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Long Range Thread 12.0

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Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by algae888 Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:13 am

still no nina yet.
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Nino34
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Nino4
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Wkxzteq_anm
sub sea surface temps warming. wonder if we ever get to nina?
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Post by docstox12 Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:30 am

@algae888 wrote:love to see the blues on the map as we head towards fall. football kids back in school shorter days pennant race baseball. best time of year!
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47

Yes, Al,I'm glad you brought that wonderful harbinger of Winter up....the first blues on the weather maps!!!! Fall is a wonderful season!!!Look forward to that first night in the 30's. Sometimes that happens in September.We will see.
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Post by algae888 Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:46 pm

big warm up for all nino regions and pdo areas.
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1
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Post by track17 Tue Aug 30, 2016 8:53 pm

Can you explain what that means please is it good or bad

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Post by algae888 Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:11 pm

@track17 wrote:Can you explain what that means please is it good or bad
Earlier this year most models were showing a mod to strong nina which if this occured would pump the s/e ridge and probably mean warmer than normal winter for our area with below normal snow. That is typical for a strong or moderate nina. Well that outcome is very unlikely atm, even a weak nina is only a 50/50 bet right now (look at sub sst i posted above). From what I've read we want a neutral enso which seem to produce well for us in winter. It allows other factors to drive the weather rather than the  Pacific sst. A neutral enso along with a positive PDO ( the waters off the Northwest Pacific coast and south of Alaska)should allow for Arctic air to invade the eastern half of the US. And you know as well as I that cold air is the main ingredient for winter storms
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Post by track17 Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:15 pm

Awesome thank you so much lets pray for tons of blizzards

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Post by algae888 Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:20 pm

Also with a neutral enso we could have a nina hangover which would allow for an active subtropical jet. Combined with an active Artic and polar jet could end up being a fun winter. Mugs has a post about this on previous page
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Post by amugs Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:49 pm

Nina is weak by cfs 2 lining up so far

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 CFS

Look at this chart - give us 13-14 or 14-15 please HAHAHAHA!!
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Northeast_february_Temps

THE BLOB! COME ON BABY HOLD ONE FOR A FEW MORE MONTHS!!
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

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Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by amugs Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:37 pm

This is looking good!!!
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Image.thumb.gif.1ba86ece44c885a74b5dc14ed910445e

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Post by amugs Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:34 pm

From JB - his forecast warm Nov and Dec - UGGHHHH!!
BUT we make a big comeback - from Jan through March ala 2013-14??? 83-84 - if we can get some blocking and the Hotlantic cools - maybe a strong storm can do soem upwelling to help it cool off.

Anyway here it is:
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Winter_2016_2017_Snowfall_1_

Says we hit rock bottom with a raging Neg EPO due to the blob and the Modoki nino strong positive PDO. Saying PAc really isnt in a Nina state but more like a weak nino state if yuo look at the overall Pac
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Screen_Shot_2016_08_24_at_6_51_42_PM

Nov to Jan - Saying Nov will skew the mean overall and into early Dec.



Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 November_January_2016_17_Update

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Post by amugs Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:35 pm

Rocky will start growing at the end of this month - who is Rocky you might ask ??? My chia pet that signifies the ice/snow growth in Siberia.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:51 pm

@amugs wrote:Rocky will start growing at the end of this month - who is Rocky you might ask ??? My chia pet that signifies the ice/snow growth in Siberia.

Rocky...hahahaha

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 06, 2016 2:51 pm

JB more thoughts on winter
SST Weak La Nna, ring of warmth off the west coast and western atlantic Warm. Good support for our idea, though again tricky start with warm western atlantic. Keep in mind we think again JFM is the part of winter most severe plains and east relative to normals 500 mb Plenty of blocking Big Winter for Europe Temps Hinting at the cold alley Alaska into US, but not there all the way yet. Keep in mind that we acknowledge a slower start Precip. Would likely support snowy east idea Verdict Plenty of blocking, no el nino ,...warm Pacific ring, much weaker N Atlantic cool pool. Looks like a lot of potential for eastern US

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Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by amugs Tue Sep 06, 2016 2:53 pm

Cold Alley from Alaska through the plains and look at the possible blockiness in SE CAN and Greenland

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Screen_Shot_2016_09_06_at_12_22_24_PM

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 06, 2016 4:36 pm

JB on winter
Warm PDO ring should re-establish major cold over East and into Plains late
Warm West
Higher than normal uncertainty about when winter will start in earnest
We are now quicker than the last forecast from July
Still think January-March will be colder than November-January
Analogs are colder than our forecast (for now)

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Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by amugs Tue Sep 06, 2016 4:39 pm

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Casst_anom_3(16)

Ring of fire PDO above - me likey - only if it was November 30!!!

