Hurricane Hermine Discussion

nhc cone def shifted west and more north than last nights which was ne. now almost due north and a bit west of 11pm.

jmanley32 wrote:nhc cone def shifted west and more north than last nights which was ne. now almost due north and a bit west of 11pm.

This is what I'm talking about jman

Lets start with track.  latest trends are def to keep the biggest impacts offshore.  Let me be clear there will be impacts in the form of wind, rain, and most significantly will be the beach erosion from the Delmarva through Massachusetts.  But man if you mention the OTS soln it falls on def ears and no one seems to want to even entertain the possibility.  Lets just look at the latest tracks.  And remember there are more than just 2-3models to look at when evaluating tropical systems.  

00z:



6Z:


As far as the Loop d loop track it is not unprecendented in the history of tropical cyclones.  If you look at 500mb youll understand why that happens assuming the 500mb is currently modeled correctly.  Look below.  In the first image you'll notice that currently the 500mb trough is pulling the system north as we speak on a track towards the NC/Delmarva coast.  




But notice that by hr 42 the system is getting ready to split off the main flow.



And becomes completely cutoff from the main westerlies.  Its at this time you must visualize the system spinning on a flat surface analogous to a top spinning on a flat surface.  There is going to be subtle wobbles and it is likely to drift a little but randomly so long as it remains cutoff from the main flow to the north.  Take notice of the trough in the western CONUS.


Eventually it heads east and begins to pick the system back up.  



There really is never a true "capture" of this system.  IMO we are NOT going to see a track that brings this system back into the coast ala Sandy with a true capture by the trough.  Reason being is that there is no longer blocking in the N Atlantic.  There is a + NAO which as you can see leads to the main flow becoming very zonal or flat and the approaching trough is positively tilted and not very deep.  This leads to a track back to the N or maybe a little NNW but eventually NE once its into the westerly's.  The only way this thing makes it back to the coast is if the original track off of NC is tucked in tight along the coast whenit cuts itself off from the main flow.  



Now it is at this time that the system will begin to undergo its transition from warm core to cold core or hybrib or extratropical...whatever the definition.  Take a look at the 500mb temps and notice the cold air wrapping into the system as time moves on.  Watch the cold colors come into the back side, SW side, of the system over time.  






Now there is a final component of this system that needs to be discussed and may not be know until now cast time.  That is the decay of the system.  Normally you want to see a tropical system become "vertically stacked"  meaning you want the surface center, the 850mb center and the 500mb center to be stacked on top of one another in order to allow air to rise throughout the column.  In a purely tropical system this tends to be a positive feedback mechanism allowing it to sustain itself as well as strengthen intesle.  However in a non tropical system like say a Nor' easter this tends to signify the beginning of the end of the system.  When a non tropical gets vertically stacked, for reasons I don't have the time to explain, the system begins to decay over time.  Once this system cuts off, the surface low, 850mb low and 500mb low is forecast, for now, to become vertically stack.  The timing of this, the position of the system etc all could influence how expansive the precip filed actually is and who sees the biggest pracip impacts.  I'm telling you we are not done tracking this system and people who want the worst case scenario needs to entertain the idea that we still may be BBQing amongst the gusty winds on Sunday with the threat of stray rain bands making it into the area.  That said I know that we can have much bigger impacts and that's why I am stressing that we are not don tracking this system.

GEFS more West and North

What's trending lately is the system tries to retrograde further west. I think surge and wind, especially along the coast, is going to be rough. A retrograding tropical system back west will push water inland.

Big 12z runs today

Nice write-up Scott. I just don't get it though. Forget landfall for a minute. The Hurricane Center has an official track of strong tropical storm from off the Virginia Capes due north to well inside the BM over 4 days!!! This would almost ALWAYS bury us with precip. It seems like most on here and even the NWS precip. forecasts are very underwhelming (1.5" for the coastal areas) with a strong storm in this position for (I repeat) 4 FREAKIN DAYS!!! Something doesn't make sense.

I just posted using my iphone with the Puffin browser. I have no 3rd party ad blockers running. I had no pop-ups. Nice synthesis with the images and i too am puzzled with the on and off about rain this weekend in our area. Having lived through several hurricanes, they are no joke and things can get out of hand at shore areas as unfortunately we all know. I pray our shore friends do not get the brunt of the storm, wherever it tracks.

Syo o believe sroc explained it's due to the decay as this is not like a noreaster. But yes I too am puzzled.

Waiting for 8am advisory. Considering the 5am forecast cone, it is possible NYC/LI could be added to the TS Watch.

jmanley32 wrote: Syo o believe sroc explained it's due to the decay as this is not like a noreaster. But yes I too am puzzled.

It's I likely due to the decay via vertical stacking but because it IS like a nor'easter or more appropriately stated NOT true tropical. In a Nor'easter typically the LP center is east of the 500mb center. Ironically when they become vertically stacked typically signifies the strongest point of the storm but if remains vertically stacks leads to the demise or decay of the system. There is a great explanation of this somewhere in my archives. When I find it I'll post it. rb briefly mentioned this decay yesterday I think.

jmanley32 wrote: Syo o believe sroc explained it's due to the decay as this is not like a noreaster. But yes I too am puzzled.

