Hurricane Hermine Discussion

skinsfan1177 wrote:When do we sound the alarms here for people to prepare

I want to know too, cuz theres no way I wanna get stuck in the grocery store as my wife insists I go shopping if go be bad out.

GEFS SAY HI!! ONLY IF THIS WAS WINTER MADONNE!!

amugs wrote:EURO WILL DESTROY OUR COASTS IF THIS VERIFIES - ALL THE WORK FROM POST SANDY BYE BYE - GSP BECOMES PART OF THE HOTLANTIC - HOLY FN EURO MY GOD!!
iT GETS STUCK TRAPPED BY THE NUMEROUS HP'S HANGING ALLOVER TEHPLACE LIKE BABESON THE STREET CORNER IN NYC BACK IN THE 70'S AND 80'S!!!

Ditto to that mugs, and IMO I think it may go a bit more north than that before pushing south, if it does end up going south. Crazy crazy run, never seen a tropical cuclone sit off the coast for a week.

Alignment of the models
GFS,EURO, GEM, GEFS and EURO ENS - UKIE coming around to the retrograde.

IF I live along the coast I would start to get things in order and I think after Frank our fearless leader digests the model runs and data from today he will concur.
They ain't going to sound the alarms until Friday night or Saturday morning but we are always ahead of the curve on this board - VIVA NJ STRONG!!!!

amugs wrote:EURO WILL DESTROY OUR COASTS IF THIS VERIFIES - ALL THE WORK FROM POST SANDY BYE BYE - GSP BECOMES PART OF THE HOTLANTIC - HOLY FN EURO MY GOD!!
iT GETS STUCK TRAPPED BY THE NUMEROUS HP'S HANGING ALLOVER TEHPLACE LIKE BABESON THE STREET CORNER IN NYC BACK IN THE 70'S AND 80'S!!!

Can you imagine if this beast can make it another 50 miles north? Not a lot to ask for with this event still 72 hours away.

Winds Sustained at 75mph

syosnow94 wrote:PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE SHOW ME A RUN LIKE THIS IN 4 MONTHS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YES!!!!syo what a waste of winds and moisture to have it occur now

When do u think we see tropical storm watches go uo

We have to be very responsible when putting out a forecast for a system like this. While this looks like a disaster for the Jersey Shore South through the Delmarva areas north of New York City could have partly sunny skies with a Gusty northwest wind

000
WTNT64 KNHC 011854
TCUAT4

HURRICANE HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
155 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds in Hermine have increased to near 75
mph (120 km/h). Based on these data, Hermine is now upgraded to a
hurricane, the fourth hurricane of 2016 in the Atlantic basin.


SUMMARY OF 155 PM CDT...1855 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 85.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

So do you guts think we should do what we need to also up here in nyc area? I see worst on jersey Shore but those winds are not far from b higher than 50 mph gusts and a lot more rain into this area. I just need stick up on some food if I can't b out driving etc this weekend. I guess I'll need it either way so might as well. Do it today I imagine al that our stores will b nuts tomorrow. Maybe even tonight.

strrrrrrengthening !!

se quad AT 988 AND DROPPING LIKE A FRICKIN ROCK - MUCH LOWER THAN ALL GLOBALS HAD AT THIS JUNCTURE

Al u really think we will b sunny? Im.moving to south jersey lol

amugs wrote:se quad AT 988 AND DROPPING LIKE A FRICKIN ROCK - MUCH LOWER THAN ALL GLOBALS HAD AT THIS JUNCTURE

yep as I said I wonder how much this is effecting model output.

jmanley32 wrote:Al u really think we will b sunny? Im.moving to south jersey lol

Yes West of I 287 in Jersey and north of I-287 in New York will be on The Fringe of the storm maybe even the immediate New York City area and Long Island as currently modeled. Unless this storm makes landfall between Atlantic City and Long Island they should be spared. the immediate Coast however should have mandatory evacuations. New Jersey coast that is

WEST SIDE RAMPING UP - WOULD NOR SURPRISED IF IT GETS TO CAT 2 - NOT HYPE JUST LOOKING AT THE DATA

As modeled now al. I wouldn't let guard down a 50 mile track further north or nw would mean a lot more. And I'm go by Franks writeup until.I hear otherwise but I respect ur opinion.

amugs wrote:WEST SIDE RAMPING UP - WOULD NOR SURPRISED IF IT GETS TO CAT 2 - NOT HYPE JUST LOOKING AT THE DATA

Not hyping at all mugs it's intensifying fast. Still not sold on nyc area being out of the woods. I'll wait another day to see.

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Al u really think we will b sunny? Im.moving to south jersey lol

Yes West of  I 287 in Jersey and north of I-287 in New York will be on The Fringe of the storm maybe even the immediate New York City area and Long Island as currently modeled. Unless this storm makes landfall between Atlantic City and Long Island they should be spared. the immediate Coast however should have mandatory evacuations. New Jersey coast that is

Hey Al. A storm of this magnitude located off the Delmarva, ABSOLUTELY brings heave rain up through all of Jersey, SENY and most of CT. Jersey shore impacts would absolutely be worse, but IF it tracks as currently modeled I think you may be underestimating it's N and NW reach.

syosnow94 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Al u really think we will b sunny? Im.moving to south jersey lol

Yes West of  I 287 in Jersey and north of I-287 in New York will be on The Fringe of the storm maybe even the immediate New York City area and Long Island as currently modeled. Unless this storm makes landfall between Atlantic City and Long Island they should be spared. the immediate Coast however should have mandatory evacuations. New Jersey coast that is

Hey Al.  A storm of this magnitude located off the Delmarva, ABSOLUTELY brings heave rain up through all of Jersey, SENY and most of CT.  Jersey shore impacts would absolutely be worse, but IF it tracks as currently modeled I think you may be underestimating it's N and NW reach.

I agree syo. And it won't take much to get it even more north like mugs said 50 miles and he'll lot eorse. Who knows too maybe the high doesn't suppress ot as much. Can't believe 2 to 3 days away and we don't know for sure.

HPC forecast from NWS shows Hermine to be just off of Delmarva day 3 and then it takes 4 DAYS to make it to the Benchmark.  Something is way off.  They only forecast 1.5-2.5" of rain for the Jersey coast and LI with a 4 day storm. I don't care what strength it is, you cannot have those two things together. 4 days of drizzle would add up to those totals for petes sake.

Thread change title to hurricane

Wow

jmanley32 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Al u really think we will b sunny? Im.moving to south jersey lol

Yes West of  I 287 in Jersey and north of I-287 in New York will be on The Fringe of the storm maybe even the immediate New York City area and Long Island as currently modeled. Unless this storm makes landfall between Atlantic City and Long Island they should be spared. the immediate Coast however should have mandatory evacuations. New Jersey coast that is

Hey Al.  A storm of this magnitude located off the Delmarva, ABSOLUTELY brings heave rain up through all of Jersey, SENY and most of CT.  Jersey shore impacts would absolutely be worse, but IF it tracks as currently modeled I think you may be underestimating it's N and NW reach.

I agree syo. And it won't take much to get it even more north like mugs said 50 miles and he'll lot eorse. Who knows too maybe the high doesn't suppress ot as much. Can't believe 2 to 3 days away and we don't know for sure.

Not really that hard to believe. I grew up going through hurricanes. When I was in jacksonville Floyd was supposed to be a direct hit at Cat 4 and literally a day before the storm took a sharp turn and slammed into the carolinas. We still got hit with tropical storm like force but in Florida the tropical storm was nothing for us.