HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Those winds are nothing we have not seen in ocean county many times

Oy, stationary!


8:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 1
Location: 13.5°N 73.4°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 940 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

track17 wrote:Those winds are nothing we have not seen in ocean county many times

This far out does not mean they are right, this could be much stronger, Euro shows it stronger.

Imani. Are we going to struggle to get to that 75w. Maybe it will start moving due n. Not good

Juan. I know who you are. Great job you do

Levi Cowan: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2016/10/01/saturday-evening-matthew-a-very-dangerous-hurricane-will-impact-jamaica-haiti-and-cuba-monday-and-tuesday/

...he doesn't really even mention the possibility of a Northeast impact. Seems to believe if Matthew affects the US, it'll scrape the Southeast before receiving out. He was up front about not really knowing after 4 days where Matthew is headed.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

thanks for posting Jman....what time are the next big runs..11:30?

Yup! Can't wait until DST so models can run 1 hour sooner.

18z GEFS seem well east of OP

Levi always errs on the cautious side and does not usually talk about LR.

Things are looking good thank god

Frank_Wx wrote:18z GEFS seem well east of OP

Aligning with Euro finally?

This will changes 10 different ways till Sunday, still a lot on the table

Thank god all of the trends seems like we will have nothing to worry with everything moving east now

Joe Snow wrote:This will changes 10 different ways till Sunday, still a lot on the table

couldn't agree more.

No way every model has trended east we are out of the woods

track17 wrote:No way every model has trended east we are out of the woods

Trends are way too conflicting to draw any conclusions, especially when we still have a full week of model runs to go. No definitive statements should be made. If you want to make them, you can do so in the banter thread.

jmanley32 wrote:Levi always errs on the cautious side and does not usually talk about LR.

He does, but I really enjoy his videos. Very educational. It's hard to disagree with anything he says. Statistically, it's pretty rare the U.S. sees a landfalling major hurricane. The upper air pattern steering Matthew is very complex, and Matthew is very strong so sometimes he goes against the physics of where they want to steer him.

I love it someone says something you dont like you want it to go in the banter yet you post this afternoon ahould be there too when you bitched about the model and said you were going to the gym

track17 wrote: I love it someone says something you dont like you want it to go in the banter yet you post this afternoon ahould be there too when you bitched about the model and said you were going to the gym

Me disliking a specific model run is far different than endorsing any one solution. I've repeated multiple times I do not have confidence in any track right now and urged we should wait until Monday, which actually may have to be Tuesday depending on trends these next two days.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Levi always errs on the cautious side and does not usually talk about LR.

He does, but I really enjoy his videos. Very educational. It's hard to disagree with anything he says. Statistically, it's pretty rare the U.S. sees a landfalling major hurricane. The upper air pattern steering Matthew is very complex, and Matthew is very strong so sometimes he goes against the physics of where they want to steer him.

Oh yes so do I he brings me back to ground level. Once things get closer he will start to discuss if the models continue to show a threat. Also not all models have trended east. I personally do not consider something a trend that keeps changing run to run. That last part wasn't directed at u frank. Let's all play nice.

Wow, interesting.

Look you got your way i wont post anymore because it is obvious people are not allowed to disagree with you what you said was just as much banter as mine but it is fine you win

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow, interesting.

hmmm history does repeat itself. That's amazing those are the only two others to make this upcoming pass so regardless of where matthew goes add that to the history books.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Levi always errs on the cautious side and does not usually talk about LR.

He does, but I really enjoy his videos. Very educational. It's hard to disagree with anything he says. Statistically, it's pretty rare the U.S. sees a landfalling major hurricane. The upper air pattern steering Matthew is very complex, and Matthew is very strong so sometimes he goes against the physics of where they want to steer him.

Oh yes so do I he brings me back to ground level. Once things get closer he will start to discuss if the models continue to show a threat. Also not all models have trended east. I personally do not consider something a trend that keeps changing run to run.

Agree with the trends piece, but if you loop the last 4 GFS runs you can tell they've progressively gotten east. The EURO has maintained its position for awhile now despite making a move in the upper levels toward the GFS. Nowcasting is the best we can do at this point.