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Long Range Thread 13.0

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 24, 2016 10:09 am

That Baja upper low is going to kill our storm threat on the 29th, isn't it?

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 24, 2016 10:12 am

So, do you see the dotted lines that intersect to form perfect 90-degree angles in the maps you posted? I'm sure you know those are lat/lon gridlines. When you look at these maps you have to remember that the projections are adjusted so that we can view the Earth's round surface on a flat plane. So, in order to see the true orientation of the pattern, you have to use the lat/lon grid to orient your own view; that will give you the true north/south and above/below orientation of the pattern relative to Earth's surface. That's why they're there. When you look at your images this way, you see that the ridge and trough are actually still in the same plane. But you are correct in your understanding of a Rex block.

To an unrelated point, Bobby had asked yesterday if there was some invisible hurricane that passed through Tahiti. Well, he was right; it's actually an Invest lmao the SOI, while still somewhat negative, has calmed significantly as that system is progressing westward. Also, the Rossby wave that I spoke about in my video is the same energy that has since spawned that typhoon in the western Pacific. Amazing to see just how fluid and dynamic this atmosphere really is.

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Post by Armando Salvadore Sat Dec 24, 2016 10:15 am


That was some fantastic analysis! Interesting trends on both OP and even the ensembles for that time period. Also aligns nicely that this time period is just coming off the jet extension across the pacific. Looking at the 250mb 06z GFS, an apparent split flow and jet streak intersect the ridge at H5.



It's the timeframe afterwards around the 1st-3rd that is intriguing. We see an anomalous poleward ridge extend into Alaska in conjunction with a split flow. Taken from the 0z EURO, that ULL energy kicks east ( ULL in SW CONUS), with a digging vorticity on a backside of the trough over the Great Lakes. That same energy for the 30th window, now kicks east and into the western atlantic, allowing for a ridge to extend poleward into Greenland and quite the impressive look verbatim the 0z EURO. Also, the western ridge now basically extends into NW Canada with a trough hanging off the West Coast. So, two intriguing time periods noted here, but is it possible one sets up the next?


Also, a +PNA is supported by induced poleward momentum and easterlies near ~ 30N from a +MT event off East Asia, which is supported by guidance showing a jet retraction. Guidance is beginning to figure it out, but definitely be cautious with guidance in the medium range as everyone knows the drill by now!

Apologize for not being able to show visuals because of my new membership, sorry folks! Have to wait it out. Hopefully the explanation is sufficient!


By the way, Merry Christmas to everyone!!!!
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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 24, 2016 10:17 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:That Baja upper low is going to kill our storm threat on the 29th, isn't it?

That's what I was and am afraid of. While it will get cold into the East, it will keep the ridge too broad which increases the confluence across the Southeast. This keeps the flow flat and the trough too broad to allow anything to dive and then "turn the corner" until it's too late. We need that energy to either not be there at all and just have a true PNA, OR move the Rex further west. The second option, while not helping the issue of broadness and confluence, will shift all of the axes further west with it, which would bring the meridional part of the trough closer to our area.

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 24, 2016 11:08 am

Agree Ray.

@Scott - here's a tweet I just made to highlight the differences you brought to light

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/812690732695900161

Moral of the story, the 29th-30th time frame is at risk of being an all rain event because the trough does not deepen enough over the east coast for the reasons Scott and Ray talked about. That cut-off low near California disconfigures the upper pattern, essentially.




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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 24, 2016 11:11 am

@Armando Salvadore wrote:
That was some fantastic analysis! Interesting trends on both OP and even the ensembles for that time period. Also aligns nicely that this time period is just coming off the jet extension across the pacific. Looking at the 250mb 06z GFS, an apparent split flow and jet streak intersect the ridge at H5.



It's the timeframe afterwards around the 1st-3rd that is intriguing. We see an anomalous poleward ridge extend into Alaska in conjunction with a split flow. Taken from the 0z EURO, that ULL energy kicks east ( ULL in SW CONUS), with a digging vorticity on a backside of the trough over the Great Lakes. That same energy for the 30th window, now kicks east and into the western atlantic, allowing for a ridge to extend poleward into Greenland and quite the impressive look verbatim the 0z EURO. Also, the western ridge now basically extends into NW Canada with a trough hanging off the West Coast. So, two intriguing time periods noted here, but is it possible one sets up the next?


Also, a +PNA is supported by induced poleward momentum and easterlies near ~ 30N from a +MT event off East Asia, which is supported by guidance showing a jet retraction. Guidance is beginning to figure it out, but definitely be cautious with guidance in the medium range as everyone knows the drill by now!

Apologize for not being able to show visuals because of my new membership, sorry folks! Have to wait it out. Hopefully the explanation is sufficient!