Not bad - a blue dot special over the region
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Cat2m_anom_3(12)

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Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by amugs Tue Sep 06, 2016 5:05 pm

-ENSO -PDO  vs. -ENSO +PDO

Alex I'll take -ENSO +PDO for 1 million please!! Twisted Evil Very Happy Very Happy cheers

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 57cd6780b33ed_ScreenShot2016-09-05at8.33.15AM.thumb.png.a5952bcd36f40bd1f4692bf76b201a41

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 06, 2016 5:13 pm

If we can get a Nina East Based I am reading that it develops a Negative winter NAO - who knows though cause it seems the NAO is confused - being N all summer giving us heat and going POS winter time and bringing us ugatz!!
This is not at all incorporating a +PDO here peeps - strictly nina state
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 1_EP_Nina

Here is central nino no PDO incorporated

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 1_CP_Nina

From a met
all of the CP Nina winters in the composite occurred either during -QBO winters or when just entering the -QBO. We should be in +QBO this winter. Per HM's analysis, -QBO/Nina favors Alaska low pressure (+EPO) / suppressed Aleutian High, while +QBO/Nina favors poleward Aleutian High. So, the logical pattern to mabye look for would be the Pac pattern from the East Pac composite (poleward Aleutian High), and Atlantic pattern from the Central Pac composite (less of a -NAO).

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 CP_NAO

This is it with a -EPO above.

Food for thought peeps and comments are welcome


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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 06, 2016 5:36 pm

Mention the EPO PDO and Nina status but isn't mentioned is the Indian Ocean. The IO played a huge role regarding the MJO getting stuck in and around phase 4 last winter. There has been a huge cool down in the IO region thus far relative to where the SST anomalies were. It had a big influence on the polar westerlies.
It's yet to be determined what sort of influence, or lack thereof, the change in the IO temp anomalies will cause with the changing tropical pacific. So many variables but I'm getting stoked talking about them. Bring on the winter.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 06, 2016 5:50 pm

I really hope we have an active winter, pattern looks good with neutral ENSO or weak Nina to set up. But of course, nobody really knows, despite the better tropical pattern, the Atlantic is busting so far and looks quiet in the long term maybe another Gaston-like storm in the next week or so.
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:26 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Mention the EPO PDO and Nina status but isn't mentioned is the Indian Ocean. The IO played a huge role regarding the MJO getting stuck in and around phase 4 last winter. There has been a huge cool down in the IO region thus far relative to where the SST anomalies were. It had a big influence on the polar westerlies.
It's yet to be determined what sort of influence, or lack thereof, the change in the IO temp anomalies will cause with the changing tropical pacific. So many variables but I'm getting stoked talking about them. Bring on the winter.

Great point to the IO Dipole. I have myself to learn more on this and how he walker cell is affected by such. The IO was a hot tub and like you said Sroc it has cooled considerably. Analog SST for the IO for a weak nina neutral state would be interesting to see.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 06, 2016 9:29 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Mention the EPO PDO and Nina status but isn't mentioned is the Indian Ocean. The IO played a huge role regarding the MJO getting stuck in and around phase 4 last winter. There has been a huge cool down in the IO region thus far relative to where the SST anomalies were. It had a big influence on the polar westerlies.
It's yet to be determined what sort of influence, or lack thereof, the change in the IO temp anomalies will cause with the changing tropical pacific. So many variables but I'm getting stoked talking about them. Bring on the winter.

Important.

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Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 07, 2016 7:33 am

Just to see the visualization of the Indian Ocean changes....Sept 2014; 2015; then 2016

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Io_sst10
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Io_sep10
Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 Io_sst11


Last edited by sroc4 on Tue Sep 20, 2016 12:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Wed Sep 07, 2016 8:34 am

Thanks Scott ^^^^^ so it looks to be as cool if not cooler than 2014 overall - good sign.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:06 pm

Swiped off twitter

Long Range Thread 12.0 - Page 3 1

And from the great meterological historian

UNC W


the neutral and weak la nina winters after an el nino are listed below...1978-79 was the only true neutral winter with an oni of 0.0 for DJF...1992-93 and 2003-04 never hit negative numbers...I'm leaning towards an oni of -0.9 or higher at its lowest point and maybe an official weak la nina...the three weak la nina's listed below the neutrals came after weak el nino's...1966 and 1983 and 1995 are the lead analogs as of now...

season...DJF ONI...

1959-60....-0.1

1966-67....-0.4

1978-79.....0.0

1980-81....-0.2

1983-84....-0.5

1992-93.....0.2

2003-04.....0.3

2005-06....-0.7

...............................................................................................

1954-55....-0.6

1964-65....-0.5

1995-96.[[/b]...-0.9

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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