Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

by **HectorO** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:11 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
algae888 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Al u really think we will b sunny? Im.moving to south jersey lol
Yes West of I 287 in Jersey and north of I-287 in New York will be on The Fringe of the storm maybe even the immediate New York City area and Long Island as currently modeled. Unless this storm makes landfall between Atlantic City and Long Island they should be spared. the immediate Coast however should have mandatory evacuations. New Jersey coast that is

Hey Al. A storm of this magnitude located off the Delmarva, ABSOLUTELY brings heave rain up through all of Jersey, SENY and most of CT. Jersey shore impacts would absolutely be worse, but IF it tracks as currently modeled I think you may be underestimating it's N and NW reach.
I agree syo. And it won't take much to get it even more north like mugs said 50 miles and he'll lot eorse. Who knows too maybe the high doesn't suppress ot as much. Can't believe 2 to 3 days away and we don't know for sure.

Not really that hard to believe. I grew up going through hurricanes. When I was in jacksonville Floyd was supposed to be a direct hit at Cat 4 and literally a day before the storm took a sharp turn and slammed into the carolinas. We still got hit with tropical storm like force but in Florida the tropical storm was nothing for us.

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:11 pm

snow247 wrote:Wow

wow further north and these models cab b taken more seriously in this time frame

by **algae888** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:15 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
algae888 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Al u really think we will b sunny? Im.moving to south jersey lol
Yes West of I 287 in Jersey and north of I-287 in New York will be on The Fringe of the storm maybe even the immediate New York City area and Long Island as currently modeled. Unless this storm makes landfall between Atlantic City and Long Island they should be spared. the immediate Coast however should have mandatory evacuations. New Jersey coast that is

Hey Al. A storm of this magnitude located off the Delmarva, ABSOLUTELY brings heave rain up through all of Jersey, SENY and most of CT. Jersey shore impacts would absolutely be worse, but IF it tracks as currently modeled I think you may be underestimating it's N and NW reach.

Yes obviously track could change but looking at GFS total precip the areas I mentioned are under an inch of rain through the entire event CMC is similar don't have euro data

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:21 pm

Just don't know how strong that HP to the north will be and how it suppresses the storm. More of a nowcast I think, have to watch the upper levels. Too bad I'm leaving Seaside Park on Saturday morning, would like to see the surf. But I'm sure we are going to have a LOT of company coming up the Parkway early Saturday.

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:26 pm

snow247 wrote:Wow

woah that b big impacts for nj and nyc even into hudson valley. Those likely 40 to 50 mph sustained in purple. I still think Franks forecast is on pt for now.

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:29 pm

A now cast for this would not b a good thing especially if it's on the worse end of things. But dunno I kinda have to agree with u. We are less than 72 hrs out and still not sure.

by **amugs** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:29 pm

If this verifies JMAN would ___________ fill in the blank!!

Hurricane Hermine Discussion - Page 18 CrSrkyrUMAAng-w

by **amugs** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:31 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Just don't know how strong that HP to the north will be and how it suppresses the storm. More of a nowcast I think, have to watch the upper levels. Too bad I'm leaving Seaside Park on Saturday morning, would like to see the surf. But I'm sure we are going to have a LOT of company coming up the Parkway early Saturday.

Talking already about mandatory evac for Atlantic and Cape May counties - they could move this to Ocean too IMO

by **amugs** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:33 pm

It seems to be fast than progged which is what the latest HCANE models are showing - this would mean that the storm can push further North as depicted on the GFDL run - if that happens then holy mother of mercy for the NYC Metro area is all I can say.
The HP does not have teh strength to suppress it as much - i fit is slower then we see what is being modelled.
We shall see...

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:39 pm

amugs wrote:It seems to be fast than progged which is what the latest HCANE models are showing - this would mean that the storm can push further North as depicted on the GFDL run - if that happens then holy mother of mercy for the NYC Metro area is all I can say.
The HP does not have teh strength to suppress it as much - i fit is slower then we see what is being modelled.
We shall see...

I've heard gfdl and hwrf can do ok. I'd like to see hwrf as I put more stock in ot. LaSt run was well east.

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:42 pm

12z hwrf is a miss for all ots. I don't buy that.

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:44 pm

jmanley32 wrote:12z hwrf is a miss for all ots. I don't buy that.

also gfdl initialized at 985mb the closest any model has. Let's see what happens.

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:45 pm

Oh boy frank put in storm mode! I'm glad he do update tonight. I didn't want wait till tomorrow lol.

by **algae888** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:48 pm

18z nam misses the entire area up until 3 Z on Monday. That's a major shift East

by **aiannone** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:49 pm

Tropical Storm Watches now up for NJ

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:51 pm

Everyone here downplaying it

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:52 pm

aiannone wrote:Tropical Storm Watches now up for NJ

wow already! And al it's the Nam lol but this is go all over the place so anything seems still b on table.

by **amugs** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:53 pm

Hurricane Hermine Discussion - Page 18 153730W5_NL_sm.gif.aa00b1caba0f2cf3f1c0e9c05f7f3203

OH BOY !!

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:54 pm

How can anyone along coast prepare with no consistency

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:56 pm

amugs wrote:

OH BOY !!

is that track slightly more west and still ne. Dunno what they are seeing. Yes skins no consistant this bad. First time ever tropucal entity a few days away at best and no one knows.

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:

OH BOY !!
is that track slightly more west and still ne. Dunno what they are seeing. Yes skins no consistant this bad. First time ever tropucal entity a few days away at best and no one knows.

Jman didn't a lot of models show a bad storm today

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:58 pm

Those watches won't take much to get extended ito ny they right on border. The hype starts now in media! A few here downplaying it but I respect their ideas but I have a hunch this going to b on the wcs side of Franks discussion and involve everyone along and just inland if coast maybe far inland depend on size.

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 01, 2016 5:01 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:

OH BOY !!
is that track slightly more west and still ne. Dunno what they are seeing. Yes skins no consistant this bad. First time ever tropucal entity a few days away at best and no one knows.

Jman didn't a lot of models show a bad storm today

Yes but mainly very southern jersey but now nhc has watches up to ny border so I think this go b further north. It's not moving slow and as dunno said it might push high up a bit. I see it intensify too more than models show posdibly. They can't handle the transition to post right now. This is getting exciting and nervous same time.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Sep 01, 2016 5:02 pm

Those along the coast should prepare for the possibility of Hurricane force winds. The likelihood of those types of winds remain slim, since track is unknown, but surge and tropical storm winds look likely.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Sep 01, 2016 5:04 pm

amugs wrote:Alignment of the models
GFS,EURO, GEM, GEFS and EURO ENS - UKIE coming around to the retrograde.

IF I live along the coast I would start to get things in order and I think after Frank our fearless leader digests the model runs and data from today he will concur.
They ain't going to sound the alarms until Friday night or Saturday morning but we are always ahead of the curve on this board - VIVA NJ STRONG!!!!

just got home..had some last minute fun stuff before school starts..on Tues...we stopped at costco on way home to get water and stuff...will start our prep tom..husband off from work....I really hope this thing goes out to sea!!

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 01, 2016 5:05 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Those along the coast should prepare for the possibility of Hurricane force winds. The likelihood of those types of winds remain slim, since track is unknown, but surge and tropical storm winds look likely.

just the beaches frank or a bit inland too? Al was say could n fine in nyc area. I guess I'll let u b and read ur blog tonight but please mention what u expect for my area li etc not just jersey shore. Thpugh they most important.

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