!

Latest advisory and cone shifted S and E a bit, but I think thats just a wiper effect, it does keep it just off shore of jersey though which is concerning but it goes almost immediately due east. see below, i havent seen that on models. And yes they believe it will be a hurricane as denoted by the H, its now a 60mph TS, and strengthening more than thought. Hurricane warnings are up for fL. So watch out we COULD have a stronger storm on hand. for some reason i cannot post the pic so heres the link.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/212352.shtml?5-daynl#contents

upload is not working, but you can see sgetti is E too, huh, I am guessing this is going to change back west again I do not see a immediate right jerk like that.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_tracks_latest.png

nam, woah,, I dunno why but everytime I try to upload a image it errors out. thats never happened before so I will leave the model image posting to someone else. The nam is strong off VA and headed north at 84hrs.

Some wind and rain for the weekned.... Hermine is going to get ripped apart once it goes inland.

HectorO wrote:Some wind and rain for the weekned.... Hermine is going to get ripped apart once it goes inland.

did you read franks blog?

00z gfs already off, initialized at 1003mb, currently its 998mb.

gfs is east, a good amount too, wow

jmanley32 wrote:

HectorO wrote:Some wind and rain for the weekned.... Hermine is going to get ripped apart once it goes inland.

did you read franks blog?

Yes, and many others. Also METS since late afternoon and early evening still talking about the storm mostly staying inland and as one MET put "will be torn apart by the time it gets here." I don't doubt Frank's predictions or anyone else's for that matter, but we are here to discuss it. I don't think it will be tropical storm strength by the time it gets here, maybe slightly under. As far as the beach goes, of course there will be surges.

Wow GFS has greatly intensified at hr 84 its 994mb and 77kt storm versus 12z at same time was 57kt! a bit further east but its not the final solution, as i said nam was also alot stronger by about 20mph.

HectorO wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

HectorO wrote:Some wind and rain for the weekned.... Hermine is going to get ripped apart once it goes inland.

did you read franks blog?

Yes, and many others. Also METS since late afternoon and early evening still talking about the storm mostly staying inland and as one MET put "will be torn apart by the time it gets here." I don't doubt Frank's predictions or anyone else's for that matter, but we are here to discuss it. I don't think it will be tropical storm strength by the time it gets here, maybe slightly under. As far as the beach goes, of course their will be surges.

totally respect your opinion but I disagree, it wont be a purely TS but have same impacts like frank stated yes, and latest GFS is just offshore so it intensifies a lot more.

Wow 993mb, 80kt gusts, offshore but gets very close skimming nj nyc li.!

69.8 kts sustained at highest pt, cat 1 i believe.

Very close to being a hurricane hit on the area on 00z GFS, came bit to far east to have full impacts, I think tomorrow it may go back west a bit. IMO the far east run then the far west was too much, now its adjusting to a final spot. This may not be good, 12z tomorrow go be very telling.

okay GN this storm is frustrating me, cmc is also east.

Ukie is way further east and doesn't retrogade back

Every model went east tonight

Check back tomorrow for new solutions lol

Models up with new solutions tonight, stronger but further east. Some still trying to retrograde like the CMC but much further to the east, far from set in stone, we will see where guidance takes it by this time tomorrow night. Right now its a shot in the dark.

Not a ton of movement and still looks to battle shear and dry air.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-avn.html

0z GEFS hr 84

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016090100&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=344

0z GEFS members hr 90, some quite scary, some not so much, as you can see quite a spread, far from locked in.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F090.html

euro really bombs out hermine sub 970 but keeps it offshore. sits there for five days. can this be possible? worst looks to be beach erosion as we will be spared of major impacts as we will be on west side of a cat 2 hurricane per euro.

actually looks like hermine will be extra tropical we it gets here. strongest winds on west side and not that impressive at 850mb. strongest winds stay offshore.