Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:20 pm

Hi res on the approach toward cape is 936mb! Insane.

by Angela0621 Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:20 pm

I know it's early but when are you anticipating this coming to nj/ny area?

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Did anyone think this would happen? I for one actually did not think it would ramp up this fast. I also wonder how much it will actually weaken after crossing the ilands at such high intensity. Then I see it regain in bahamas and if it tracks up EC I think it will be slow to weaken hence the risk to our area.

Sandy was never close to this strong and look how she fared crossing those same islands.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:22 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:18z NAVGEM captures Matthew and destroys our area

Wowee, guessing your going to pull the alarm if these trends continue this weekend?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:22 pm

Angela0621 wrote:I know it's early but when are you anticipating this coming to nj/ny area?

If Matthew, big IF, does reach our area it will not be until the October 8th-10th time period.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:23 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:18z NAVGEM captures Matthew and destroys our area

No alarm from me until Tuesday, maybe late Monday depending on my confidence.

Wowee, guessing your going to pull the alarm if these trends continue this weekend?

by Angela0621 Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:24 pm

Any chance it could be later?

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:18z NAVGEM captures Matthew and destroys our area

No alarm from me until Tuesday, maybe late Monday depending on my confidence.

Wowee, guessing your going to pull the alarm if these trends continue this weekend?

Gotcha, where are you at right now? BTW isn't the NAVGEM not a great model?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:27 pm

Angela0621 wrote:Any chance it could be later?

Later than the 10th? Maybe, but seems unlikely.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:33 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Did anyone think this would happen? I for one actually did not think it would ramp up this fast. I also wonder how much it will actually weaken after crossing the ilands at such high intensity. Then I see it regain in bahamas and if it tracks up EC I think it will be slow to weaken hence the risk to our area.

Sandy was never close to this strong and look how she fared crossing those same islands.

I actually forget how she did over the islands. Doesnt seem to matter cuz any weakening it will regain, and 18z gfs actually intensifies as it gets brought up the MA.

by **Sanchize06** Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:43 pm

8 PM Update: Winds up to 150 mph, pressure down to 945mb

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:46 pm

This go b cat 5 for jamaica. Catestrophic. I've been there seen how the poor areas live. Just wow they need prepare asap.

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:07 pm

Frank if this storm continues to intensify (currently 150mph), we will need to pull out the archives and see where it ranks for strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record. Wilma in 2005 holds the record at an astonishing 185mph! At this point it would not shock me anymore if Matthew makes a run at it.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:28 pm

Unbelievable. Category 5 at 11pm? Maybe.

HURRICANE MATTHEW - Page 24 Ft-animated

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:34 pm

Latest recon pass has recorded 143kts winds at the surface!!! Matthew will be a Cat5 at 11pm update.
Edit: 143kts = 165mph!!!

by **billg315** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:36 pm

Really exploding in strength today. And not going to move over these islands very fast.

by **billg315** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:39 pm

Long 4 days ahead for Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas.

by **amugs** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:41 pm

My boy is gonna bring the goods and the better it is delayed/slower - will miss teh 1st kickers and then the 2nd trough comes in and captures it - still 240 hours away. If this track verifies or he is tad more west then he MAY go down in the anas of meterological history imho. BUT the GFS will do the windshield wipers on us and send him OTS then back and forth etc.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:41 pm

Unbelievable thats 165mph, this may break records.

by **amugs** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:42 pm

GEFS are back - da crushers jesus - this would be a devastating scenario if it comes to fruition.

by **billg315** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:44 pm

I'm not gonna hit the panic button on this yet. Seen too many of these go OTS and it's still several days off. But . . . This is getting a bit disconcerting.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:45 pm

amugs wrote:GEFS are back - da crushers jesus - this would be a devastating scenario if it comes to fruition.

Wow they all look almost in agreement! This far out thats amazing, GFS has been killing it on track so far, not really with intensity.

by **amugs** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:48 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:GEFS are back - da crushers jesus - this would be a devastating scenario if it comes to fruition.

Wow they all look almost in agreement! This far out thats amazing, GFS has been killing it on track so far, not really with intensity.

Jman I said this to you yesterday that imagine if we blended the euro intensity with the GFS 6Z and 12 Z track from yesterday or teh 18Z from Wed?? Holy snikeysss.

by **amugs** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:49 pm

billg315 wrote:I'm not gonna hit the panic button on this yet. Seen too many of these go OTS and it's still several days off. But . . . This is getting a bit disconcerting.

Billing we have a week out so if by tues/wed we are seeing this then we start to up the ante but there is still lots of time. Panic for Jamaica. Cuba and the bahamas yes and then S Pla.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:49 pm

Looking aweful lot like something from 4 years ago...but possibly worse with winds? Not pushing panic either but this is def starting to look more serious than it did 5 days ago. Yikes

HURRICANE MATTHEW - Page 24 Gefs_e10

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:52 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:GEFS are back - da crushers jesus - this would be a devastating scenario if it comes to fruition.

Wow they all look almost in agreement! This far out thats amazing, GFS has been killing it on track so far, not really with intensity.

Jman I said this to you yesterday that imagine if we blended the euro intensity with the GFS 6Z and 12 Z track from yesterday or teh 18Z from Wed?? Holy snikeysss.

Ya I know, thats what I am thinking might happen. Going to be a long week, gonna try stay busy over the weekend make time go by faster, but its nasty out and I have been sick (viral) so thats why I have been online so much, plus I do a online business and my job involves a lot of computer so I am rarely away from a computer or phone..

by track17 Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:54 pm

But Jersey shore should be ok right? Just Long Island that has to worry right

by Sponsored content