Long Range Thread 13.0
+42
Dtone
jimv45
2004blackwrx
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46 posters
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Does anyone want to take a crack at what ice if any we will have for tomorrow (I am just above I-84)?
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
WOW!!! at the 18z -nao block. storms just sit and rotate in circles for days...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
eps...
I think models starting to catch on to mjo phase 8/1 and strat split. fun times ahead..
I think models starting to catch on to mjo phase 8/1 and strat split. fun times ahead..
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
surprised now one talking about the lr. we have a legit -nao pattern unfoldind in the next 7+ days. I know models showed this a few times this winter but not with the amped phase8/1 mjo and strat weakening/split that is forecast in the next week ..
gefs..
gefs..
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Al - the effects of the MJO phase 8 I would love to see the EPO heights rise so we can get a N EPO - JB says that Al LP looks to retrograde further W
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
yes mugs and you can add the euro weeklies that just came out. best pattern in more than five years. big block and active stj. winter ends with a bang. watch the 16-19 period with that cutoff over the s/w. even though weeklies have been bad this year I think this run will be correct as to many factors are lining up just right. isotherm has been spot on this winter I am really impressed.amugs wrote:Al - the effects of the MJO phase 8 I would love to see the EPO heights rise so we can get a N EPO - JB says that Al LP looks to retrograde further W
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Al and we have 3 vorts to watch out for in the LR - This weekend, Next Tuesday and again Thursday time frames. Tom has been caling the mid month storm since mid Feb!!!! ISOTHERM BRING IT HOME ME PAISAN!!
SO much for the Cliff jumping we all were doing the last 4 out of 5 days !!
OH AND JIM WITT FOR THE WINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!
CALENDAR 3 YEARS OUT CALLING FOR the 8-9th and 22-24th time frame!!
HE IS GENIUS WITH BIG STORMS!!!!
SO much for the Cliff jumping we all were doing the last 4 out of 5 days !!
OH AND JIM WITT FOR THE WINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!
CALENDAR 3 YEARS OUT CALLING FOR the 8-9th and 22-24th time frame!!
HE IS GENIUS WITH BIG STORMS!!!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
I hate those fn weeklies - they sucked this winter - if they EVER verified I'd have a N NAO/EPO and AO?NAO in the means for DEC and JAN - nothing at you AL but you know what I mean here.algae888 wrote:yes mugs and you can add the euro weeklies that just came out. best pattern in more than five years. big block and active stj. winter ends with a bang. watch the 16-19 period with that cutoff over the s/w. even though weeklies have been bad this year I think this run will be correct as to many factors are lining up just right. isotherm has been spot on this winter I am really impressed.amugs wrote:Al - the effects of the MJO phase 8 I would love to see the EPO heights rise so we can get a N EPO - JB says that Al LP looks to retrograde further W
This is all due to the very strong phase 8 of the MJO and PV action !!
Can we go 1 through 2 - NOW that woudl be save this whole winter IF it can
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Tom is amazing - been following for three years and asked him to join here and thank god he did. When he speaks we listen and get out the dictionary to figure out what the hell he is saying - speaks at a doctorate level sometimes - jeez!!
The heights are responding tremendously in the High Latitude domain here in teh LR - hope this keeps improving:
BTW JIM WITT saying his late Feb time frame could rival the first PD storm at this point and has been saying this for some time COULD is teh key word but loves this time frame!
The heights are responding tremendously in the High Latitude domain here in teh LR - hope this keeps improving:
BTW JIM WITT saying his late Feb time frame could rival the first PD storm at this point and has been saying this for some time COULD is teh key word but loves this time frame!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Who said winter was over? Fun times ahead with the MJO going into 8 and 1 and the AO and PNA favorable.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Snow88 wrote:Who said winter was over? Fun times ahead with the MJO going into 8 and 1 and the AO and PNA favorable.
Tony u joking right? Maybe not u but 2/3 of the boards were ready to jump!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
amugs wrote:Snow88 wrote:Who said winter was over? Fun times ahead with the MJO going into 8 and 1 and the AO and PNA favorable.
Tony u joking right? Maybe not u but 2/3 of the boards were ready to jump!
I know
Everyone on the internet was jumping
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
we have to watch the time period I mentioned yesterday for a possible big coastal.....
cut-off low over the s/w picked up and phased with trough (n/s energy). fun times ahead...
cut-off low over the s/w picked up and phased with trough (n/s energy). fun times ahead...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
mt hooly agrees with previous posts...
