Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[algae888]

still no nina yet.



sub sea surface temps warming. wonder if we ever get to nina?

[docstox12]

love to see the blues on the map as we head towards fall. football kids back in school shorter days pennant race baseball. best time of year!

Yes, Al,I'm glad you brought that wonderful harbinger of Winter up....the first blues on the weather maps!!!! Fall is a wonderful season!!!Look forward to that first night in the 30's. Sometimes that happens in September.We will see.

[algae888]

big warm up for all nino regions and pdo areas.

[track17]

Can you explain what that means please is it good or bad

[algae888]

Can you explain what that means please is it good or bad

Earlier this year most models were showing a mod to strong nina which if this occured would pump the s/e ridge and probably mean warmer than normal winter for our area with below normal snow. That is typical for a strong or moderate nina. Well that outcome is very unlikely atm, even a weak nina is only a 50/50 bet right now (look at sub sst i posted above). From what I've read we want a neutral enso which seem to produce well for us in winter. It allows other factors to drive the weather rather than the  Pacific sst. A neutral enso along with a positive PDO ( the waters off the Northwest Pacific coast and south of Alaska)should allow for Arctic air to invade the eastern half of the US. And you know as well as I that cold air is the main ingredient for winter storms

[track17]

Awesome thank you so much lets pray for tons of blizzards

[algae888]

Also with a neutral enso we could have a nina hangover which would allow for an active subtropical jet. Combined with an active Artic and polar jet could end up being a fun winter. Mugs has a post about this on previous page

[amugs]

Nina is weak by cfs 2 lining up so far



Look at this chart - give us 13-14 or 14-15 please HAHAHAHA!!


THE BLOB! COME ON BABY HOLD ONE FOR A FEW MORE MONTHS!!

[amugs]

This is looking good!!!

[amugs]

From JB - his forecast warm Nov and Dec - UGGHHHH!!
BUT we make a big comeback - from Jan through March ala 2013-14??? 83-84 - if we can get some blocking and the Hotlantic cools - maybe a strong storm can do soem upwelling to help it cool off.

Anyway here it is:


Says we hit rock bottom with a raging Neg EPO due to the blob and the Modoki nino strong positive PDO. Saying PAc really isnt in a Nina state but more like a weak nino state if yuo look at the overall Pac


Nov to Jan - Saying Nov will skew the mean overall and into early Dec.

[amugs]

Rocky will start growing at the end of this month - who is Rocky you might ask ??? My chia pet that signifies the ice/snow growth in Siberia.

[Frank_Wx]

Rocky will start growing at the end of this month - who is Rocky you might ask ??? My chia pet that signifies the ice/snow growth in Siberia.

Rocky...hahahaha

[amugs]

JB more thoughts on winter
SST Weak La Nna, ring of warmth off the west coast and western atlantic Warm. Good support for our idea, though again tricky start with warm western atlantic. Keep in mind we think again JFM is the part of winter most severe plains and east relative to normals 500 mb Plenty of blocking Big Winter for Europe Temps Hinting at the cold alley Alaska into US, but not there all the way yet. Keep in mind that we acknowledge a slower start Precip. Would likely support snowy east idea Verdict Plenty of blocking, no el nino ,...warm Pacific ring, much weaker N Atlantic cool pool. Looks like a lot of potential for eastern US

[amugs]

Cold Alley from Alaska through the plains and look at the possible blockiness in SE CAN and Greenland

[amugs]

JB on winter
Warm PDO ring should re-establish major cold over East and into Plains late
Warm West
Higher than normal uncertainty about when winter will start in earnest
We are now quicker than the last forecast from July
Still think January-March will be colder than November-January
Analogs are colder than our forecast (for now)

[amugs]

Ring of fire PDO above - me likey - only if it was November 30!!!

Not bad - a blue dot special over the region

[amugs]

-ENSO -PDO  vs. -ENSO +PDO

Alex I'll take -ENSO +PDO for 1 million please!!

