Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

[Guest]

Heading out of the house for a few hours with my son (HES DOING FANTASTIC BY THE WAY). I’m sensing a HUGE EURO run in an hour. Someone post the results of it please. I’ll check in Mobil. Rayon’s waiting till it runs to put out a video.

[amugs]

Euro

Basically another tick NW. All we need is about 50 miles more NW for this to be area wide Secs wirthy.

[Carter bk]

It seems more in line with what i was thinking i can see a area wide 6" for all. The gfs should start to cave when does gfs

[lglickman1]

Is it safe to say we shouldn't expect much more than a SECS for this threat , or does it have the potential to produce more?

[crippo84]

These appear to be good trends at this juncture. Having a direct hit at this point - still about 4 days out - is always unsettling although exciting. If we keep taking steps in the right direction over the next 24 hours perhaps we'll be onto something great. But the subtle steps with all models at this point is encouraging.

[RJB8525]

So TWC was just saying the new EURO has the low a little further out to sea than previous run but still brings good snows and s long snow event

[amugs]

The trend has been NW and why? The WAR = Western Atlantic Ridge is under modeled and has been since the summer. This means it will press on the storm track to its west thus moving teh track closer to the coast. Not a definite but a very likely scenario.

Also it will be snowing through very cold air meaning the ration will be high like 17-21:1.

Give us .3 QPF and you are looking at a 4-6" event.

Just my opin here

[amugs]

[jmanley32]

.3 isn't much precip so if we can get 1 inch qpf it would be a godzilla? Is that amount of qpf out of the question?

[jmanley32]

the ooz snow map was a lot better even translated to qpf.

[RJB8525]

The trend has been NW and why? The WAR = Western Atlantic Ridge is under modeled and has been since the summer. This means it will press on the storm track to its west thus moving teh track closer to the coast. Not a definite but a very likely scenario.

Also it will be snowing through very cold air meaning the ration will be high like 17-21:1.

Give us .3 QPF and you are looking at a 4-6" event.

Just my opin here

hey 4-6" sounds good to me! lol

[Guest]

NWS has our area 30-40% chance of 4” or more snow for Fri night Saturday. (50-70% for LI). Brings .5” qpf into central LI and from there .25” west into metro Jersey and s to the shore. I’d say 15:1 at for all so a general 4-8” west to east across the area. Hopefully trends wetter the next 3 days for all of us

[jake732]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

not to great

[Guest]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

not to great

Considering this morning the qpf forecast was dry this is a good move in our favor. Plus I’ll sign for .5” Imby. That’s 8” verbatim

[jake732]

18z still in big disagreement....dont remember seeing inside 5 days that 1 model has a storm a few days away from the next

[Guest]

NWS has the storm off NC border inside Hatteras moving up just inside the BM to just off Maine coast. Goes from 1016 to 988 in 24 hours

[algae888]

18z still in big disagreement....dont remember seeing inside 5 days that 1 model has a storm a few days away from the next

Here is the latest disco from the National Weather Service.

"Now for the weekend. As compared to 24 hours ago there is a bit more agreement between the global models and the GFS is keying on the same shortwave as the EC/CMC diving down from the north pole, but its upper jet is much more broad with the core out ahead of the vort max by 18z Sat resulting in a flatter H5 flow and cyclogenesis occurring off the SE coast from a piece of northern stream energy phasing with southern stream energy. This soln is a complete miss for the local area and is an outlier. Additionally, the NAEFS and almost all GEFS members are showing the same type of soln, thus anything with a GFS influence has been discounted for now. An 150+kt upper jet working through the northern plains Fri night/Sat morning results in an amplifying H5 trough as seen in the CMC/EC and UKMET. While there is better consensus today as compared to 24 hours ago, too much spread remains amongst the deterministic and ensemble guidance to zero in on any on soln. However, better model consensus has prompted an increase in pops on Sat into the high chc range for now. The potential for a heavy snow event exits, especially east of NYC and with a high snow ratio expected but will highlight this potential in the HWO for the entire CWA due to the low track uncertainty."

[Math23x7]

What we may do for travel purposes is leave Montreal Friday night instead of Saturday morning and spend the night in Plattsburgh. Maybe by doing this, I can get in on part of the snow (just as long as we don't get stranded )

[Guest]

Rayno video says the Euro gives NYC some snow Saturday but probably not over 6”. If the trough goes neutral faster NE gets hit hard but not NYC. The GFS holds the energy back and focuses on the second storm which would bring significant snow and ice south of NYC to the mid-Atlantic. He’s leaning EURO. Neither one seems like a big deal for us IF HES CORRECT.

[Carter bk]

I still have hope each day that passes is going to get more exciting

[jimv45]

Kind of going with Rb when he said he is writing this off on Monday, still got some time will see.

[lglickman1]

How does the long range look? January thaw followed by reload of cold and potentially stormy, or a sustained warmer pattern?

[Guest]

How does the long range look? January thaw followed by reload of cold and potentially stormy, or a sustained warmer pattern?

Weeklies actually look cold thru January last I read

[Guest]

Whatever happened to our nehative NAO that was forecast?

[jmanley32]

Nws has a hwo out saying potential for heavy snow sat and sat night.

[rb924119]

As far as I'm concerned, I'm interested for an event, as stated a while back, between the 3rd-6th. Anything this weekend aside from something equivalent to a clipper is done as far I'm concerned. This pattern took a completely different direction from what was modeled and what I thought would evolve a week ago. After my next period of interest, we will revert to a La Niña-esque pattern for a while, with time-mean ridging over the East. With the pattern changing like that, our chances during the highlighted period may be heightened when compared to this one that I no longer think will occur, as we typically do get storms during a transition. We will see. Sorry for all the hype, guys and gals.

[Guest]

As far as I'm concerned, I'm interested for an event, as stated a while back, between the 3rd-6th. Anything this weekend aside from something equivalent to a clipper is done as far I'm concerned. This pattern took a completely different direction from what was modeled and what I thought would evolve a week ago. After my next period of interest, we will revert to a La Niña-esque pattern for a while, with time-mean ridging over the East. With the pattern changing like that, our chances during the highlighted period may be heightened when compared to this one that I no longer think will occur, as we typically do get storms during a transition. We will see. Sorry for all the hype, guys and gals.

You and the NWS have a weird relationship. You get excited and hype a time period they downplay it. Then when you throw in the towel they sound the alarms. Hysterical

Personally the fact that Frank and especially our own hype man aMugs, have been quiet is disconcerting. Meanwhile the NWS is feeling more confident than 24 hours ago. This whole thing is nuts. I need a few drinks.

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