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Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Dec 19, 2016 4:11 pm

Looks like shorts and tee shirts end of the month
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Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA Mon Dec 19, 2016 4:51 pm

We are beginning to see some models increase shift in the tropical forcing, but it is not being reflected well on the models after day 10. Question is do we see the strong PV as you guys noted suppress any blocking attempts or is some guidance like GEFS correct on the tropical forcing shift? EPS shifts in that general direction too, but with larger ensemble spread.

The shift through 7-8-1 would change the WPO/EPO which has been driving the pattern, but I am skeptical of the GEFS look today. But would certainly have implications on the first week of January look if realized. Might be more grasping at straws here though.

Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread) NCPE_phase_21m_small

Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread) ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full
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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 19, 2016 4:57 pm

Welcome to the site Bobby.  Your insights will be much appreciated.


Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA Mon Dec 19, 2016 4:58 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Welcome to the site Bobby.  Your insights will be much appreciated.  

Thanks!  I probably should have introduced myself before jumping in like that. ha
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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:02 pm

@Bobby Martrich EPAWA wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Welcome to the site Bobby.  Your insights will be much appreciated.  

Thanks!  I probably should have introduced myself before jumping in like that. ha

We have talked about you, your site, as well as Defino's outlooks in years past so most know at least of you.  Fire away!


Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:51 pm; edited 1 time in total

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:10 pm

@Bobby Martrich EPAWA wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Welcome to the site Bobby.  Your in sites will be much appreciated.  

Thanks!  I probably should have introduced myself before jumping in like that. ha

Welcome Bobby I love your videos on the epawa site. Great knowledge
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:17 pm

Nice first post Bobby! Don't worry, most people know you

Smile

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Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:36 pm

Thanks guys... much appreciated. DeFino did the long range up until he left, and then I took over. Admittedly he is better at it, as I usually stick to the operational side of things. But he has taught me a lot, and I look forward to contributing and learning from all of you. No matter who you are or what level of education, we all can learn from each other, and I am no different.

Euro weeklies this evening are ugly weeks 2, 3, and 4 FWIW. Precip is below normal week 1, above week 2, normal weeks 3 and 4.

Week 1 2M temp anomaly:

Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread) Eps10

Week 2 2M temp anomaly:

Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread) Eps210

Week 3 2M temp anomaly:

Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread) Eps310

Week 4 2M temp anomaly:

Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread) Eps410

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Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:46 pm

@Bobby Martrich EPAWA wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Welcome to the site Bobby.  Your insights will be much appreciated.  

Thanks!  I probably should have introduced myself before jumping in like that. ha

Welcome aboard!!! I look forward to your addition of even more knowledge to these discussions!!

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Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:55 pm

Well from the above analysis looks like a mild stretch through mid January is coming up.Hope that all changes by the end of January so Feb and Mar can produce snow.Anyway, it's been great in my neck of the woods late November and up to now, mostly cold and 13 to 14 inches of snow.No complaints here.A mild 3 weeks can suddenly change back to winter.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 19, 2016 8:42 pm

Pattern early next week is an extension of what we'll see late this week. 40's and 50's at times with at least 2 rain events.

Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread) Test8

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:11 pm

You need to update your snow total in your signature Frank. And I hate that look.

_________________
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:18 pm

Updated

afro

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:57 pm

Bobby welcome aboard and vey.much look forward to your posting and learning. Great group here and we are one big happy family, at times of course we have differences but that is to happen.

I have researched and spoke with pro mets who have harped on th eatmsopheric lag to the mjo and it idices. The indicies are the lag more so is what I am referring to so os this something g that is happening say now and we won't see it on the charts for few days? Curious what your pro opin/facts are on this.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:02 am

Any one doing an in depth write up on long range?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:13 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Any one doing an in depth write up on long range?

I will tonight.

