NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

+36
frank 638
Dis2cruise
aiannone
sabamfa
Math23x7
pdubz
mwilli5783
Grselig
WeatherBob
njwx7
kaos00723
Quietace
bobjohnsonforthehall
snowlover 12345
obsessedwithweather
Sanchize06
Radz
Dunnzoo
jake732
Joe Snow
oldtimer
billg315
rb924119
nutleyblizzard
track17
SoulSingMG
RJB8525
amugs
hyde345
Snow88
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
weatherwatchermom
skinsfan1177
NjWeatherGuy
sroc4
40 posters

Page 21 of 40 Previous  1 ... 12 ... 20, 21, 22 ... 30 ... 40  Next

Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by SoulSingMG Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:41 pm

Most METS I follow are now saying model consensus is offshore with only one bringing the storm into US and Matthew will likely stay OTS.

Is this a responsible thing to say ATT? Genuinely asking for opinions...
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2739
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:45 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Most METS I follow are now saying model consensus is offshore with only one bringing the storm into US and Matthew will likely stay OTS.

Is this a responsible thing to say ATT? Genuinely asking for opinions...

Reasonable yes, do I agree, yes... set in stone. No.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:49 pm

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-60.00,0.00,1351/loc=-74.579,14.223



current location according to this web site..does passing 75 still mean anything?
14.22° N, 74.58° W✕
260° @ 41 km/h
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2950
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by rb924119 Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:51 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Most METS I follow are now saying model consensus is offshore with only one bringing the storm into US and Matthew will likely stay OTS.

Is this a responsible thing to say ATT? Genuinely asking for opinions...

Reasonable yes, do I agree, yes... set in stone. No.

Great answer! I have felt this from the beginning, but it won't take much to change things again. Have to just wait and see how things shake out.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5355
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by hyde345 Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:02 pm

I don't buy any solution right now. Matthew continues to crawl NW and is now at 75W. It's going to take 4-5 days to be north of Bahamas so still a long way to go and things can certainly change.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 895
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:12 pm

18z GFS showing the ULL hanging back again, bet Matthew chases it OTS somewhere after the Carolinas.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:29 pm

Does that ull actually hang around thpugh for that long is the question too. Matthew on 18z recurves just way to late.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:31 pm

@hyde345 wrote:I don't buy any solution right now. Matthew continues to crawl NW and is now at 75W. It's going to take 4-5 days to be north of Bahamas so still a long way to go and things can certainly change.
I agree so much can change if we are talking into middle of the following week from this one.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:51 pm

12z EPS - all over the place.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Cty7swkUAAAOGxy

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z EPS - all over the place.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Cty7swkUAAAOGxy

What a HOT MESS upset ..so now we wait till the 11:30 gfs to see what that will bring....
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2950
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:16 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:12z EPS - all over the place.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Cty7swkUAAAOGxy

What a HOT MESS upset ..so now we wait till the 11:30 gfs to see what that will bring....

That is rediculous, the GFS has a closer spread than that, there is no point in putting any confidence in any track at this point it seems. Oh and good god a few are back in the gulf lol, im losing my mind! JK well kinda
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:32 pm

Since I have a 5:30a alarm each morning for work I may not be here for tonight's model runs. Luckily, we're still a long way to go until Matthew reaches the Bahamas which is when I think we need to watch him more carefully. Over the next 2-3 days he'll be working his way to Haiti/Jamaica - Cuba - and by the end of this week the Bahamas. A very slow moving system. If we were to watch every model run we may lose our minds!

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:36 pm

Maybe it will just be nice to watch Matthew unfold and talk about current obs. we are passing 75W, one piece to the puzzle possible and new eye has opened up, maybe strengthened a bit.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:38 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Since I have a 5:30a alarm each morning for work I may not be here for tonight's model runs. Luckily, we're still a long way to go until Matthew reaches the Bahamas which is when I think we need to watch him more carefully. Over the next 2-3 days he'll be working his way to Haiti/Jamaica - Cuba - and by the end of this week the Bahamas. A very slow moving system. If we were to watch every model run we may lose our minds!
Take a break my friend, your in school and working I finished doing that in 2015 and fwef its tough, do your paper and just advice do not put it off to the last minute because you never know what could get in the way emergencies (big storms you want to track lol) then ur screwed. Good luck, smart man I am sure you will do well.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:43 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Since I have a 5:30a alarm each morning for work I may not be here for tonight's model runs. Luckily, we're still a long way to go until Matthew reaches the Bahamas which is when I think we need to watch him more carefully. Over the next 2-3 days he'll be working his way to Haiti/Jamaica - Cuba - and by the end of this week the Bahamas. A very slow moving system. If we were to watch every model run we may lose our minds!
Take a break my friend, your  in school and working I finished doing that in 2015 and fwef its tough, do your paper and just advice do not put it off to the last minute because you never know what could get in the way emergencies (big storms you want to track lol) then ur screwed.  Good luck, smart man I am sure you will do well.

