Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

by **sroc4** Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:56 am

Where is the 850 closed low?

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:00 am

RGEM WINDS ARE UGLY

Just as a snapshot:

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions - Page 12 Screen78

by Guest Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:05 am

Aresian. Remember what you promised me!!!!

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:07 am

sroc4 wrote:Where is the 850 closed low?

Tracks just off the NJ coast. Again, this is east of last night, which had it over NJ. Huge changes. I knew modeling didn't look right trying to ram this thing head on into that block aha

by **sroc4** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:09 am

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Where is the 850 closed low?

Tracks just off the NJ coast. Again, this is east of last night, which had it over NJ. Huge changes. I knew modeling didn't look right trying to ram this thing head on into that block aha

I am so behind on this system. I haven't looked at any details on actual models at all. Ive only been following the forum. Ive been so under the weather, no pun intended, since Thursday. Keep up the good job all.

by **docstox12** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:10 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Holy crap

Frank that model has consistently shown a small 15-20 inch area directly over where Doc and I live since yesterday and is getting some support form the NAM so I'm wondering how serious to take it now.

I realize it's almost all sleet but if it verifies 4-5 inches of sleet would be a huge problem. I'm more concerned about that right now than the winds here.

CP, the last time I saw sleet of that magnitude was the March 1993 storm where in Mahwah the snow changed to heavy sleet and 3 inches of that fell.There was about 17 inches of snow/sleet on the ground, a real joy to shovel.

Thinking this is a clown map, gonna be nowcast for us when this goes down.rjb just reported an east shift.Let's hope that trend continues to get us into more snow.

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:10 am

Based on the p-type maps of the 12z CMC.........INTERIOR SNOWS. Awaiting the rest of the maps.

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:14 am

H5 IDENTICAL TO RGEM!! EXITS OFF THE NC/VA BORDER

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:20 am

It isn't as wet, with 1-2.5" liquid equivalent region-wide, but the winds are still rough for the coast, although not as nasty as the RGEM. Interior doesn't look as bad, but more substantially so based on a quick look. Kinda busy so I can't look at soundings, but I will later.

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:23 am

Snow map is a bit disappointing, so there must be a warm nose somewhere in this run still. Just northwest of everybody, except Aresian lol he likes it, although the double-digit snows are through northeastern NY and east.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:24 am

rb924119 wrote:Based on the p-type maps of the 12z CMC.........INTERIOR SNOWS. Awaiting the rest of the maps.

RB for this to trend colder, we need of course the H5 to shift east in upcoming runs, but also the storm itself to continue to move at a slower pace overall. That will allow our high to the north to bleed in colder air and eradicate the stubborn warm wedge. The way this storm is starting to shape up, I can most certainly see this being a redux of VD 2007. For those who don't remember that storm, the city and nearby suburbs had a massive sleet storm, while the interior had heavy snows. After giving up on this storm as far as frozen precipitation is concerned, its now really peaking my interest once again.

by **hyde345** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:29 am

Central NYS and North of I90 are the most likely spots for any real accumlations of snow and/or sleet. I expect a rain/sleet mixture with little accums and I'm in the HV about 25 miles north of I84.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:30 am

rb924119 wrote:Snow map is a bit disappointing, so there must be a warm nose somewhere in this run still. Just northwest of everybody, except Aresian lol he likes it, although the double-digit snows are through northeastern NY and east.

GFS is a low resolution model. I wouldn't worry much at this point what it shows verbatim at the surface.

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:31 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Based on the p-type maps of the 12z CMC.........INTERIOR SNOWS. Awaiting the rest of the maps.
RB for this to trend colder, we need of course the H5 to shift east in upcoming runs, but also the storm itself to continue to move at a slower pace overall. That will allow our high to the north to bleed in colder air and eradicate the stubborn warm wedge. The way this storm is starting to shape up, I can most certainly see this being a redux of VD 2007. For those who don't remember that storm, the city and nearby suburbs had a massive sleet storm, while the interior had heavy snows. After giving up on this storm as far as frozen precipitation is concerned, its now really peaking my interest once again.

Agreed. But here's another thought; what if the models are kicking H5 east because they're finally sensing the true strength of the block, and therefore, are still lagging with how quickly that cold air filters down? If that's the case, the speed of our system won't matter, per se', because the speed with which the cold air arrives will speed up in the modeling. Do you kind of see what I'm getting at? I agree 100% with you that we'd be in business if it slowed down, but there could also be another way to look at it, that's all.

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:32 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Snow map is a bit disappointing, so there must be a warm nose somewhere in this run still. Just northwest of everybody, except Aresian lol he likes it, although the double-digit snows are through northeastern NY and east.
GFS is a low resolution model. I wouldn't worry much at this point what it shows verbatim at the surface.

If you mean the CMC, I again agree 100% haha

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:34 am

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Holy crap

Frank that model has consistently shown a small 15-20 inch area directly over where Doc and I live since yesterday and is getting some support form the NAM so I'm wondering how serious to take it now.

I realize it's almost all sleet but if it verifies 4-5 inches of sleet would be a huge problem. I'm more concerned about that right now than the winds here.

CP, the last time I saw sleet of that magnitude was the March 1993 storm where in Mahwah the snow changed to heavy sleet and 3 inches of that fell.There was about 17 inches of snow/sleet on the ground, a real joy to shovel.

Thinking this is a clown map, gonna be nowcast for us when this goes down.rjb just reported an east shift.Let's hope that trend continues to get us into more snow.

A nowcast for sure Doc.

