Hurricane Hermine Discussion

euro really bombs out hermine sub 970 but keeps it offshore. sits there for five days. can this be possible? worst looks to be beach erosion as we will be spared of major impacts as we will be on west side of a cat 2 hurricane per euro.

actually looks like hermine will be extra tropical we it gets here. strongest winds on west side and not that impressive at 850mb. strongest winds stay offshore.

really not that impressive from nws official forecast.
INIT 01/0300Z 25.8N 87.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 26.9N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 28.7N 85.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 30.7N 83.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/0000Z 32.8N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/0000Z 37.0N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 05/0000Z 39.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/0000Z 39.0N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

whats impressive is the duration of system at our latitude. really going to mess up the beaches

Another solution becoming very possible now is like the 6z NAM and 0z CMC show, the low closes off and retrogrades, but further south and halts northern progress, due east off the southern Delmarva after the loop, not gonna be an easy forecast.

This may be due to a crawling storm, notice the 6z runs are coming in slower, changing the effects of the capture, perhaps causing it to occur at a lower latitude, and sparing our area for the most part.

I'm very confused right now. Yesterday I it looked like we were going to get hit pretty nicely then I go to sleep to wake up and hear it went way easy. I hope I'm having a bad dream

I'm very confused right now. Yesterday I it looked like we were going to get hit pretty nicely then I go to sleep to wake up and hear it went way easy. I hope I'm having a bad dream

jake732 wrote:I'm very confused right now. Yesterday I it looked like we were going to get hit pretty nicely then I go to sleep to wake up and hear it went way easy. I hope I'm having a bad dream

Is it surprising? The models always do this flip flop, hell they didnt catch on to the blizz of 2016 until it was basically already snowing, surprisingly NAM had it best further out. Tropical systems are no easier, especially when troughs and potential captures are involved. Who knows, maybe the EURO was onto something cutting it off further south and then shunting it east because some of this mornings runs seem to reflect a trend in that direction as well as the NHC cone shifting back to the east again. Nothing is set in stone yet. Another couple days of model watching to go, me thinks the storm slowing down may cause it to close earlier and actually miss our area, but cause worse effects further south, we'll see.

The overnight models displayed a stronger block to the north which suppressed Hermine. However, those solutions would still bring modest winds to our area, some rain, and coastal flooding. There's still another day of model runs to go. I wouldn't discount anything yet. Just prepare for the worst case scenario - which is what my blog spoke about.

It also doesn't help that Hermine looks disorganized still. Two areas of convection. You would think models have an idea where the LLC is by now.

Current recon showing winds now greater than 64 kts in the SE quadrant with the entire SE quadrant approx 55-65kts.  Looks like MSLP is also lower than models overnight indicating.  I said it last night and Ill say it again...no way this thing is finished trending.

sroc4 wrote:Current recon showing winds now greater than 64 kts in the SE quadrant with the entire SE quadrant approx 55-65kts.  Looks like MSLP is also lower than models overnight indicating.  I said it last night and Ill say it again...no way this thing is finished trending.

Yeah Frank you can clearly see that the entire NW quadrant is still devoid of convection. And look how light the winds are on the west side relative to the E

Frank_Wx wrote:It also doesn't help that Hermine looks disorganized still. Two areas of convection. You would think models have an idea where the LLC is by now.

Levi talked about the LLC in last nights video discussion. As of last night he felt it was more oval. He also noted that it may in fact be reforming further east than where models have it. Interesting discussion.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Hurricane warnings now updated for Big Bend area of Fla. Cone of uncertainty above Cape Hatteras Latitude tells all.

Latest recon down to 994 mb.

nutleyblizzard wrote:Latest recon down to 994 mb.

Yeah Nuts this thing is much stronger than models think it is.  6z GFS initialized at 1001MB and has it landfalling at 1000mb.  Look at the wind field now on the recon.  That SE quadrant is really intensifying. 70kts wind just reported.

Shear has dropped off significantly and Upper divergence looks great.

sroc4 wrote:Shear has dropped off significantly and Upper divergence looks great.

The forecast was for the shear to increase once Hermine approaches the Florida panhandle. Remains to be seen if the lack of shear is temporary or not. Nonetheless, this is the window of time where we might see some Rapid intensification.

Looks like there is still dry air attempting to attack the NW side...

nutleyblizzard wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Shear has dropped off significantly and Upper divergence looks great.

The forecast was for the shear to increase once Hermine approaches the Florida panhandle. Remains to be seen if the lack of shear is temporary or not. Nonetheless, this is the window of time where we might see some Rapid intensification.

How ironic right?  All the while as 99L was traversing N of the carribean the shear was forecast to drop off on the northern flank and it never did.  Now its in an area where the shear was forcast to pick up some and its dropping off. It doent look like there is any reason for shear to increase dramatically over the next 24hrs so like you said this is the window.

Hey guys so is there any chance this may move back west a bit not as far as yesterday or are we go have a cat 2 tease me for 5 freaking days offshore lol. Def intensifying I knew it would it's over gulf. Imo the models don't have it right.

jmanley32 wrote:Hey guys so is there any chance this may move back west a bit not as far as yesterday or are we go have a cat 2 tease me for 5 freaking days offshore lol. Def intensifying I knew it would it's over gulf. Imo the models don't have it right.

Jman no set track

Yeah figured wow just amazes me we are 3 to 4 days away and don't know. I remember back in the day by now we would have a good idea. I guess we know it's coming in the general direction. Wcs I was think what if euro intensity and stall happened but more to n and west which put us well into it and it spins over us for 120 hrs. Yeah righ...But imagine? Wouldn't actally b surprised to see it back to 12z yesterday today. Anythimg on table I guess at this pt.

As for slow movement it's sped up to I think 12 mph which is on track and not all that slow. O6z gfs still has impacts close to Franks call even being offshore cuz it's huge. This is go b so cool to track after passes fl.

Local radio writing it off big mistake

skinsfan1177 wrote:Local radio writing it off big mistake

we have no trends one run went west now comes east I agree not smart.

The Euro would be devestating to the coast if it was slightly more west