Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[Isotherm]

Pattern recognition has superseded modelology throughout this winter, and there is no difference here. I would still be surprised if we evade a snow event with this pattern. The ECMWF has steadily improved with the NAO and concomitant 50/50, as well as more height rises out west. You don't need a meridional ridge spike to pole; a neutralizing PNA would be sufficient with this Atlantic set up. And yes, heights will rise in the SE US ahead of the propagating short wave, but as long as the confluent flow / attendent TPV lobe remains near Nove Scotia, that northern stream wave will be forced to transfer its energy southeastward. That's meteorology. We shall see how it plays out.

[algae888]

With the block over Greenland and a very cold Canada I would be surprised if we don't see at least one more significant snow starting around March 8th Thru the 15th or so. Last week I thought we'd be tracking something by this time. While none of the models show any system in the next 7 days I do believe they will start popping up before the weekend is over.

[track17]

Has anyone looked at the temps the next two weeks. If you did you will see snow won't happen. All winter everyone said don't worry about the temps this far out. You know what those temps held or it was actually warmer. Don't say we have a chance for snow maybe the severe north but not 90 percent of the area

[algae888]

Has anyone looked at the temps the next two weeks. If you did you will see snow won't happen. All winter everyone said don't worry about the temps this far out. You know what those temps held or it was actually warmer. Don't say we have a chance for snow maybe the severe north but not 90 percent of the area

If a storm goes underneath us with the block to our North and cold air in Canada it will snow. Obviously if a storm Cuts it's going to rain. The pattern we are entering now is different from the one all winter and it seems like it would only become more established over the next few weeks. Forecast highs and lows are useless more than several days out.

[sroc4]

Has anyone looked at the temps the next two weeks. If you did you will see snow won't happen. All winter everyone said don't worry about the temps this far out. You know what those temps held or it was actually warmer. Don't say we have a chance for snow maybe the severe north but not 90 percent of the area

Track this type of statement belongs in Banter. If you continue to post this sort of thing here it will be deleted. YOU CANNOT SIMPLY LOOK AT LR TEMPS AND SAY IT CAN OR CANT SNOW. Yes if a surface temp ends up at 50* IT WONT SNOW. But if the upper levels evolve such that a system comes together the temps profiles will change from what you see now. Again do not post this sort of post in this thread or it will be deleted.

[devsman]

If gfs is right, this can be a fun march for all!

[Grselig]

If gfs is right, this can be a fun march for all!

Maybe.......blocking!!! I'd love a March 15 storm (my birthday)

[Armando Salvadore]

Pattern recognition has superseded modelology throughout this winter, and there is no difference here. I would still be surprised if we evade a snow event with this pattern. The ECMWF has steadily improved with the NAO and concomitant 50/50, as well as more height rises out west. You don't need a meridional ridge spike to pole; a neutralizing PNA would be sufficient with this Atlantic set up. And yes, heights will rise in the SE US ahead of the propagating short wave, but as long as the confluent flow / attendent TPV lobe remains near Nove Scotia, that northern stream wave will be forced to transfer its energy southeastward. That's meteorology. We shall see how it plays out.

Tom, 12z EPS and 18Z GEFS do keep that north atlantic rossby wave configuration of most interest, and exactly as you said about the pacific and PNA domain. All you need is a PJ disturbance to hook with up induced confluent flow over SE canada via TPV, and yeah it makes it interesting. 18z GFS showed this exact statement perfectly. Squeeze the ridge between the davis strait and Greenland, and maybe we come out with at least one more event. Period i'd say to watch would be between 9th-12th. And yeah, about that EPS control.... lol

[sroc4]

Take it to banter

[skinsfan1177]

I don't get how you can look at temps and make staements like this. patter reconition is key. cold air looks to get trapped beneath the block which I like

[sroc4]

I don't get how you can look at temps and make staements like this. patter reconition is key. cold air looks to get trapped beneath the block which I like

You cant Skins. Of course temp profiles can and do change often. We all know this. If you strictly look at temps over a 14day period to predict if it will snow well that's ones prerogative. I do not disagree it will be hard to get snow, but not because the temp forecast on my accuweather app says so. High temps Sat will hover around freezing on Sat with a low temp in the low teens or lower. Obviously it can snow with those temps, but it wont snow on Sat because there isn't any energy in the upper levels to trigger precip. Trolling will not be tolerated on this site. This is not directed at you Skins

[track17]

Actually you can look at temp profiles just as you can patterns but again you are not allowed to disagree on here.

