Seismic Activity - Volcanos

Folks,

If you have not heard there are three volcanos that are ready to blow their stacks.
This is all due to low solar activity and low irradiance from the sun on planet earth.
This has happened many times throughout history and even recently in teh last century that caused global cooling by .2-.3*C (1960' and 70's)

From our own Isotherm
"Low solar --> increased galactic cosmic rays --> interplanetary magnetic field modulation of earthquake frequency --> volcanism. "

Mt. Agung - evacuations of teh entire island of 10,0000. Over 500 tremors have been happening a day since Monday.

MANARO ON VANUATU - they have evacuated the island of 7,000 by boat and air there. Located in teh South Pacific

This last could be the mother of volcanoes - and holy poop if this goes off.

CAMPI FLEGREL in the homelaned of Italia, they are nervous cause this is a super volcano that last time it blew was 40,000 years ago I believe and caused a volcanic winter over Europe that is said to have killed off the last of neanderthal. It is reported that their have been active fissures and tremors and may be connected to the EQ that the experienced that last few years in Italy. This would rival Vesuvius from all accounts and we know from history what that bad boy did.

Discuss and post articles and tweets/links.

Here is a link that provides live updates on the volcano situation. However, be forewarned that there is an extremely annoying ad that plays every time the page is refreshed. Also, updates are only provided when something new happens. The wait could be 10 minutes or 3 hours.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/859280/Bali-volcano-update-Mount-Agung-eruption-latest-seismic-graphs-news-maps-warnings-live

Scary stuff, imagine if they all blew at the same time, I have to imagine that would cause disaster for the entire globe to some extent? Is it also no coincidence that this year yellowstones super volcano has also had higher than normal activity?  I know that is highly unlikely to erupt but might we just be ehjeaded back to the stone ages I mean how many islands have already been left in ruins, this year its kinda starting to scarre me whats next a noreaster that stalls with 200mph winds and 15 feet of snow lol (that wouldn't be funny btw)

jmanley32 wrote:Scary stuff, imagine if they all blew at the same time, I have to imagine that would cause disaster for the entire globe to some extent? Is it also no coincidence that this year yellowstones super volcano has also had higher than normal activity?  I know that is highly unlikely to erupt but might we just be ehjeaded back to the stone ages I mean how many islands have already been left in ruins, this year its kinda starting to scarre me whats next a noreaster that stalls with 200mph winds and 15 feet of snow lol (that wouldn't be funny btw)

Knock a "0" off those winds and I think we'd all be ready to sacrifice an entire winter for that provided it would be guaranteed ahahahaha

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Scary stuff, imagine if they all blew at the same time, I have to imagine that would cause disaster for the entire globe to some extent? Is it also no coincidence that this year yellowstones super volcano has also had higher than normal activity?  I know that is highly unlikely to erupt but might we just be ehjeaded back to the stone ages I mean how many islands have already been left in ruins, this year its kinda starting to scarre me whats next a noreaster that stalls with 200mph winds and 15 feet of snow lol (that wouldn't be funny btw)

Knock a "0" off those winds and I think we'd all be ready to sacrifice an entire winter for that provided it would be guaranteed ahahahaha

Woulkd you all really want 15 feet of snow in one storm? I like snow but that would cause massive problems, including deaths im sure due to nobody being able to move anywhere for months.

Thank you for making the thread Mugs. Good stuff!

Several points:

1) Volcanoes are stochastic - numerous, capricious variables that make eruption forecasting exceptionally difficult;

2) Monitor degassing of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide from the edifice -- higher (lower) SO2 levels tend to indicate that magma is closer (further away) from the surface. This doesn't necessarily guarantee eruption, but typically, increased SO2 degassing tends to indicate that the magma is progressing further up the mountain;

3) Since 1880, the only two volcanic eruptions of greater than VEI 5 were VEI 6 Krakatoa (Indonesia, 1883 - acted concomitantly with very low solar activity to produce a significant cool period for the remainder of the 19th century), as well as VEI 6 Pinatubo (1991; 0.2-0.3c cooling, initially countervailed by ++ENSO);

4) The explosive history of Mt. Agung should be noted. This coupled with the unprecedented high levels of seismicity increase the probability of a significant eruption. Most eruptions fall below VEI 5; however, the history and seismicity suggest a major eruption is certainly possible;

