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Seismic Activity - Volcanos

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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:59 pm

Joe D'Aleo had an interesting post today on weather Bell. Here is part of it:

Climatologists may disagree on how much the recent global warming is natural or manmade but there is general agreement that volcanism constitutes a wildcard in climate, producing significant global scale cooling for at least a few years following a major eruption. Volcanic activity is constantly ongoing around the globe with a half-dozen or more volcanoes active at any given moment. Most of these are smaller eruptions, however, and their effects are minor, short lived and confined to the lower atmosphere near the volcano. Major eruptions are much rarer. They can eject ash and gases like sulfur dioxide high into the atmosphere -- 80,000 feet or more. Although much of the ash may fall out within 6 months to a year, sulfur dioxide quickly gets converted to sulfate aerosols, which can reside for two or more years in the stable high atmosphere. These then block some of the incoming solar radiation. The net result is a global cooling. An average cooling of 0.2 to 0.5C over a 2 to 3 year period can occur for a major eruption (de Silva, Robock, others) and has been documented by both surface and satellite observations after major eruptions like El Chichon (Mexico in 1982) and Pinatubo (Indonesia in 1991).

It should be noted that Robock (2003) and others have shown that though major volcanic eruptions seem to have their greatest cooling effect in the summer months, the location of the volcano determines whether the winters are colder or warmer over large parts of North America and Eurasia. According to Robock, tropical region volcanoes like El Chichon and Pinatubo actually produce a warming in winter due to a tendency for a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) (below left). In the positive phase of these large scale pressure oscillations, low pressure and cold air is trapped in high latitudes and the resulting more westerly jet stream winds drives milder maritime air into the continents. Robock found high latitude volcanoes like Katmai (Alaska in 1912,) instead favored the negative phase of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations and cold winters (below right). In the negative phase, the jet stream winds buckled and forced cold air south from Canada into the eastern United States and west from Siberia into Europe. Despite the regional differences in winter, globally on an annual basis, volcanic eruptions lead to a net cooling regardless as to the volcano’s latitude.

See this very detailed PDF on the high latitude eruptions, which if I am right are more likely with a quiet sun will follow.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:21 pm

https://weather.com/news/news/2018-01-14-philippine-volcano-eruption-mount-mayon-evacuations-albay

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:17 pm

Thanks for sharing Mom!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:13 pm

https://news.sky.com/story/mount-sinabung-massive-volcanic-eruption-turned-day-into-night-11257594

could this effect our summer weather?
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Post by frank 638 Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:23 pm

I hope so who wants a hot humid summer

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:03 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:https://news.sky.com/story/mount-sinabung-massive-volcanic-eruption-turned-day-into-night-11257594

could this effect our summer weather?

Mom great info and thanks for posting.
I just last night had dinner with my friend who have been talking about this for the past 4 years now about solar activity, lack thereof and the increased seismic activity. We are heading into a solar minimum or hibernation from the latest research and cycle 24 which we are in, 25 and 26 cycles will add in what is being called the eddy Minimum.
So with that information our seismic activity will increase with bigger and worse EQ and Volcanoes overall during this time frame. It has aready started and we must understand that the sun has profound if nit prolific effects on our planet. Our geophysical make up dictates the sun -earth relationship to a degree we are just understanding.
So the effects of this and other VEI explosions to come will have effects on our sensible weather patterns. To what degree remains are gain to be seen.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:21 am

Thanks mugs for answering....so interesting
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:18 pm

https://weather.com/science/nature/news/2018-04-23-yellowstone-supervolcano-nasa-hotspot-mantle-plume
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Post by amugs Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:28 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:https://weather.com/science/nature/news/2018-04-23-yellowstone-supervolcano-nasa-hotspot-mantle-plume

Not good but no one knows when she'll go boom. If it is the next century I feel sorry for my grandchildren and the younger folks on here cause the NA continent will be no more! Possibly life on this spaceship we call earth! Thanks for posting and again a direct relationship to solar grand minimum LOTS of folks seem to be jumping on.

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