Re: FEB 6TH POTENTIAL Update

by **SNOW MAN** Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:26 am

rb924119 wrote:DONT LOOK NOW, BUT 12Z GFS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE FOR SUNDAY

Sorry Rb I just can't get excited anymore. My bubble has been burst to many times this year. Sad

by **algae888** Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:27 am

rb924119 wrote:DONT LOOK NOW, BUT 12Z GFS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE FOR SUNDAY

Yeah rb big changes on the operational GFS today. February 6th storm really intensifies and acts as a block and now have a new system a day later which is snow to rain nice front and thump models are obviously having a hard time with the setup as all guidance from last night is starting to Trend colder in the mid-range that's why we can't model hump and panic when there's a few operational runs that show unfavorable pattern

by **rb924119** Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:27 am

So has the CMC. Not that they're big hits, but these improvements show how volatile the evolution of the northeast Pacific is to the forecast. I'll continue holding my course for now on this system.....

by **algae888** Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:30 am

There are just too many vorts from the pac and models are having a tough time on which ones to Keyon

by **billg315** Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:48 am

Well the 12z GFS essentially is showing nothing for Sunday, maybe a few flurries and then it looks like it's taking the next storm to our west with primarily rain (maybe a backend backlash of some snow behind it). Of course the GFS could be out to lunch. Wouldn't be the first time.

by **dkodgis** Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:46 am

I see the NWS has a 40% chance of snow up by me. Are things maybe looking a bit better?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:53 am

dkodgis wrote:I see the NWS has a 40% chance of snow up by me. Are things maybe looking a bit better?

The last 2 runs of the GFS and Euro show a snow to ice to rain scenario for next Monday night Tuesday with The most snow and ice to the north and west of New York City more north than West. The snowfall maps as always so hard to decipher what's snow and what it's freezing rain. Iin northern Rockland County and Northern Westchester County north there are areas of 6 to 8 inches of what they show as snow which is probably more like 4 to 6 inches of snow and a quarter inch of freezing rain followed by some rain. Right now it sounds similar to what we had here about 10 days ago.

by **docstox12** Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:19 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
dkodgis wrote:I see the NWS has a 40% chance of snow up by me. Are things maybe looking a bit better?

The last 2 runs of the GFS and Euro show a snow to ice to rain scenario for next Monday night Tuesday with The most snow and ice to the north and west of New York City more north than West. The snowfall maps as always so hard to decipher what's snow and what it's freezing rain. Iin northern Rockland County and Northern Westchester County north there are areas of 6 to 8 inches of what they show as snow which is probably more like 4 to 6 inches of snow and a quarter inch of freezing rain followed by some rain. Right now it sounds similar to what we had here about 10 days ago.

That's fine with me,CP, rather than the cutter all rain scenario.Like you mentioned, we have had a nice wintry feel up here this whole week what with the white sleetpack freshened by that 1.7 inches of snow the other day.You go down the Orange Turnpike and south on 17 past the old Duck Cedar and there is nothing on the ground,lol.4 to 6 would be fine with me as it would freeze solid after the rain left.Even Lee said last night it would turn cold again after this storm.Left a comment on General banter for you CP.

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