5) The time period of eruption is rather atypical, as is the current ENSO state. Most of the major eruptions occurred late winter-spring, which translated into ample time for atmospheric sulfate loading, and subsequent modulation of the winter pattern. If this volcano doesn't erupt for another month or more, it may be too late to materially affect the upcoming winter. Additionally, if a significant eruption occurs, it would be the first time - since the 1932 eruption - that a cold ENSO state occurred concurrently (could have global temperature implications for the first year - would implicate enhanced cooling);

6) Explosivity is not only important, but also the amount of SO2 released into the stratosphere (not necessarily ash plume; SO2 particles are sufficiently large such that an effective intercepting of visible light occurs, greatly enhancing reflectivity / scattering);


7) With respect to winter, even if a major eruption occurred, the research diverges as far as the effects. Some research suggests the tropical troposphere (stratosphere) would cool (warm) with a stronger than normal polar night jet induced --> +AO --> warmer winter year 1 for North America/Europe. Winter year 2 would be colder. This is small sample size, however. The winter following 1963 Agung eruption was very cold and snowy with a -NAO/-AO. Again, doesn't prove that the volcano is implicated in that case either. We had other factors supporting blocking.


Bottom line is there are many indeterminate factors to consider, and even if / after it happens, it will be a wait and see game as far as pattern impacts. But it is safe to say that a VEI 5 eruption would yield global cooling for 1 to potentially 3 years, attributed to the eruption and potentially enhanced by La Nina.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/supervolcano/article2.shtml

Here is what would happen, hypothetically, if Yellowstone VEI 8 happened again.

Isotherm wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/supervolcano/article2.shtml

Here is what would happen, hypothetically, if Yellowstone VEI 8 happened again.

Holy smokes (no pun here) Isotherm that woudl be ridiculous - half the world would be gone from its effects. Scary but one day when who knows it will happen.
Great post above that. Thanks for posting and the kudos.
Folks dont realize teh parallel between terrestrial alignments and events and the atmospheric changes or lack thereof to our planet.
Very interesting days and years ahead as we head deep into this solar minimum. New frontier for me personally (and many others I assume here) but not for planet earth at all.

Tom, Mugs, fascinating stuff for sure. Mugs you quoted Tom above as saying:" Low solar --> increased galactic cosmic rays --> interplanetary magnetic field modulation of earthquake frequency --> volcanism. "

Id love to learn more about this. I mean since the frequency of eruptions, esp Trop volcanic eruptions, are so infrequent I cant imagine that most of this data is extrapolated and or anecdotal.

Where can I read some literature on this stuff?

Seismicity continues to run high underneath Agung.

Isotherm wrote:Seismicity continues to run high underneath Agung.

Vanuatu exploded and the other two Volcanoes on the island chain are wanting in on the fun.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/01/vanuatu-volcano-erupts-11000-prepare-to-evacuate.html

Agung really highly active - what is keeping this lid on? The concern is with all this activity when she blows it could be bad rally bad.

The probability of a major Agung eruption is increasing. Phreatic eruptions are now transitioning more magmatic.

Historical analyses of stratovolcanoes indicates that Mt. Agung seems to be following the play-book of prior eruptions. There are four distinct stages as the magma progresses upward w/in the volcanic system -- stage 1: low-frequency tremors; stage 2: significantly increased seismicity, followed by phreatic/steam eruptions; stage 3-4: increased earthquake activity emanating from a source closer to the surface.

The magnitude of eruptions in stage 2 is highly correlated to magma influx and eventual size of the eruption. Thus, it seems plausible to assess this situation as one which features a high likelihood of an eruption (and it could be major). Nothing written in stone of course.


https://www.earthmagazine.org/node/21527



“At first, it seems like every volcano is different, but once you see enough eruptions, certain similarities stand out,” White says. In the eruptions they studied, in stage 1, low-frequency tremors occurred deep beneath the volcano, representing magma intruding into a shallower reservoir. This stage often started weeks to months before an eruption, and would tend to be missed at unmonitored volcanoes. Stage 2 represents the first outward signs that a long-quiet volcano may erupt, including earthquakes up to magnitude 3 and steam-driven phreatic explosions. Most of the volcanoes they studied — up to 97 percent — began stage 2 about two weeks prior to the main eruption."