By the way, Merry Christmas to everyone!!!!

Thanks Armando.

The EPS do not seem too enthused with the 1st-3rd time frame just yet. The -EPO is real but downstream, we're seeing too much of a -PNA as energy rotating around the PV digs southward. This is where the maintenance of a +PNA would have been nice.

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Guest Sat Dec 24, 2016 11:26 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Agree Ray.

@Scott - here's a tweet I just made to highlight the differences you brought to light

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/812690732695900161

Moral of the story, the 29th-30th time frame is at risk of being an all rain event because the trough does not deepen enough over the east coast for the reasons Scott and Ray talked about. That cut-off low near California disconfigures the upper pattern, essentially.




YESS!!! and the EPS is not excited about the 2nd thru 5th time frame either....DOUBLE YES!!! plus a soaking rain and upper 30's on Christmas Eve!!! Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad

Merry Christmas all!!

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 24, 2016 11:29 am

The hemispheric pattern no longer supports a wave 2 warming event. We'll see decent wave 1 though, and that will displace the PV into Siberia for a period of time. We'll have to see if this displacement event is enough to weaken the Strat winds and lead to possible wave 2. I say that's unlikely at this time given the mean zonal wind forecasts. Overall, lots of work still to be made in the Strat. Not really enthused with anything. I was hoping the New Years Eve Tropospheric pattern would have a greater impact on the Strat, but models are either de-amplifying the upper level ridges or not positioning them poleward enough.

EURO D10 10hPa heights

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Strat

GEFS D10 10hPa heights

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Strat_1

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 24, 2016 11:40 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Agree Ray.

@Scott - here's a tweet I just made to highlight the differences you brought to light

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/812690732695900161

Moral of the story, the 29th-30th time frame is at risk of being an all rain event because the trough does not deepen enough over the east coast for the reasons Scott and Ray talked about. That cut-off low near California disconfigures the upper pattern, essentially.




YESS!!!  and the EPS is not excited about the 2nd thru 5th time frame either....DOUBLE YES!!!  plus a soaking rain and upper 30's on Christmas Eve!!! Evil or Very Mad  Evil or Very Mad

Merry Christmas all!!

lol!

On a serious note, it's very frustrating seeing these models trend unfavorably in the longer range. While the resurgence of the -EPO is real, it does not look like the Atlantic or PV will be cooperative. Check out this GIF I made. Keep an eye on the NW Pacific. Watch as the orange, or potential vorticity, tracks into the west coast. The PV location and the cut-off ridge over Alaska forces all the PVA south.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 8e9d69e3-8996-4471-86d2-1f391b794d05

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 24, 2016 11:49 am

RIP MJO? Looks like VP anomalies trend unfavorably.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Twc_globe_mjo_vp200

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:00 pm

@Armando Salvadore wrote:
That was some fantastic analysis! Interesting trends on both OP and even the ensembles for that time period. Also aligns nicely that this time period is just coming off the jet extension across the pacific. Looking at the 250mb 06z GFS, an apparent split flow and jet streak intersect the ridge at H5.



It's the timeframe afterwards around the 1st-3rd that is intriguing. We see an anomalous poleward ridge extend into Alaska in conjunction with a split flow. Taken from the 0z EURO, that ULL energy kicks east ( ULL in SW CONUS), with a digging vorticity on a backside of the trough over the Great Lakes. That same energy for the 30th window, now kicks east and into the western atlantic, allowing for a ridge to extend poleward into Greenland and quite the impressive look verbatim the 0z EURO. Also, the western ridge now basically extends into NW Canada with a trough hanging off the West Coast. So, two intriguing time periods noted here, but is it possible one sets up the next?


Also, a +PNA is supported by induced poleward momentum and easterlies near ~ 30N from a +MT event off East Asia, which is supported by guidance showing a jet retraction. Guidance is beginning to figure it out, but definitely be cautious with guidance in the medium range as everyone knows the drill by now!

Apologize for not being able to show visuals because of my new membership, sorry folks! Have to wait it out. Hopefully the explanation is sufficient!


By the way, Merry Christmas to everyone!!!!

When or if you figure out how to post graphics Id love an illustration of the area in your discussion I bolded above.  Mountain Torque, I'm assuming this is what your referring to as a +MT event off east Asia, is something I am just starting to educate myself on.  I have some very basic ideas of this concept but have a ways to go with it.  At what level do I need to be looking at in the atmosphere to see this event your referring?  And what time frame am I looking at?  My assumption is between 300-150mb to see the western Pac jet extension and wave break as it traverses the Pac? And timing I am looking at it from about hr 72 on, and watching the Pac jet and northern latitude ridging amplify, and ultimately the entire down stream pattern amplify as a result.   Also do you or anyone else have any sites with graphics showing the positive and negative AAM anomalies along a time line?  