It's I likely due to the decay via vertical stacking but because it IS like a nor'easter or more appropriately stated NOT true tropical. In a Nor'easter typically the LP center is east of the 500mb center. Ironically when they become vertically stacked typically signifies the strongest point of the storm but if remains vertically stacks leads to the demise or decay of the system. There is a great explanation of this somewhere in my archives. When I find it I'll post it. rb briefly mentioned this decay yesterday I think.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote: Syo o believe sroc explained it's due to the decay as this is not like a noreaster. But yes I too am puzzled.

It's I likely due to the decay via vertical stacking but because it IS like a nor'easter or more appropriately stated NOT true tropical. In a Nor'easter typically the LP center is east of the 500mb center. Ironically when they become vertically stacked typically signifies the strongest point of the storm but if remains vertically stacks leads to the demise or decay of the system. There is a great explanation of this somewhere in my archives. When I find it I'll post it. rb briefly mentioned this decay yesterday I think.

There is a very good probability, especially if the system evolves like the Euro, it transitions back to mostly tropical in nature.

Just realized the 00z HWRF initialized 10mb too high and the GFDL 10mb too low with the pressure at that time lol Result? Take a blend and run with it.......I have no more hair left to rip out trying to figure out what this thing and our models are doing lmfao times like these are the ones that separate the hardcore weenies from the casual band wagoners ahaha been trying to do some analysis on mobile but I haven't really been able to. I'm going into work early so I can sit down and really take a good look at things. I'll try to post as much as I can throughout the day.

I do know the water is like a bathtub up here

TICKING WEST - FRANK SAID IT WOULD GET PULLED WEST SO LOOK AT THIS NOW - UMMMM...

It really hasn't Mugs. The Cone of uncertainty expanded. Track still has it S and East of the BM by Wed.

Ace seems to think nyc area could get added to ts watches which would signify to me a more nw movement. Edit. Excuse me meant alex. Didn't Have My cOFFEE lol. Ace said it could go back tropucal which I agree.

When might there be a better handle on this? Trying to determine if I should move my Sunday evening plans to tonight.

jmanley32 wrote:Ace seems to think nyc area could get added to ts watches which would signify to me a more nw movement.

I won't speak for him but LI and N coast of NJ will be in the watch area once the timing is closer. It's like looking at a winter storm watch. It's all about timing. There is no doubt tropical storm force winds sustained and or gusts are likely along the entire coast.

skinsfan1177 wrote:I do know the water is like a bathtub up here

That helps but is its effects being overstated some?
Even if water temps are like southeast water temps its still not the same. Even 80 at this latitude while impressive, isnt the same as same temp in the south. That warm water is shallow here, churn the water up enough and it could turn to 68.

Dtone wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:I do know the water is like a bathtub up here

That helps but is its effects being  overstated some?
Even if water temps are like southeast water temps its still not the same. Even 80 at this latitude while impressive, isnt the same as same temp in the south. That warm water is shallow here, churn the water up enough and it could turn to 68.  

I don't believe so the waters here are warmer than usual and that jet stream will fuel this monster

amugs wrote:TICKING WEST - FRANK SAID IT WOULD GET PULLED WEST SO LOOK AT THIS NOW - UMMMM...

Yeah but note north movement, likely wont make it any farther, it will get kicked east where it stalls, so if its well to the SE, aside from some coastal flooding, not a big deal. Storm center, tightest isobars and wind will mostly be over water per latest guidance.

sroc4 wrote:It really hasn't Mugs. The Cone of uncertainty expanded. Track still has it S and East of the BM by Wed.

True but the position of L in this cone is starting to show a westward curve to it. Albeit not a lot and I am not hyping but just stating that we are starting to see that that it retrogres off the Delmarva and not going ene but also stalls in tjis area. Just my interpretation. NJ coastline down to OC MD shores are the prime zone. Beach erosion will be bad imho due to the hours of water piling up on the shore line, a few high tides in duration with a new moon.
Big 12z suite today but not the final.

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:It really hasn't Mugs. The Cone of uncertainty expanded. Track still has it S and East of the BM by Wed.

True but the position of L in this cone is starting to show a westward curve to it. Albeit not a lot and I am not hyping but just stating that we are starting to see that that it retrogres off the Delmarva and not going ene but also stalls in tjis area. Just my interpretation. NJ coastline down to OC MD shores are the prime zone. Beach erosion will be bad imho due to the hours of water piling up on the shore line, a few high tides in duration with a new moon.
Big 12z suite today but not the final.

I hear ya brother. And I'm not trying to be a debby downer in the other direction either. Next 24hrs will be interesting.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

amugs wrote:TICKING WEST - FRANK SAID IT WOULD GET PULLED WEST SO LOOK AT THIS NOW - UMMMM...

Yeah but note north movement, likely wont make it any farther, it will get kicked east where it stalls, so if its well to the SE, aside from some coastal flooding, not a big deal. Storm center, tightest isobars and wind will mostly be over water per latest guidance.

It will not get kicked east until the trough comes back next week. The latest hurricane models have it recurving now. GFS and Nam shifted west . Lets see if the west shit is real.

When are 12z runs