Re: Weather Statistics Thread

by Guest Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:33 pm

That map is garbage. There is no way, and I mean NO way, that I've seen anywhere close to 26 inches of snow this winter. A 5 inch, a 6 inch and what? 15 dustings that are counted as an inch each?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:53 pm

TheAresian wrote:That map is garbage. There is no way, and I mean NO way, that I've seen anywhere close to 26 inches of snow this winter. A 5 inch, a 6 inch and what? 15 dustings that are counted as an inch each?

Over most of our area I found it to be pretty accurate.

As we all know you are in the snow hole like no other. With 100 inches to the north and west and then the snow lovers hell that is Painted Post.

I imagine there are no official reporting stations near you. I guess the closest one is Elmira and that's probably where the 26 is.

by **Dunnzoo** Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:32 pm

I agree, it is not that accurate for NENJ. We've seen 16" to date, that map has the NENJ area over 20" .....

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:51 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:I agree, it is not that accurate for NENJ. We've seen 16" to date, that map has the NENJ area over 20" .....

Dislike [X]

It shows 15 inches in three places in NENJ.

This is one tough crew.

by **Math23x7** Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:20 pm

Much of last February was a blowtorch, even with the snow we had on the 9th. I just took a look at the average and it came out to 41.6, which broke the record for the warmest February on record, previously set in 2012.

What I just did was take the high/low temps we have had up to this point. For the next 7-days, I used to forecast high/low temps shown on Channel 7 today. For the last few days of February, I used the weather.com high/low temps. When I put them into Excel, the average came out to 41.8. If these temperatures were to verify, this would break the record for the warmest February on record set just last year.

by **Dtone** Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:42 pm

We tend to overachieve on those torch type days in recent years so I think odds of breaking the Feb record set last yr are pretty good. How much breaks of sun we get (or dont get) on those really warm days next week will be key. Its impressive we're squeezing a quick hit of snow in the midst of this warmth.

Sent from Topic'it App

by **Math23x7** Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:46 am

With the 4.4" at CPK, the 2017-18 seasonal snow total is now at 23.8", tied for 90th place and this is the 149th such season.

Also, with the 4.9" of snow at CPK, the month of February has featured 301.6" of snow going back to 1991. This means that when the 1991-2020 30-year averages come out, February will exceed 10" of snow.

Finally, using the 0-9 decadal system, the 2010's is now the 3rd snowiest decade on record behind only the 1870s and 1890s. Here are the rankings:

Decade___Snow
1890s____352.3
1870s____335.1
2010s____328.9
1940s____326.7
1880s____324.8
1960s____310.5
1910s____305.2
1900s____298.1
1920s____292.0
2000s____292.0
1930s____241.3
1990s____238.3
1970s____222.0
1950s____215.3
1980s____199.4

by **docstox12** Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:56 am

GREAT stats Mikey and also , a thank you, for measuring at Central Park and keeping CP out of an extended stay at the OTI Sanitarium.Your above stats recognize the great decade of the 2010"s that are still going and the dismal decades of the 1970's and 1980's which I sadly witnessed first hand.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:55 am

The stats are as per Don Sutherland (maybe the actor) the thoughts are mine.

The warmest February on record is last year at 41.6° it looks like we will beat it or come very close.

2012: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record
2017: 41.6°, warmest on record
2018: 41.0° so far through the 22nd, the current month end projections are around 42 which will be the new warmest on record.

3 of the past seven Februaries will rank 1, 2 & 3 as the warmest ever in 150 years of record keeping. As I've said before where does it end? Not good.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Feb 25, 2018 1:04 am

Delete

by **Math23x7** Sun Feb 25, 2018 1:21 am

Given the temperatures for the first 24 days of February and four days to go.

If the mean temperature between February 25th-28th is between 43.725 and 44.425, The mean temperature for February 2018 will be 41.6 tying the record for warmest February on record set just last year.

If the mean temperature February 25th-28th is at least 44.425, then it will break the record for the warmest February on record set just last year.

