Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:23 pm

It's a cat 4 now was briefly a 5 last night.

by **Snow88** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:26 pm

Euro caving

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:27 pm

It is it looks east?

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:28 pm

If the euro does cave b a huge coup for gfs.

by **Snow88** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:29 pm

Further west than 0z. Lets see what it does up here.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:29 pm

EURO is west of 00z and the upper air features look much better. Oh boy.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 4 Ecmwf_mslpa_atl_7

by **amugs** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:30 pm

HUGE WAR flexing muscules here - I think he is coming west here

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 4 Cts8Z85XgAAPCVE

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:30 pm

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:30 pm

Wow big change in the ridge very strong. This may well b a hit.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:34 pm

Night and day difference comparing yesterday's 12z run with this one.

YESTERDAY: Ridge over the northeast moving out, ridge developing over central US, trough nowhere to be found. ULL is NE of Matthew.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 4 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_8

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 4 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_8

TODAY: Ridge amplifying over northeast and trough entering central US. ULL not as influential. Matthew further north and west too.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 4 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_7

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 4 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_7

by **amugs** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:34 pm

I would say the AMericans win again with this latest run - trajectory is more west and the rex block over the North Atlantic is there = still slower on euro by a good day but we'll see.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:35 pm

Twitter storm right now about "Euro caving to the GFS" this run...

by **amugs** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:36 pm

FROM a MET

The ULL moving away and shifting further SE is HUGE. Its counterclockwise flow actually helps to enhance easterly flow with the big ridge on top, and allows the storm to meader further west.

I actually think some sort of ULL moving into the WAR is a GOOD thing for a hit.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:37 pm

Trough is going to try to grab it, but it's a progressive / weak trough.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 4 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_8

by **amugs** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:37 pm

HUGE NOD to GFS here

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 4 Ecmwf_mslpa_atl_8

by **amugs** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:39 pm

Trough depicted may not be enough but teh fact that it has comes west is a big win for GFS - also the block is stronger on teh euro with a weaker trough and it is about 30 hours behind teh gfs on terms of position.

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:40 pm

And certain people doubted me and my confidence in the gfs!

by **amugs** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:42 pm

Lets see what the ensembles have to say if this shift is a legit OP run here

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:44 pm

Doesn't matter if it's a hit this run or not if 00z shifts west then I think we have a much clearer idea of ot coming this way.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:46 pm

Wow big cave to other guidance. The trough escaped north instead of digging into the eastern CONUS, so Matthew remains offshore on the EURO but noticeably closer to the coast.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:46 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Doesn't matter if it's a hit this run or not if 00z shifts west then I think we have a much clearer idea of ot coming this way.

You've been rooting for the GFS all along and it's paying off ;-) As I said early this am, the EURO is wayyy to 'all over the map" run to run to be trusted at all.

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:47 pm

Toot toot lol jk

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:48 pm

by **amugs** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:49 pm

WOW - it is right there - my god at 940 just spinning up 25' monsters

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 4 Ecmwf_mslpa_atl_9

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:49 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:

as me and mugs were discussing gfs track euro intensity good god....if of course tgat were to hsppen.

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