Tracking Hurricane Irma: Part 2

LOL, love that Cuban cigar line Doc and Joe! Anyway, any weakening is all good news but that big stretch of warm water ahead spells trouble.It will be interesting to see how the hurricane reacts.Hoping for continued weakening to help Florida out as much as possible.

sroc4 wrote:You can see her entire western flank took a hit from the land interaction, but she is actually back over open water for the moment.  Her current movement looks like maybe back to a little more WNW instead of more W.  Its going to be a really close call if she comes back over Cuba again or not.  

Wow, Doc she is really going to have to make a sharp turn up the way it's moving west in these depictions.

You can see by the steering layers as you go up in altitude the steering is currently favoring the northern turn very soon.

Images below are from lower to higher in altitude:

10-4 Roger that Doc.Thank you.

Latest NHC advisory:

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 79.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

Who doesn't like a Cuban smoke?

Yes she should be heading into open waters with warm temps Rocket fuel for her, I believe the temps go down 100' deep in the ocean so she should undoubtedly regain strength.

We shall see...........

Latest satellite imagery shows her still over land. looks to be weakening fairly quickly hopefully she can get to a cat 2 before landfall to minimize damage in Florida she has really slowed down looks like she won't make landfall in Florida until sometime around noon tomorrow

The eye wall has deteriorated. This is fantastic news hopefully she can sit there for a few hours and weaken even more

Ray great call and kudos to you.

Let's see whathappens once she pulls away from Cuba. Low shear and hot eater. If she stays more west and her eye stays over water then she can really ramp up as she moves North. Time will tell but not as ominous as a few days ago for the EC of Fla.

algae888 wrote:The eye wall has deteriorated. This is fantastic news hopefully she can sit there for a few hours and weaken even more

Yes and no and u may think I am nuts but if she is dud the NHC will.lose the general.public respect and will NOT heed warnings when the next one comes. There eill be outcry for $ lost etc. Look at Irene and Sandy up here case in point!!
Yes we won't see the catastrophic damage once thought.

Mugs, that's exactly what I was said a few days ago. A few ensemble members have Jose striking south Florida next week. Everybody will stay put thinking it is a dud. And that will be the one that devastates Miami. That's how it usually works.

amugs wrote:

algae888 wrote:The eye wall has deteriorated. This is fantastic news hopefully she can sit there for a few hours and weaken even more

Yes and no and u may think I am nuts but if she is dud the NHC will.lose the general.public respect and will NOT heed warnings when the next one comes. There eill be outcry for $ lost etc. Look at Irene and Sandy up here case in point!!
Yes we won't see the catastrophic damage once thought.

Maybe not on the east coast, but sorry, west coast will see catastrophic damage. 12' storm surge and 150 mph winds are no joke. My brother is now in the path of this BIT*H and I'm trying to get him to leave. I75 is now clear since everyone left and gas is available. 1 lost life is one too many. By Florida being proactive, people will see it's better to be safe than sorry and it won't be another Katrina... prayers for all in Florida.

Janet, the 11AM advisory has Irma moving due west. If it doesn't make a northward turn anytime soon, this will go down (for Florida) as one of the biggest busts in history.

We know better as weather followers but 99% of the public hates weatherman and even makes fun of them because of situations EXACTLY like what we are seeing before our very eyes. For 5 days the NHC had the greater Miami area preparing for doomsday. 5 million + people were ordered to evacuate west and north. Now west and north is the bullseye and Miami is the safest place in the state to be. Oh and by the way she's weakened FAST over land.

It sounds sick to say but if Irma doesn't hit as at least a cat4 and cause catastrophic damage ALL CREDIBILITY WILL BE LOST. Sucks to say but true.

Math23x7 wrote:Janet, the 11AM advisory has Irma moving due west.  If it doesn't make a northward turn anytime soon, this will go down (for Florida) as one of the biggest busts in history.

That's a big IF. 11 am update still has a forecast up the coast. It was always going to be a quick sharp turn wherever that turn would be. Until I see it in the middle of the gulf, there is great concern for Florida. My brother's neighborhood just got added to the mandatory evacuation zone with estimated storm surge of 15-20'. He is at 14' elevation.

latests microwave imagery indicated the main eyewall structure is actually mostly over water and not over land  

12z GFS rapidly strengthens Irma near the Florida straights. S of Naples up thru TB should be extremely worried about inundation from the Gulf.

amugs wrote:

algae888 wrote:The eye wall has deteriorated. This is fantastic news hopefully she can sit there for a few hours and weaken even more

Yes and no and u may think I am nuts but if she is dud the NHC will.lose the general.public respect and will NOT heed warnings when the next one comes. There eill be outcry for $ lost etc. Look at Irene and Sandy up here case in point!!
Yes we won't see the catastrophic damage once thought.

today's day and age the general public understands how hard it is to forecast a hurricane . Every news outlet is updating the info every hour . I think we still do not know exactly where the eye is going to hit . Hurricanes are obviously a lot more serious then the 12 inch snowstorms we all get excited about . I have a summer house in Montauk , I prepare for any potential strike from even a tropical storm. Better safe then sorry !

And to add again Great job here guys !!!!! I love this forum for the information!!!!!

Eye wall looking like a healthy convective flare up at the end of the loop. Also and it may be a mere blip, the N turn may be just about to start as seen by the very end of the loop.

Look at the miami long range radar.  This is the best way right now to see the actual track shifting.  It looks like it is starting to make its northern turn

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16%2Fmesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80&fref=gc&dti=625060274303169

Probably a large risk of tornado damage.. since the eye will be on west coast, the rest of the state will be under tornado threats, so everyone needs to be prepared regardless of the track.

Looks like northern turn has occurred. I suspect she will grow back to Cat 4.

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like northern turn has occurred. I suspect she will grow back to Cat 4.

Frank by the next update it will def be cat 4 again.  The sat imagery is indicating re-organization already around the eyewall.

Math23x7 wrote:Janet, the 11AM advisory has Irma moving due west.  If it doesn't make a northward turn anytime soon, this will go down (for Florida) as one of the biggest busts in history.

DT?? He BUSTED YUUUGGEEE!!
She is turning North and will RI, she made landfall - she is going to go to CAT 4 and possibly CAT 5.

She's improving IMO. Subsidence increasing in the eye and the IE cloud tops are increasing in height.

JB
not a full landfall hollow out the eye caseIts a disruption and likely followed by an eruption as Irma re-intensfies

If Irma intensifies quicker and stronger than the models predict, it could pull her more to the right. Remember Hurricane Charlie? It intensified quicker and more than the models thought, Charlie made a right hook and smashed into the coast well south of Tampa.