Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

by **amugs** Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:47 am

IN THE NAVY!!

JB saying Matthew could and will turn into a Monster type storm - hype or reality?? The potential is certainly there.

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:48 am

jmanley32 wrote:So basically Euro is on its own hanging down to the south for over 240 hrs. The suspense is killing me lol. Hopefully we have Mathew today so we get NHC data and cone etc. Wasn't last nights models the first to have recon data in then models?

Not on its own. Its ensembles agree with it on timing but the ensemble mean still leans left of the operational regarding track. A red flag in my book that GFS is wrong

HURRICANE MATTHEW - Page 6 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_watl_11

HURRICANE MATTHEW - Page 6 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_watl_11

HURRICANE MATTHEW - Page 6 Ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_watl_11

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:50 am

Mugs I meant that the GFS had Hermine coming up out of the Gulf and off the coast before Euro. The timing of the impacts and its eventual turn NE out of the Gulf is what the GFS was ahead of the Euro with.

by **amugs** Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:52 am

rb924119 wrote:It does, Scott. Hermine WAS moving northward though while it was in the Gulf prior to landfall, after which it started northeastward once it started becoming embedded in the southwesterly steering flow.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/20160830/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html#picture

But you are definitely correct that it was booking it lol As for the intensity, guidance is certainly suggesting that it will be potent. However, I am leery of just how strong it will be able to get, partially because of how things have been this summer along with its current conditions and battles, but also because of the MJO state. Statistically, and I read a paper on this not too long ago, MJO phases 4-6 are not conducive for monster storms, especially ones that land fall in the US. There have only been a couple. The vast majority of systems are either cat 2 or weaker and most don't even make it.

I read online a poster from another board a met like talking about this BUT the difference in most of those analog years was the HP anomaly waters but as we transition into a more favorable state which we will be heading into that within this transition it does allow for such intensity. So may darn variables at play and MJO is just ONE. As he stated tehre has been a lot of variance if one goes by research simply meteorologically speaking. My head hurts already by this.

by **amugs** Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:53 am

sroc4 wrote:Mugs I meant that the GFS had Hermine coming up out of the Gulf and off the coast before Euro. The timing of the impacts and its eventual turn NE out of the Gulf is what the GFS was ahead of the Euro with.

Gotya brother.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:00 am

Okay sroc, we will see, either way looks that the euro would still effect us even if it is right unless the skew to the left but right now I am not thinking it goes THAT far west. But I guess anything is on the table. If GFS does an about face id be surprised, well not like it hasn't done so before but its been steadfast for over a week now on EC hit. Waiting ever so patiently as I can to see what Euro does as it comes up closer or where it goes.

by **rb924119** Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:03 am

Scott, that is a fair point about there being so much variance an with the analogs. However, the MJO is only progged to be in a suppressed state during this time, and over the past three months has shown a strong tendency to remain out of favorable phases. What it really boils down to is the fact that we are all going to have to strap ourselves in real good and tight to our chairs, because this is certain to be one heck of a roller coaster ride bahaha we can offer hypotheses and conjectures all we want, but in the end we are going to have to wait and see aha We are only as good as our information and intuition allow us to be, so in the infamous words: WE TRACK!!!

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:03 am

I will also bring up Joaquin. GFS as did many other models cont to show an EC landfall, but it was the euro who first sniffed out the fact that is was going to lift harmlessly OTS. It took the other models about 48hrs before they began to catch on. I love thinking about all this crap. The girls in my office are going to hate me for the next 10days as my attention will be split. lol

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:05 am

rb924119 wrote:Scott, that is a fair point about there being so much variance an with the analogs. However, the MJO is only progged to be in a suppressed state during this time, and over the past three months has shown a strong tendency to remain out of favorable phases. What it really boils down to is the fact that we are all going to have to strap ourselves in real good and tight to our chairs, because this is certain to be one heck of a roller coaster ride bahaha we can offer hypotheses and conjectures all we want, but in the end we are going to have to wait and see aha We are only as good as our information and intuition allow us to be, so in the infamous words: WE TRACK!!!

LOL Yes...WE TRACK!! What a Face

And I believe it was Mugsy with the MJO rebuttal. He deserves that credit

by **rb924119** Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:09 am

Indeed it was. Sorry Mugs; I lost track to whom I was responding haha

by **amugs** Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:16 am

This is simply crazy - HTH does this set up say ESCAPE ?? It has to change for such to happen.

HURRICANE MATTHEW - Page 6 F204

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:35 am

sroc4 wrote:I will also bring up Joaquin. GFS as did many other models cont to show an EC landfall, but it was the euro who first sniffed out the fact that is was going to lift harmlessly OTS. It took the other models about 48hrs before they began to catch on. I love thinking about all this crap. The girls in my office are going to hate me for the next 10days as my attention will be split. lol

girls like chocolate...a big box of chocolate to take their attention off of you not paying attention!! lol!