500 MB: A strengthening short wave will cross the mid Atlantic
states Thursday, then strong height rises follow over the
weekend (strong westerly flow), then northern stream short waves
from Canada begin carving out a cold trough in eastern Canada
early next week. A fly in the ointment early next week will be a
leftover low over the desert southwest that may yet interact
play a role in our weather early next week.
500 MB: A strengthening short wave will cross the mid Atlantic
states Thursday, then strong height rises follow over the
weekend (strong westerly flow), then northern stream short waves
from Canada begin carving out a cold trough in eastern Canada
early next week. A fly in the ointment early next week will be a
leftover low over the desert southwest that may yet interact
play a role in our weather early next week.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Long range is beginning to show the affects of the MJO and Stratosphere. Very cold and stormy post the 15th.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
YSCI jumps 75% in one day-- a new record!
(Edit: Dammit! I meant to post this in Banter!
Small phone screen + Old eyes = Fail!)
(Edit: Dammit! I meant to post this in Banter!
Small phone screen + Old eyes = Fail!)
Last edited by SENJsnowman on Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:22 am; edited 1 time in total
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Ensembles are definitely catching onto the SSW progression and the MJO propagation, so this coherent wave structure appears it may do more than just change the pattern and overwhelm those thoughts of zonal flow. It appears the 200 CHI of the west pacific will alter and there is your weakening walker cell as we approach mid Feb into March. Interestingly enough, it appears we see a jet extension mid month, however, does this extension lead to a split flow with an active STJ and a progression of an anticyclone into the PNA/EPO regions? Sure bet it looks like it. Very interesting period showing up for mid month!
Armando Salvadore- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
SENJsnowman wrote:YSCI jumps 75% in one day-- a new record!
(Edit: Dammit! I meant to post this in Banter!
Small phone screen + Old eyes = Fail!)
No worries
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
I added an event to the SCI. February 11th. Could be some WAA snow that drops an inch or 2 on Saturday.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
The LR GFS shows 4 additional storm events. Big February possible
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Don't tease me like this Frank! Haha. Imagine if with all the griping about this winter if February was a record snowfall month.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
billg315 wrote:Don't tease me like this Frank! Haha. Imagine if with all the griping about this winter if February was a record snowfall month.
Not all of us were griping
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
sroc4 wrote:billg315 wrote:Don't tease me like this Frank! Haha. Imagine if with all the griping about this winter if February was a record snowfall month.
Not all of us were griping
Haha. Very true. A few people on here, who I won't name but two of whom have screen names start with "sro . . ." and "Frank_W . . " respectively were very persistent in saying that February might hold some promise.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
billg315 wrote:sroc4 wrote:billg315 wrote:Don't tease me like this Frank! Haha. Imagine if with all the griping about this winter if February was a record snowfall month.
Not all of us were griping
Haha. Very true. A few people on here, who I won't name but two of whom have screen names start with "sro . . ." and "Frank_W . . " respectively were very persistent in saying that February might hold some promise.
Dont forget Iso...
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
sroc4 wrote:billg315 wrote:sroc4 wrote:billg315 wrote:Don't tease me like this Frank! Haha. Imagine if with all the griping about this winter if February was a record snowfall month.
Not all of us were griping
Haha. Very true. A few people on here, who I won't name but two of whom have screen names start with "sro . . ." and "Frank_W . . " respectively were very persistent in saying that February might hold some promise.
Dont forget Iso...
Absolutely, Iso as well. There were a few stalwarts on that front. Sometimes I laugh when I hear some of the pessimism and "winter is over" comments because they do amuse me mostly because you can see them coming and history tends to repeat itself. But, I have the luxury of just hanging back. I feel the pain of those who as administrators and forecasters on this site have an obligation to offer an alternative view or counterpoint to those thoughts with data and analysis. Perhaps I should have your back more often than I do in those discussions. But trust me, you are not alone when fighting the good fight.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Scott me too. Never gave up esp with iso strat and mjo pulse to 8. Was a bit frustrating late last week but hung in there. Bill you can add mugs to that list too! Just kidding mugs. Anyway Bill and Scott, maybe our new leader should be Punxsutawney Phil.lolsroc4 wrote:billg315 wrote:sroc4 wrote:billg315 wrote:Don't tease me like this Frank! Haha. Imagine if with all the griping about this winter if February was a record snowfall month.
Not all of us were griping
Haha. Very true. A few people on here, who I won't name but two of whom have screen names start with "sro . . ." and "Frank_W . . " respectively were very persistent in saying that February might hold some promise.
Dont forget Iso...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Hahaha. Yes, I could add a few people to the list. And yes, the groundhog issued his decree on Thursday and the Weather Gods are about to deliver.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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