February 9, 2017 Godzilla: Final Call & Observations

48*. Temp has dropped 12* in 2 hours.

by RJB8525 Today at 6:52 pm
deBlasio must be setting up his reelection with this one.

LOL but at least he is giving people time for alternate child care.

Frank can I share your map and synopsis on my FB? I tell everyone about you and they ask me whats frank saying, you should be very proud.

Great job Frank, agree with that call. I mentioned earlier today about catching something offshore and models showing that slowing of the trough/more amplified. For you to see what I’m talking about, refer to my graph. What we have, is convection along the U.S. coast that has gone a bit unnoticed since we’re heavily distracted with snow maps and everything else. Look at the 250mb jet next to the depiction of the water vapor. You see how those arrows are spreading out due east of the NJ coast? What that is, it’s irrotational outflow or divergence/lifting air. The 12z and 18z guidance today hinted and even trended a bit towards the trough deepening as we see more phasing/interaction AND, more significantly, the mid-level low/trough is almost trying to cut-off and tilt in a negative orientation. This may inevitably have implications that it may be slowing down the trough and amplifying it. If that is the case, we’ll see more convection arise as more energy is ejected back towards the mid- atlantic and a slowing down a bit. Frank brought it up above also. This will be relatively "quick", but it won't be out of here within 4-6 hours.

News 12 saying white plains may see 10 inches, playing it conservative, I think they need to be a bit more bullish at this time or def at 11pm news.

jmanley32 wrote:Frank can I share your map and synopsis on my FB? I tell everyone about you and they ask me whats frank saying, you should be very proud.

Yes, don't even have to ask.

Armando Salvadore wrote:Great job Frank, agree with that call.  I mentioned earlier today about catching something offshore and models showing that slowing of the trough/more amplified. For you to see what I’m talking about, refer to my graph. What we have, is convection along the U.S. coast that has gone a bit unnoticed since we’re heavily distracted with snow maps and everything else. Look at the 250mb jet next to the depiction of the water vapor. You see how those arrows are spreading out due east of the NJ coast? What that is, it’s irrotational outflow or divergence/lifting air. The 12z and 18z guidance today hinted and even trended a bit towards the trough deepening as we see more phasing/interaction AND, more significantly, the mid-level low/trough is almost trying to cut-off and tilt in a negative orientation. This may inevitably have implications that it may be slowing down the trough and amplifying it. If that is the case, we’ll see more convection arise as more energy is ejected back towards the mid- atlantic and a slowing down a bit. Frank brought it up above also.  This will be relatively "quick", but it won't be out of here within 4-6 hours.

Great post. Didn't see your earlier one but glad you see the same thing. RPM looks pretty close to my call. Overall, models agree on a 12" plus event for many.

RMP has 12 + for the area with a pocket of 16+ for LI

SREF mean still 10" for BGM....ahhh what to believe lol

SoulSingMG wrote:All NYC schools CLOSED tomorrow!

they closed us a little while ago...here in monmouth county

School closed in my town too. Yeah...kids are free to shovel for me!!

Dam, just saw the RPM Frank, appears to be right in line with your call! Hoping for thundersnow, the isentropic lift will be incredible. Wonder if we see like a dual banding like what the 18z NAM hinted at a bit and also what you mentioned. Things like these we won't know until we're underway.

Thanks Frank for the right up..are we still going to do a chat thru the forum tonight? I missed alot of the postings today..trying to catch up...

syosnow94 wrote:Frank be honest.......How much did it hurt placing me in the gold box?

Lol

weatherwatchermom"Thanks Frank for the right up..are we still going to do a chat thru the forum tonight? I missed alot of the postings today..trying to catch up...




Yes, tonight in the forum 10-11PM

No chat tonight. Just posting here on the forum.

"Frank_Wx"]No chat tonight. Just posting here on the forum.


Sorry Frank, I thought you wrote that there wouldn't be a chat but just "talk" between 10 and 11 on the forum. My apologies.

Thanks, Frank and company - great write-ups , awesome maps and tomorrow is something to cheer about.......FINALLY!!!

weatherwatchermom wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:All NYC schools CLOSED tomorrow!

they closed us a little while ago...here in monmouth county

Nothing here yet on schools

Taffy wrote:weatherwatchermom"Thanks Frank for the right up..are we still going to do a chat thru the forum tonight? I missed alot of the postings today..trying to catch up...




Yes, tonight in the forum 10-11PM

No frank decided on no chat. just posting on forum.

weatherwatchermom wrote:Thanks Frank for the right up..are we still going to do a chat thru the forum tonight? I missed alot of the postings today..trying to catch up...

If you want someone to chat with, I am on Facebook, or texting is fine.

Yonkers schools closed, not that it matters for me yet...shes still 3 almost 4 though. Unbelievable my wifes job instructions was no exceptions be on time 8:30am.

Good news for the convection, my dad is reporting lightninng, hail, and thunder in Johnson City, TN. Also said his temp dropped 5 degrees in 15 minutes at onset. Bring on the snow baby!! #STORMMODE

jmanley32 wrote:

Taffy wrote:weatherwatchermom"Thanks Frank for the right up..are we still going to do a chat thru the forum tonight? I missed alot of the postings today..trying to catch up...




Yes, tonight in the forum 10-11PM

No frank decided on no chat. just posting on forum.

Yes, I saw that he originally said chat and then cancelled it. I took it to mean that between 10-11PM that it would be more informal than the way we regularly post on here. I believe he mentioned those hours particularly for the forum. But I've been here since the wee hours and I could be wrong. Perhaps just my interpretation of his meaning.

He will be back to go over the final model runs before its nowcast time. Getting very close : )

So am I allowed to drink wine and talk on here even though I'm only getting a good ole 2-5" lol

aiannone wrote:So am I allowed to drink wine and talk on here even though I'm only getting a good ole 2-5" lol

What kind of wine?