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:42 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
sroc4 wrote:I will also bring up Joaquin. GFS as did many other models cont to show an EC landfall, but it was the euro who first sniffed out the fact that is was going to lift harmlessly OTS. It took the other models about 48hrs before they began to catch on. I love thinking about all this crap. The girls in my office are going to hate me for the next 10days as my attention will be split. lol

girls like chocolate...a big box of chocolate to take their attention off of you not paying attention!!

Thanks for the advise. I already bought them breakfast this am and warned them about what Im tracking. I gave them a little update. told ya

by **amugs** Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:45 am

rb924119 wrote:Indeed it was. Sorry Mugs; I lost track to whom I was responding haha

No problem guys - SROC and Ray I love the discussion and Scott - girls pissed at you cause you're not paying attention to them - you stud!! I hope the Mrs. does not know the goings on in the office - The office - Michael Scott HAHAHA!! Drew Schroot I am the assistant regional manager - no Dwight you are THE ASSISTANT TO the Regional manager!!

by **amugs** Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:57 am

Nice formation should be a trop cyclone Matthew by 11Am update IMO

HURRICANE MATTHEW - Page 6 Rb_lalo-animated

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:23 am

amugs wrote:Nice formation should be a trop cyclone Matthew by 11Am update IMO

Oh ya that looks much better organized. Mugs that post above, are you showing that that pattern shows a escape OTS for Mathew, because you then go on it says it has to change, confused by that post.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:24 am

amugs wrote:Nice formation should be a trop cyclone Matthew by 11Am update IMO

Is it just me or does it look like it may be more north like the GFS is showing? Almost looks like a bit of a WNW component to the whole system.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:26 am

amugs wrote:This is simply crazy - HTH does this set up say ESCAPE ?? It has to change for such to happen.

NVM I get it, but who said this shows escape? I know a few are saying OTS is possible but I think that door is quickly closing.

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:26 am

amugs wrote:Nice formation should be a trop cyclone Matthew by 11Am update IMO

I bet no. Recon still hasnt found a closed low level center yet. Convection and heaviest winds still east and N of where the low level spin is centered likely associated with the mid level center which is much tighter. But dang look at those winds. Already up to 55-60kts

HURRICANE MATTHEW - Page 6 Recon_AF303-02FFA-INVEST

HURRICANE MATTHEW - Page 6 Recon_AF303-02FFA-INVEST

by **amugs** Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:28 am

My boy is going to be reborn in about a 1/2 hour !!!

MATTHEW is in the house !! And he ain't gonna be kind but a wicked one.

HURRICANE MATTHEW - Page 6 CtciJ5uWEAAoOG9

HURRICANE MATTHEW - Page 6 CtciJ5uWEAAoOG9

by **amugs** Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:34 am

Sroc - those 60 plus winds and the LLC which may not be totally present but is showing signs of happening may make them name him. I do not know what how they go about the criteria checklist in doing so but boy those winds are pretty good for an unnamed system.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:35 am

amugs wrote:My boy is going to be reborn in about a 1/2 hour !!!

MATTHEW is in the house !! And he ain't gonna be kind but a wicked one.

Wow, IMO they should name it regardless due to the winds already being a 60mph TS, which btw is higher intensity than I expected, maybe this will be quite intense sooner hence the shift N. sroc may be right though as they do not name without a closed COC.

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:36 am

Dang theres even a few 64-83 kt wind markers in there wow.

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:39 am

Finally. A tropical storm named after me! :-D

NHC Atlantic Ops: "NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew, currently moving through the Windward Islands, at 11 AM EDT."

IT'S OFFICIAL! #MATTHEW

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:41 am

I may have spoke too soon there does look like there is a closed center between the St Vincent and Barbados
HURRICANE MATTHEW - Page 6 Recon_AF303-02FFA-INVEST

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:43 am

Hey lets just skip TD and go right to pretty strong storm, looks like it will be maybe a 50-60 kt storm? We will know shortly. That doesn't happen often, already exceeding expectations a little. sroc u spoke to soon, lol its okay we all do that, me more often than not lol

by **amugs** Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:45 am

Factors all to consider:

Deep trough in mid section of America

Stout block in SE Canada and Eastern North Atlantic (Low 1030ish HP and a 50/50 low)

WAR back building strong - again - this in my estimation has been under modelled this summer - just look at what it did this summer

HP waters off the charts up the coast and in the Caribbean

Shear is predicted to be light once he turns North

Trough in GOM

Are there biases with each model sure and in each weenie absolutely but one sure as heck interesting set up that can be downright scary if it all comes together - I have to look at planetary alignment on this to see - if we have a bog boy aligned (Saturn, Jupiter)with our perigee astrologically then MOMMA MIA!!

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