[amugs]

If we can get a Nina East Based I am reading that it develops a Negative winter NAO - who knows though cause it seems the NAO is confused - being N all summer giving us heat and going POS winter time and bringing us ugatz!!
This is not at all incorporating a +PDO here peeps - strictly nina state


Here is central nino no PDO incorporated



From a met
all of the CP Nina winters in the composite occurred either during -QBO winters or when just entering the -QBO. We should be in +QBO this winter. Per HM's analysis, -QBO/Nina favors Alaska low pressure (+EPO) / suppressed Aleutian High, while +QBO/Nina favors poleward Aleutian High. So, the logical pattern to mabye look for would be the Pac pattern from the East Pac composite (poleward Aleutian High), and Atlantic pattern from the Central Pac composite (less of a -NAO).



This is it with a -EPO above.

Food for thought peeps and comments are welcome

[sroc4]

Mention the EPO PDO and Nina status but isn't mentioned is the Indian Ocean. The IO played a huge role regarding the MJO getting stuck in and around phase 4 last winter. There has been a huge cool down in the IO region thus far relative to where the SST anomalies were. It had a big influence on the polar westerlies.
It's yet to be determined what sort of influence, or lack thereof, the change in the IO temp anomalies will cause with the changing tropical pacific. So many variables but I'm getting stoked talking about them. Bring on the winter.

[NjWeatherGuy]

I really hope we have an active winter, pattern looks good with neutral ENSO or weak Nina to set up. But of course, nobody really knows, despite the better tropical pattern, the Atlantic is busting so far and looks quiet in the long term maybe another Gaston-like storm in the next week or so.

[amugs]

Mention the EPO PDO and Nina status but isn't mentioned is the Indian Ocean. The IO played a huge role regarding the MJO getting stuck in and around phase 4 last winter. There has been a huge cool down in the IO region thus far relative to where the SST anomalies were. It had a big influence on the polar westerlies.
It's yet to be determined what sort of influence, or lack thereof, the change in the IO temp anomalies will cause with the changing tropical pacific. So many variables but I'm getting stoked talking about them. Bring on the winter.

Great point to the IO Dipole. I have myself to learn more on this and how he walker cell is affected by such. The IO was a hot tub and like you said Sroc it has cooled considerably. Analog SST for the IO for a weak nina neutral state would be interesting to see.

[Frank_Wx]

Mention the EPO PDO and Nina status but isn't mentioned is the Indian Ocean. The IO played a huge role regarding the MJO getting stuck in and around phase 4 last winter. There has been a huge cool down in the IO region thus far relative to where the SST anomalies were. It had a big influence on the polar westerlies.
It's yet to be determined what sort of influence, or lack thereof, the change in the IO temp anomalies will cause with the changing tropical pacific. So many variables but I'm getting stoked talking about them. Bring on the winter.

Important.

[sroc4]

Just to see the visualization of the Indian Ocean changes....Sept 2014; 2015; then 2016

[amugs]

Thanks Scott ^^^^^ so it looks to be as cool if not cooler than 2014 overall - good sign.

[amugs]

Swiped off twitter



And from the great meterological historian

UNC W


the neutral and weak la nina winters after an el nino are listed below...1978-79 was the only true neutral winter with an oni of 0.0 for DJF...1992-93 and 2003-04 never hit negative numbers...I'm leaning towards an oni of -0.9 or higher at its lowest point and maybe an official weak la nina...the three weak la nina's listed below the neutrals came after weak el nino's...1966 and 1983 and 1995 are the lead analogs as of now...

season...DJF ONI...

1959-60....-0.1

1966-67....-0.4

1978-79.....0.0

1980-81....-0.2

1983-84....-0.5

1992-93.....0.2

2003-04.....0.3

2005-06....-0.7

...............................................................................................

1954-55....-0.6

1964-65....-0.5

1995-96.[[/b]...-0.9

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