Wow. It will be amazing to watch it unfold and watch the short and long term effects on the big picture of the global climate.

I'm wondering if weather records are available to compare before and after the Krakatoa Eruption in 1883 (??) to see what kind of effect that eruption had? There must have been massive amounts of material spewed into the atmosphere on that one.I think I read years ago the dust went worldwide.

We have had a pretty eruption in Mexico as well.
Agung is reported to have sent Ash and SO2 4.5 miles into the atmosphere.

http://www.businessinsider.com/bali-volcano-eruption-2017-11

Mount Agung Erupts!
https://weather.com/news/news/2017-11-27-bali-mount-agung-volcano-erupts

I think this could be an emergency situation evolving for those in the area of Mt. Agung. As per the latest data, the largest seismic energy pulse thus far has occurred, and magma is pooling near the top of the dome. This could be a precursor to a major eruption in the coming days (or shorter).


https://twitter.com/id_magma/status/935410110972682241

Isotherm wrote:I think this could be an emergency situation evolving for those in the area of Mt. Agung. As per the latest data, the largest seismic energy pulse thus far has occurred, and magma is pooling near the top of the dome. This could be a precursor to a major eruption in the coming days (or shorter).


https://twitter.com/id_magma/status/935410110972682241

Here is a Live Web cam:  Don't let the image fool you. That's not what it looks like now. Its the middle of the night there now.

Tom,

This along with her two sibling volcanoes have been active as well as volcanoes in Mexico and Italy.
If Campi Flegrei blows then our homeland is in trouble along with Europe. It is showing sign of activity as I posted two months ago here. Not imminent but something to watch for in teh future months to possible few years.
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/campi-flegrei.html

Other Volcanoes in Indonesia that are a concern and starting to show sings of awakening!
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/life-on-the-edge-dozens-reside-on-rim-of-dormant-volcano-oozing-sulphur/news-story/ae9a5ee7d3ee24405e2d12a4a7220830

Joe D'Aleo had an interesting post today on weather Bell. Here is part of it:

Climatologists may disagree on how much the recent global warming is natural or manmade but there is general agreement that volcanism constitutes a wildcard in climate, producing significant global scale cooling for at least a few years following a major eruption. Volcanic activity is constantly ongoing around the globe with a half-dozen or more volcanoes active at any given moment. Most of these are smaller eruptions, however, and their effects are minor, short lived and confined to the lower atmosphere near the volcano. Major eruptions are much rarer. They can eject ash and gases like sulfur dioxide high into the atmosphere -- 80,000 feet or more. Although much of the ash may fall out within 6 months to a year, sulfur dioxide quickly gets converted to sulfate aerosols, which can reside for two or more years in the stable high atmosphere. These then block some of the incoming solar radiation. The net result is a global cooling. An average cooling of 0.2 to 0.5C over a 2 to 3 year period can occur for a major eruption (de Silva, Robock, others) and has been documented by both surface and satellite observations after major eruptions like El Chichon (Mexico in 1982) and Pinatubo (Indonesia in 1991).

It should be noted that Robock (2003) and others have shown that though major volcanic eruptions seem to have their greatest cooling effect in the summer months, the location of the volcano determines whether the winters are colder or warmer over large parts of North America and Eurasia. According to Robock, tropical region volcanoes like El Chichon and Pinatubo actually produce a warming in winter due to a tendency for a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) (below left). In the positive phase of these large scale pressure oscillations, low pressure and cold air is trapped in high latitudes and the resulting more westerly jet stream winds drives milder maritime air into the continents. Robock found high latitude volcanoes like Katmai (Alaska in 1912,) instead favored the negative phase of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations and cold winters (below right). In the negative phase, the jet stream winds buckled and forced cold air south from Canada into the eastern United States and west from Siberia into Europe. Despite the regional differences in winter, globally on an annual basis, volcanic eruptions lead to a net cooling regardless as to the volcano’s latitude.

See this very detailed PDF on the high latitude eruptions, which if I am right are more likely with a quiet sun will follow.

https://weather.com/news/news/2018-01-14-philippine-volcano-eruption-mount-mayon-evacuations-albay