Given the Channel 7 forecast highs/lows:

25th: 49 41
26th: 54 44
27th: 54 38
28th: 58 38

If these were to verify, the average these four days would be 47 and the overall February average would be 42.0, smashing the record...

by SnowForest Sun Feb 25, 2018 12:48 pm

Just looking at the numbers, this seems to be a relatively average winter. It didn't feel that way though, since it was about 4 weeks of far below average and 8 weeks of above average. Some stats for South Jersey:

This month is on track to be the wettest February since 1979, which had 6.44 inches. Currently standing at 5.36 inches for Philadelphia airport, not including today's rains. I have measured at least 1.0 inches of rainfall over today, so we're very close to breaking the monthly record for precipitation. Winter in Mt. Holly area will come out as roughly average, with a temperature of 34 degrees. (Dec: 33, Jan: 31, Feb: To be 40). Very warm February, cold December and January. Felt like a warm winter because of the extended warm spell. Hopefully that will change in March.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Feb 26, 2018 10:21 pm

Taking a break from weather I came across this Tom Petty Live Video from 1980 on a TV show called Fridays, singing IMO the best TPATHB song that was never released as a single "Shadow of a doubt". Do yourself a favor and listen to 4 minutes of some kick ass rock and roll and forget about impending storms. If you watch and listen and aren't tapping your foot, check your pulse because you must be dead. Click on the link not the picture to start the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pdscKJp_58

Weather Statistics Thread - Page 6 Petty11

Weather Statistics Thread - Page 6 Petty11

by **docstox12** Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:31 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Taking a break from weather I came across this Tom Petty Live Video from 1980 on a TV show called Fridays, singing IMO the best TPATHB song that was never released as a single "Shadow of a doubt". Do yourself a favor and listen to 4 minutes of some kick ass rock and roll and forget about impending storms. If you watch and listen and aren't tapping your foot, check your pulse because you must be dead. Click on the link not the picture to start the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pdscKJp_58

Excellent CP.Just a simple set up rather than these monstrous equipment rigs you see at concerts nowadays.Has it been 38 years? Just does not seem possible.Hammond B3 organ RULES!!!!!!! All those young ladies in the audience now pushing 60 years old,LOL.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 27, 2018 12:06 pm

The stats below are from Don Sutherland on another forum. I don't need to add anything other than to say it confirms everything that I've thought about our recent temperatures and the 2010's. Despite the record snowfalls we are really paying the price temperature wise. I always wonder when these rising temperatures finally put an end to our increased snowfall. For now they've only enhanced it, but of course the price we pay are periods of prolonged cold and snow cover have diminished despite the increased snow. I always wonder where it ends.

In fact, 2010 or later holds half of the monthly warm temperature records:

February: 41.6°, 2017 (prior to 2010: 40.6°)
April: 57.9°, 2010 (prior to 2010: 56.9°)
September: 74.5°, 2015 (prior to 2010: 73.5°)
October: 64.1°, 2017 (prior to 2010: 63.6°)
November: 52.8°, 2015 (prior to 2010: 52.7°)
December: 50.8°, 2015 (prior to 2010: 44.1°)

The period beginning in 2010 also holds the 2nd or 3rd warmest marks in four months:

March: 2nd warmest: 50.9°, 2012 (record: 51.1°)
May: 2nd warmest: 68.5°, 2015 (record: 68.7°)
July: 2nd warmest: 81.3°, 2010 (record: 81.4°)
August: 3rd warmest: 79.2°, 2016 (record: 80.3°)

All said, the period beginning in 2010 holds the first or second warmest spots in 9 of the 12 months and first, second, or third spots in 10 of the 12 months.

Even as the period starting in 2010 represents about 6% of the New York City climate record, it accounts for 50% of the monthly warm temperature records and holds nearly 16% of the 10 warmest spots in the 12 months.

Finally, 9 of the 13 months that accounted for the 10 warmest February monthly averages on record also went on to register among the 10 warmest monthly averages in at least one subsequent month. 1991 (record warm May) and 1999 (record warm July) achieved that standing twice. Given the overrepresentation of the 2010-present period among the 10 warmest figures for each month and the historic experience following exceptionally warm Februaries, it would not be surprising to see 2018 also achieve top 10 status in terms of monthly warmth in a subsequent month.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:00 am

Would like NYC to go over 30 for the season today and tomorrow, they only need 3 more inches to do it, which would make it 5 straight years over 30 inches for only the second time in history. Considering how mild some of the recent winters have been that would be quite extraordinary.

The last time it happened was the the winters of 1880-1881 through 1884-1885.

by Guest Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:06 pm

With this current 8” that’s 18” in March and 48” for the season. A lot of snow for a crappy winter imho

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:13 pm

What is my normal? I'm at 36. Syo your on Long island isn't 48 high?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:What is my normal? I'm at 36. Syo your on Long island isn't 48 high?