As far as what you are referring to in the 1st-3rd time frame, if only our SW CONUS energy, AKA potential PNA ridge killer in the 29th-30th time frame, would come out 18 or so hrs earlier we would be in business on last nights Euro op verbatim.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Euro_h10


Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:05 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Agree Ray.

@Scott - here's a tweet I just made to highlight the differences you brought to light

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/812690732695900161

Moral of the story, the 29th-30th time frame is at risk of being an all rain event because the trough does not deepen enough over the east coast for the reasons Scott and Ray talked about. That cut-off low near California disconfigures the upper pattern, essentially.




Nice!

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:06 pm

PS the illustrations I drew on this map were not intentionally done to look dirty..lol

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Euro_h10


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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:15 pm

Sure, I'm telling Mrs. Scott on you. KIDS READ THIS BOARD. Quietace, close your eyes.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:33 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:RIP MJO? Looks like VP anomalies trend unfavorably.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Twc_globe_mjo_vp200

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small

The MJO does typically fade into phases 7/8

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Post by Armando Salvadore Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:56 pm

Yes, the trends have been taking the turn for the "worse", however, at least there is a sustained -EPO signal amongst the guidance including the 12z GFS and GEFS. GEFS does appear to sustain more ridging south of Greenland longer than the GFS, but i always remain skeptic of NAO depictions from models. What happens with tropical forcing will dictate polar blocking. 12Z GFS essentially shows a similar pattern leading up to the snow event that happened last weekend, with such a broad trough. Not the best pattern whatsoever, but it can offer some overrunning chances. Seasonal jet as we head deeper into Climo. winter supports more of a push of the baroclinic zone deeper than what z500mb depicts, but that SE ridge won't be going anywhere.  Until we can get more polar blocking and amplification out west, would expect transit shots and "thread the needle". Its encouraging to see a -AAM in sight and support for at least some sort of amplification on the horizon. Perhaps we wait until hemispheric changes align itself, thus giving better chances towards early mid Jan. Tough winter this year!

P.S. (@sroc4, sent you a DM to answer your questions!)
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Post by jrollins628 Sat Dec 24, 2016 1:20 pm

I think it's safe to say that we need to take a break from the models and enjoy these next few days and allow models to adjust themselves accordingly. I have a feeling that we may see things change and stay that way around the 10th or so. But the moral of the story is I don't believe that things will change for NYE as some believed before they will. I'm no meteorologist so I cant say with certainty that will be the case. If your looking for good snow, it may not happen this year. One can hope but it does not look good. I suggest taking a step back from the models and enjoying the holiday with family and friends Merry Christmas and the models will be there on Monday lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 24, 2016 1:48 pm

@jrollins628 wrote:I think it's safe to say that we need to take a break from the models and enjoy these next few days and allow models to adjust themselves accordingly. I have a feeling that we may see things change and stay that way around the 10th or so. But the moral of the story is I don't believe that things will change for NYE as some believed before they will. I'm no meteorologist so I cant say with certainty that will be the case. If your looking for good snow, it may not happen this year. One can hope but it does not look good.  I suggest taking a step back from the models and enjoying the holiday with family and friends Merry Christmas and the models will be there on Monday lol

Good post, and to you too!


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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 24, 2016 1:50 pm

EURO not far off from giving our area meaningful snow on the 29th.


Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 585ec2d820552

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Post by algae888 Sat Dec 24, 2016 2:37 pm

That is one massive block on the operational Euro today at hour 240. Straight from Alaska right across through Greenland. WOW if it only can come to fruition
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Post by algae888 Sat Dec 24, 2016 2:39 pm

I'm on my phone so if someone can post the map. Also compare the 850 temperatures on the GFS and Euro at the same time frame laughable
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 24, 2016 8:33 pm

@sroc4 wrote:PS the illustrations I drew on this map were not intentionally done to look dirty..lol

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 2 Euro_h10

sroc I'm ashamed of u and I got knocked last yr for post st. I think u should b sent to timeout in oti lol. Merry xmas and don't for get happy haunnukah some here may b jewish ie. Half my family.
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Post by jake732 Sat Dec 24, 2016 11:20 pm

yes happy hannukah
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 25, 2016 3:37 pm

Some hope to cling onto on this wonderful day. The GEFS show a -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern setting up after January 7th. This would lead to substantial cold and frequent winter storm events. We shall see.

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Post by Guest Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:08 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Some hope to cling onto on this wonderful day. The GEFS show a -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern setting up after January 7th. This would lead to substantial cold and frequent winter storm events. We shall see.

in 2 days we went from possibly a storm on the 30th or so to January 7th. Very Happy Very Happy

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