[skinsfan1177]

I don't get how you can look at temps and make staements like this. patter reconition is key. cold air looks to get trapped beneath the block which I like

You cant Skins.  Of course temp profiles can and do change often.  We all know this.  If you strictly look at temps over a 14day period to predict if it will snow well that's ones prerogative.  I do not disagree it will be hard to get snow, but not because the temp forecast on my accuweather app says so.  High temps Sat will hover around freezing on Sat with a low temp in the low teens or lower.  Obviously it can snow with those temps, but it wont snow on Sat because there isn't any energy in the upper levels to trigger precip.  Trolling will not be tolerated on this site.  This is not directed at you Skins

I agree and I love your analysis and many others on here .

[Math23x7]

The February QBO just came out and it was at 14.78, the highest QBO reading on record...

[Frank_Wx]

Not going to lie...the 18z GFS was pretty gorgeous. That's an impressive signal and it's not even in the 'way' long range. You have Atlantic blocking with a transient ridge spike in the west. As mentioned yesterday, if you can time both to materialize at the same time then probability of seeing a snowstorm increases dramatically. Looking forward to waking up to hopefully see the 00z runs show something similar.

[skinsfan1177]

Blocking too

[Frank_Wx]

Not going to lie...the 18z GFS was pretty gorgeous. That's an impressive signal and it's not even in the 'way' long range. You have Atlantic blocking with a transient ridge spike in the west. As mentioned yesterday, if you can time both to materialize at the same time then probability of seeing a snowstorm increases dramatically. Looking forward to waking up to hopefully see the 00z runs show something similar.

I woke up (thank the Lord), but the GFS and even other guidance do not look nearly as sexy. The Pacific continues to be the root cause to the problem.

[algae888]

frank the models have not backed off the blocking. it's still there just that the gefs have a stronger western trough compared to the eps. they have flipped in the last two days. interesting to see how this plays out!


yesterdays gefs..

[docstox12]

frank the models have not backed off the blocking. it's still there just that the gefs have a stronger western trough compared to the eps. they have flipped in the last two days. interesting to see how this plays out!


yesterdays gefs..

OK, Al, still time to see if this can play out in a positive way for us.It will be fun to watch .

[algae888]

the blocking (-nao) has actually trended stronger. take out the warm/weak blocking members and we are primed for a snowstorm.

6z gefs and yesterdays 6z gfs

block is much stronger. unless that western Canada trough gets really strong we should be in good shape.
and we are not done at this point. the pv will get trapped in central/eastern Canada moving through the next several days. so two time frames to watch. 7-9 day and 11-14 day. one last hurrah for the winter that wasn't

[Armando Salvadore]

While not necessarily convinced for a big coastal, i can see how a PJ wave is timed perfectly with the back side of a trough for next weekend with this type of blocking showing up on the 0z EPS. As Tom said, even with a neutral PNA, the atlantic would need to compensate and it may just accomplish it.

[algae888]

While not necessarily convinced for a big coastal, i can see how a PJ wave is timed perfectly with the back side of a trough for next weekend with this type of blocking showing up on the 0z EPS. As Tom said, even with a neutral PNA, the atlantic would need to compensate and it may just accomplish it.

Armando take a look at today's CMC while not as strong system very juicy something I think more likely to happen than not. GFS has flipped from a few days ago. Let's see what the Euro shows today

[algae888]

While GFS operational at the surface doesn't look great for us all the features are there. That is one monster block however it wants to dump the trough and cold into the West. The CMC on the other hand splits the polar vortex and the main feature is in Eastern Canada. Very interested to see what the Euro shows today. With the amplification all the models are showing one would have to assume that the Pacific jet buckles and the cold has to come east. unless there's some unknown Force this winter preventing this from happening

[Frank_Wx]

A -NAO block in March is not going to bring the same affects to our pattern like a -NAO block in January during La Nina forcing events. As has been the winter pattern all season long, the Trop PV remains unfavorably placed which drives the cold into the western U.S. and polar jet north of our area. The QBO for February finished at +14 which I believe is a record. The Pacific Jet does not show many signs of slowing down. Again, snow threat exists between the 10th-15th but that's only if the PNA responds favorably. Last couple of model run paint an ugly picture. Given the seasonal trend, I would not get your hopes up.

[algae888]

Looks like it's going to be a big run of the Euro today. And our 144 polar vortex splits over Central and Eastern Canada. The Alaskan western Canada vort looks really weak so far let's see how it plays out

[algae888]

Maddonne Frank what are PNA Ridge on today's Euro with the block over Greenland

[algae888]

WOW at the euro full latitude trough next weekend really digs it dumps the cold in the East with that look we may have to worry about suppression. Good to see it this far out probably is going to adjust

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