THE NYC average for 1991-2018 is right around 31 inches. From your descriptions I'd say your area averages about 19.

JK probably not much higher though, maybe 35.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:21 am

With 37.0 inches of snow this March and more possibly on the way this breaks the pattern of the last 7 years of March being a boom followed by a bust snow month in the HV.

2017 was 25.7 in March 20.8 of it on March 14th.

2016 was 0.5 (what a nightmare that winter was).

2015 was 14.7 (the winter of the endless days of snow pack)

2014 was 0.0 after 41.7 inches in February

2013 was 23.8

2012 was 0.0 (another nightmare winter, 16 inches in October and 13 the rest of the winter)

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:52 am

adjustments

by **docstox12** Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:56 am

CP, looks better today that Central Park gets that 3 inches.It is extraordinary about all this snow in the warm winters but the global warmists insist that is part of their theory.It's wonderful to get the snow however.Nice job on the above stats.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:23 am

Updated

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:25 am

Had to make a minor adjustment, regarding the March 19-20 1958 storm

There are only 8 or 9 snowfalls of 6 inches or greater after the spring equinox in New York City, depending on how you classify the March 19-20, 1958 storm. Also interesting to note here there have been 30 snowfalls 6 inches or greater in the month of March in New York City but only one between March 21 and March 31 but seven from April 1 through April 13. Just a curious weird anomaly. If it does happen on Wednesday it is more or less a one in twenty-year occurrence to happen in spring in New York City.

The second thing to watch is if New York City, specifically Central Park, can receive three or more inches of snow on Wednesday they will surpass 30 inches on the season which would make it five years in a row of 30 or more inches of snow. This has happened only one other time in history back in the early 1880s. Considering that two of the last five meteorological winters have been among the top six warmest ever recorded that makes the snow streak even more extraordinary.

6 inch Spring Snowfalls in NYC

1.....11.8.....March 19-20, 1958.....Spring began at 10 pm on March 20th that year, debatable if it belongs.
2.....10.2.....April 3-4, 1915
3.....10.0.....April 13, 1875
4.......9.6.....April 6, 1982
5.......9.0.....March 22, 1967
6.......8.5.....April 1, 1924
7.......6.5.....April 5, 1944
8.......6.5.....April 8-9, 1917
9.......6.4.....April 6-7, 1938

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:20 am

Hopefully the storm tomorrow produces and can climb this list of the 15 largest from March 1. They need 9.0 inches to get into the top 5 list of spring snow storms. That list on the page above.

Top 15 Snow Storms in NYC
From March 1 forward

1......21.0..March 12-14, 1888
2......18.1..March 7-8, 1941
3......14.5..March 3-4, 1960
4......14.5..March 1-2, 1914
5......12.0..March 15-16, 1896
6......11.8..March 19-20, 1958
7......11.6..March 18-19, 1956
8......10.6..March 13-14, 1993
9......10.2..April 3-4, 1915
10.....10.0..April 13, 1875
11.....10.0..March 2, 1896
12.......9.6..April 6, 1982
13.......9.4..February 28-March 1, 1949
14.......9.0..March 22, 1967
15.......9.0..March 4, 1893

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Mar 21, 2018 4:47 pm

New York City at 5 inches now for this storm as of the 4 PM update.

This now puts them at 32 inches for the season which makes the fifth year in a row they've gone over 30 inches. That's the first time they've had five years in succession over 30 inches since the 1880s.

That was done with two of those five meteorological winters being among the six warmest in history. That's what makes this more impressive to me than anything.

by **Dtone** Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:00 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:New York City at 5 inches now for this storm as of the 4 PM update.

This now puts them at 32 inches for the season which makes the fifth year in a row they've gone over 30 inches. That's the first time they've had five years in succession over 30 inches since the 1880s.

That was done with two of those five meteorological winters being among the six warmest in history. That's what makes it impressive to me more than anything.

Here's an article about the idea that Arctic warming can lead to increase storminess/snow on on the east coast, especially later season snows. Perhaps that is why despite milder winter temps overall we still have snowy winters. Also why snow has favored the coast more than inland areas (relative to normal for each region)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/03/14/rapid-arctic-warming-and-melting-ice-are-increasing-the-frequency-of-blizzards-in-the-northeast-study-finds/?utm_term=.965020d26a92

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