2 more pages to go. I got this.

I was looking at some 24-hour trends, and noticed that models are trending much weaker with the trough working its way into the U.S. in Day 2. It's a split-trough, so one piece escapes into Canada and another undercuts and digs into the central U.S. However, models two days ago were much more impressive with the digging. Now it looks pretty progressive. If we had a +PNA I would say there was a good shot of a capture. Without it, there is no mechanism for Matthew to slingshot back to the coast. So even if the GFS was right with the timing it may not have meant much. Basically what I'm saying is if the GFS timing was correct then I may be ready to write Matthew off as OTS. However, since it looks like the EURO is right I am not confident in what the upper air pattern will be like a week from now. The Day 2 trough will be out of the picture by then. Lots happening!!!

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:43 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Since I have a 5:30a alarm each morning for work I may not be here for tonight's model runs. Luckily, we're still a long way to go until Matthew reaches the Bahamas which is when I think we need to watch him more carefully. Over the next 2-3 days he'll be working his way to Haiti/Jamaica - Cuba - and by the end of this week the Bahamas. A very slow moving system. If we were to watch every model run we may lose our minds!

get a good night sleep Frank...this was such a dreary weekend...model hugging was not a bad thing...but back to reality for most tom(we have off of school...if I could read models...I would help out...)have a good one!!
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2950
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:46 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Maybe it will just be nice to watch Matthew unfold and talk about current obs. we are passing 75W, one piece to the puzzle possible and new eye has opened up, maybe strengthened a bit.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html


Wow, right on 75W. If he gets further west then that it means he'll be west of where the NHC predicted him to be. I find it VERY hard to believe he will move north along 75W between 15N and 18N (latitudes).

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:48 pm

Frank is 98L (possible Nicole) have a possible impact on Matthew or is he moving too slow to have these ever get close enough to interact? Yes we have a new invest LOL (head spinning)

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 98l10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:50 pm

8:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 2
Location: 14.5°N 75.0°W
Moving: NW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

Still NW
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:57 pm

X marks the spot. Matthew has reached 75W. The NHC has him taking a track due north of here then sometime around tomorrow night northeast toward Haiti. Idk about you, but I find it hard to believe he goes due north for that long. Quite possible there is some more NW movement to come so by the time he does begin turning NE, he avoids Haiti and may hit Cuba a little more. We'll find out soon enough.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Capture.thumb.PNG.f6bcd9bd83204ec71e0490ffc3acf9ae

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:58 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank is 98L (possible Nicole) have a possible impact on Matthew or is he moving too slow to have these ever get close enough to interact? Yes we have a new invest LOL (head spinning)

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 98l10

Ugh, someone asked me about Nicole and I did not think much about her. I'll look into her more later. I don't think she'll mean much because of the WAR, but we'll see.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:02 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Image.gif.f9463322f887f91cfa71231cc7db28b7

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:05 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Frank is 98L (possible Nicole) have a possible impact on Matthew or is he moving too slow to have these ever get close enough to interact? Yes we have a new invest LOL (head spinning)

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 98l10

Ugh, someone asked me about Nicole and I did not think much about her. I'll look into her more later. I don't think she'll mean much because of the WAR, but we'll see.

Sorry Frank, no rush, was just wondering if that system could impact Matthews track, could give a crap less about 98L itself. So things could still change right, back to a hit up here? We have so much time and I think you said the upper levels could easily change now being what it seems to be 10 days out.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:07 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Image.gif.f9463322f887f91cfa71231cc7db28b7
Awesome!! How did you get such a closeup image? I agree, moving so slow and continued NW I find it hard to believe he back tracks NNE, I think track changes in coming NHC updates, at least a shift.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17978
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by hyde345 Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:18 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Image.gif.f9463322f887f91cfa71231cc7db28b7

It looks like its stationary again. Maybe by the time it comes north it will be cold enough for snow.


Last edited by hyde345 on Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 895
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 21 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 21 of 40 Previous  1 ... 12 ... 20, 21, 22 ... 30 ... 40  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum