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February 9, 2017 Godzilla: Final Call & Observations

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February 9, 2017 Godzilla: Final Call & Observations  Empty February 9, 2017 Godzilla: Final Call & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:28 pm

Welcome to the final update of 2K17's first Godzilla.

February 9, 2017 Godzilla: Final Call & Observations  2017020818_GFS_018_KHPN_winter_ml.thumb.png.63a404b0ed9bf49aadb4ea2b11ce6090

This is a sounding from the 18z GFS that shows instability in the air mass, which could lead to periods of thunder-snow tomorrow.

February 9, 2017 Godzilla: Final Call & Observations  589b9afd59d44_simuawips(24).thumb.gif.b846ff68675c96e4dd689d4ddb9b899e

The latest radar is showing impressive convection gather in the south ahead of the main surface low. With convection also sitting offshore, this storm has a ton of energy to work with.

February 9, 2017 Godzilla: Final Call & Observations  589b90994e6dc_precip_6hourly_NECONUS_hr024(1).thumb.png.df71651e27878518f08c53e7ef75631a

The GFS, along with other guidance, concentrates the heaviest banding over NYC Metro. The surface low pressure is expected to 'bomb' out as it approached the 40/70 BM. As it does so, the dynamics from the upper level jet structure is going to put this region under snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour at times during the day Thursday. Visibility will drop to zero.

500mb closes off on some guidance, but 700mb is definitely likely to close off. Incredible frontogenesis, or lift, is going to enhance snowfall rates AND also try to slow the storm down once it gets near the BM. This is why models are showing greater snow amounts today. The storm is not expected to move as quickly as it once did. Temperatures are going to crash very quickly. 850mb winds are expected to be in the 40-50mph range, locally higher along immediate coast. This will help temperatures drop below freezing. Ratios will start out 10:1 then gradually rise to 12:1 by mid to late morning Thursday. Higher ratios are expected for far N&W areas.

Here is my final call:

February 9, 2017 Godzilla: Final Call & Observations  FInal_Call_February_9_2017_Godzilla

Where the heaviest banding sets up is a nowcast situation. Some models, like the NAM, are dead-set on a dual jet structure which develops two convective bands from NEPA to southern NY and another from CNJ to LI. This is possible but I leaned against it for now, only because the overall flow remains progressive and other short range models do not really show it. However, if it does set-up then some areas in NEPA and southern NY could see in excess of 12" of snow since you have ratios working in your favor.

Lastly, the gold box. This is where I feel the jackpot will be. Someone within this gold box could see near 2 feet of snow. A Roidzilla. Most likely you'll be in the 18-23" range, but who knows. The storm will slow down, H7 will close off, and incredible convective bands will stream in off the Atlantic. The outflow of this system is going to be incredible!!

Start Time: 1-3am (from west to east)
End Time: 1-3pm (from west to east, likely 4pm over LI/CT)

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:31 pm

WOOOHOOOOOOO @ the red zone!
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:32 pm

this is gonna be good, i'm very happy to be in the 8-12.

party party party
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:33 pm

All NYC schools CLOSED tomorrow!
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:35 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:this is gonna be good, i'm very happy to be in the 8-12.

party  party  party

Called it.

Enjoy the storm, ragazzi. I have to take care of some things. Will be back to posting for tonight's GFS run. Will try for the NAM. Although I am done with models. I am dead set on my final call.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:36 pm

Woohoo, me and all amoung others are in the jackpot zone!! Sorry to hoot and hollar but dayumm frank this is exciting, zero visibility! Thundersnow, this is go be incredible. No way the busses in yonkers will be running, too many hills.
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Post by mikeypizano Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:36 pm

MADDONE! I will take that 8-12~!
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:37 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:All NYC schools CLOSED tomorrow!

the NYC board of ed website won't load.

too many people trying to get on lol! lol! lol! lol!
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Post by Grselig Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:38 pm

12 to 18!!! Nice storm. Still has drama. Gonna be fun to watch.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:38 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:All NYC schools CLOSED tomorrow!
WOWWWW!! Are you serious! Its been a few years!
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Post by oldtimer Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:38 pm

OMG Great The fact that it will slow down some No one stated that Thanks Frank

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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:39 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:All NYC schools CLOSED tomorrow!
WOWWWW!! Are you serious! Its been  a few years!

they put it on their twitter also about 8 minutes ago announcing it
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Post by frank 638 Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:39 pm

Frank you are the beat you have me for 12 to 18 plus maddone this is very good news after having a boring winter thanks you Fran for the update party partyupset party party

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:41 pm

Did you guys see what happened north of bposton with the ice, 55 car mash up, video of cars spin all over, 2000 flights canceled!
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:43 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Did you guys see what happened north of bposton with the ice, 55 car mash up, video of cars spin all over, 2000 flights canceled!

crazy, i saw it on TWC.

also a train at the LIRR derailed this morning and a few hours ago..they are already a mess without snow
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:44 pm

Awesome job Frank.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:44 pm

Frank your map is awesome, not just cause I am in the best spot but because I agree with it completely, was how i pictured it, but did not think there b a yellow box. See you on later tonight, and thanks for all your hard work on this!
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:45 pm

Here we go 11 reported torn from our boy down south lots of deep convection. That only means we get it next.

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Post by Taffy Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:47 pm

NYC closed schools?? Armageddon, I tell ya.
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Post by Snow88 Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:48 pm

NYC SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED TOMORROW
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:50 pm

Are you serious Yonkers hasnt canceled school, LOL
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:52 pm

deBlasio must be setting up his reelection with this one
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Post by Dtone Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:53 pm

wow very bullish!
and I made it to the gold box!

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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:54 pm

48*. Temp has dropped 12* in 2 hours.
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Post by Taffy Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:54 pm

by RJB8525 Today at 6:52 pm
deBlasio must be setting up his reelection with this one.

LOL but at least he is giving people time for alternate child care.
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