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Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:16 am

@amugs wrote:I have researched and spoke with pro mets who have harped on th eatmsopheric lag to the mjo and it idices. The indicies are the lag more so is what I am referring to so os this something g that is happening say now and we won't see it on the charts for few days? Curious what your pro opin/facts are on this.

There is truth to this, and I like to use trends on the ensembles as a better way to forecast MJO eastward propagation. Match them up to current observations against the negating factors to see if it may be too aggressive (like I think the GEFS are currently) or if it makes plausible sense. There is usually a lag when it comes to tropical forcing, and that might be why past D10 on the ensembles currently we are seeing a lot of spread. We saw this a lot in November. Lag time for affects to be felt here isn't nearly as long as an SOI drop (10-14 days) since it is more fluid and eastward propagating/moving.
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Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:23 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Any one doing an in depth write up on long range?

I will tonight.

Love these... looking forward to your thoughts on tropical forcing perhaps throwing a monkey wrench in the ensembles past D10 (?) But this certainly isn't encouraging...

Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread) Aam10
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:33 am

I can understand why the GEFS have a large spread in the long range. The mean propagates the MJO in phases 7 and 8 beginning end of Week 1 January into Week 2.

Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread) NCPE_phase_21m_small

The EURO, which does not go out that far, keeps the MJO in the COD in the medium range.

Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread) ECMF_phase_51m_small

If the GEFS has any clue, this would certainly be welcoming news and could begin the wave 1 or wave 2 warming process we need to disrupt or split the Strat PV. Here is an older graphic from Ventrice but it basically shows Dateline ridging returning to the North Pacific Week 1 of January.

Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread) C0CcVzzXUAA2Pf6

So there are some positive signs in the long range. Let's hope these signals do not disappear this time next week. I'll research a bit more tonight and put together a blog depending what time I get outta work.

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Post by Snow88 Tue Dec 20, 2016 11:48 am

GFS barely has a warmup
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Post by amugs Tue Dec 20, 2016 3:05 pm

IF these MJO GEFS plots come to fruition then we dont have what some were calling for the other way - another pro forecaster board member has been harping on this - guy is frickin good - if it does come out then all hail to this young man - also spoke to my buddy -pro met - said the eastern Siberian LP is if in fact progged to be as deep as being shown will pump the WPO which in turn will pump the EPO heights to both turn them N by the 1st week of Jan. We look to much at just our COMUS and Canada - he said look to the Western Pac this winter for our indicators. Believes once we get that established with the shorter wavelength due to teh season (winter)  he feels cold will be persistent due to the anomalous cold air source in Oh Canada and the poleward extension of this ridge which will form a block over teh top and INDUCE a SW(Stratospheric Warming). To what degree remains to be seen but he feels we can see a split sometime in Mid Jan or an elongation at that time.
Food for thought and time will tell.

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Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA Tue Dec 20, 2016 3:13 pm

You also used the ECMWF operational vs. GEFS in that MJO comparison. EPS looks a little better with more spread.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 20, 2016 3:48 pm

Video upcoming about my thoughts on the long range.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 20, 2016 4:38 pm

@Bobby Martrich EPAWA wrote:You also used the ECMWF operational vs. GEFS in that MJO comparison. EPS looks a little better with more spread.

Do you know where I can find EPS MJO?

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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:22 pm

Here's my video for those interested:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byod2Sk27yNYWkowN1ZnUVJRT0E/view?usp=sharing

Also, the image below is the missing anomaly chart that I referenced. Note how there was a tendency for troughing develop over northwestern North America (evidenced by the blue colors/lower than normal 500 hPa height anomalies) and then sink into the western U.S., with deep troughing centered just offshore of New England. Granted, we had blocking then, so the tendency for the troughs entering the northeastern U.S. to deepen could be attributable to that, since troughs and ridges like to juxtapose each other in the longitudinal sense, but I still think that sort of setup is on the table for the period after Christmas ESPECIALLY if the MJO is substantially active in Phase 5/6 before propagating eastward from there.

Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread) Screen13

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