The way the trends are right now I see us with a minimum of several hours of frozen precip (most likely sleet) at some point during this event. The trend does seem to be colder since yesterday and continues to be so on subsequent runs. The dynamics with storms of this intensity do some really weird things at the last minute, sometimes positive sometimes negative thus the nowcast beginning tomorrow.

by Guest Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:35 am

syosnow94 wrote:Aresian. Remember what you promised me!!!!

I remember. A picture of one SnowKing Syo will be posted if this is all snow.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:39 am

rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Based on the p-type maps of the 12z CMC.........INTERIOR SNOWS. Awaiting the rest of the maps.
RB for this to trend colder, we need of course the H5 to shift east in upcoming runs, but also the storm itself to continue to move at a slower pace overall. That will allow our high to the north to bleed in colder air and eradicate the stubborn warm wedge. The way this storm is starting to shape up, I can most certainly see this being a redux of VD 2007. For those who don't remember that storm, the city and nearby suburbs had a massive sleet storm, while the interior had heavy snows. After giving up on this storm as far as frozen precipitation is concerned, its now really peaking my interest once again.

Agreed. But here's another thought; what if the models are kicking H5 east because they're finally sensing the true strength of the block, and therefore, are still lagging with how quickly that cold air filters down? If that's the case, the speed of our system won't matter, per se', because the speed with which the cold air arrives will speed up in the modeling. Do you kind of see what I'm getting at? I agree 100% with you that we'd be in business if it slowed down, but there could also be another way to look at it, that's all.

We want the H5 to trend east, but if it goes too far east we could very well lose the dynamics of the storm. With limited cold air, its the old thread the needle!

by **docstox12** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:42 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Holy crap

Frank that model has consistently shown a small 15-20 inch area directly over where Doc and I live since yesterday and is getting some support form the NAM so I'm wondering how serious to take it now.

I realize it's almost all sleet but if it verifies 4-5 inches of sleet would be a huge problem. I'm more concerned about that right now than the winds here.

CP, the last time I saw sleet of that magnitude was the March 1993 storm where in Mahwah the snow changed to heavy sleet and 3 inches of that fell.There was about 17 inches of snow/sleet on the ground, a real joy to shovel.

Thinking this is a clown map, gonna be nowcast for us when this goes down.rjb just reported an east shift.Let's hope that trend continues to get us into more snow.

A nowcast for sure Doc.

The way the trends are right now I see us with a minimum of several hours of frozen precip (most likely sleet) at some point during this event. The trend does seem to be colder since yesterday and continues to be so on subsequent runs. The dynamics with storms of this intensity do some really weird things at the last minute, sometimes positive sometimes negative thus the nowcast beginning tomorrow.

Thinking this is a great way to approach this CP.Expect maybe 1/2 to an inch of sleet during the heaviest dynamic of precip.NWS on board with that ATM.East trend encouraging, it's made a boring heavy rainstorm into something more interesting to observe tomorrow.Let's hope the east trend continues and finally HELPS us up here by taking us into more snow!!!

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:42 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Based on the p-type maps of the 12z CMC.........INTERIOR SNOWS. Awaiting the rest of the maps.
RB for this to trend colder, we need of course the H5 to shift east in upcoming runs, but also the storm itself to continue to move at a slower pace overall. That will allow our high to the north to bleed in colder air and eradicate the stubborn warm wedge. The way this storm is starting to shape up, I can most certainly see this being a redux of VD 2007. For those who don't remember that storm, the city and nearby suburbs had a massive sleet storm, while the interior had heavy snows. After giving up on this storm as far as frozen precipitation is concerned, its now really peaking my interest once again.

Agreed. But here's another thought; what if the models are kicking H5 east because they're finally sensing the true strength of the block, and therefore, are still lagging with how quickly that cold air filters down? If that's the case, the speed of our system won't matter, per se', because the speed with which the cold air arrives will speed up in the modeling. Do you kind of see what I'm getting at? I agree 100% with you that we'd be in business if it slowed down, but there could also be another way to look at it, that's all.
We want the H5 to trend east, but if it goes too far east we could very well lose the dynamics of the storm. With limited cold air, its the old thread the needle!

Haha well that's true, but it would have to swing another 100-200 miles, which is possible, but I think unlikely. Never know though lol

by Guest Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:44 am

If it swings much farther east, it's going to pull the snow band away from my area. Or at least snow of any significance.

by **rb924119** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:44 am

UKMET looking sexy on the classic map. Looks like the GFS. Waiting for more maps.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:49 am

rb924119 wrote:UKMET looking sexy on the classic map. Looks like the GFS. Waiting for more maps.

Big changes aloft with the 12z runs! Can't wait for the EURO and more importantly tonights 00z runs!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:51 am

I hope this storm goes to hell

by Guest Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:54 am

Will it be considered bad manners to celebrate if I get a bunch of snow? Or is it okay just so long as I keep it off the board?

by **Grselig** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:56 am

Finally got my wind advisory. Gotta love the last second drama. Can't forget that this storm has caused at least 11 fatalities.

by **docstox12** Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:58 am

TheAresian wrote:Will it be considered bad manners to celebrate if I get a bunch of snow? Or is it okay just so long as I keep it off the board?

Absolutely, Aresian, celebrate Man, your area has been in a snow hole for years.Can't remember the last time a major snowstorm hit your area.But be wary of the S and E trend!!! Time after time it carries the heaviest snow away.At least where I am in the HV.Good Luck!!!

If the heavy stuff hits you, please post if you can reports during the day.

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