Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[HectorO]

Is anyone else bothered by the media seizing on this term "bomb cyclone" and describing this "bomb cyclone" as an unusual event? We all study weather here, and we all know (or most do) about bombogenesis. And we all know it is a term that dates back at least to the late 1970s early 1980s. And we also all know that a "cyclone" is simply a fancy way of saying, low pressure system or even storm. And we also all know that these coastal "bombs" happen not infrequently in the winter along the East Coast (albeit with varying degrees of strength.
The reason this bothers me is this. I had a couple people at work today asking me, very much concerned about the "bomb cyclone" that was coming, and what that means and how unusual it is.  I feel like this is another attempt by the media to use terminology (and I won't address possible motives but I have a theory on a couple) to scare the public into thinking something -- unusual -- is happening with the weather. Something unprecedented or out of the ordinary. I think it misleads the public and causes them to be confused about what is really happening. Even if this storm is deeper or stronger than a typical coastal storm (i'm not sure it really is) that just makes it a strong storm -- not an unprecedented storm or unique entity.  It reminds me of how a couple years ago the term "polar vortex" became commonplace to discuss winter cold outbreaks over north america. The same winter cold outbreaks that our continent has experienced for 100s of years. They described it like it was some unusual storm of cold air dropping in from Canada.
Maybe I'm over-reacting, but a lot of this rubs me the wrong way. Ok rant over, back to storm tracking.

Before I finished reading the rest of it, I was going to mention the polar vortex name drop from a few years back.

[billg315]

Yeah that was one of the first times I noticed it. And if you do a google search right now for “bomb cyclone” it’s disturbing how many news stories pop up using that term.

[jmanley32]

That post from CT met and Ryan Hannrahan who I went to high school with (total d bag) but if they know thier stuff I am going to bed with no expectation of more than a dusting by morning and a inch or two by end of day....Of course my parents in CT are in the center of the bullseye where they think maybe 2 feet only 70 miles away, whiy did I move here lol

[jmanley32]

I wish I could have a drink but taking antibiotics for bronchitis and I am coughing again despite feeling almost 100% better a day or two ago, only two days to go on meds. Can't mess it up with the booze.

[Scullybutcher]

I can’t believe TWC isn’t live all night

[billg315]

So I’m posting here rather than in the storm thread because the coastal and Long Island guys are having too much fun over there to interrupt. lol. But my quick take this morning is the models that we were doubting were largely right on this. To Frank’s credit he never saw this as an interior NJ storm eve in his final map that upped totals. But clearly the outlier here were the models (NAM and short range) that showed all of NJ and LHV getting 8,9, 10”. The other models consistently showed a big hit for South Jersey, the immediate coast and Long Island with most of central and north jersey coming up on the short end. We kept seeing maps where even as the low center moved west on the models the heavier snow did not. The models always had a decent hit for the coastal areas but we kept noting that even as the models trended west the inland areas didn’t appear to do any better. If you’ve watched the radar since 4 am that is exactly what has happened. The Low has been further west but the heaviest snow largely confined right along the coast and over LI. The models I think, correctly forecast the dry slotting over most of central and north jersey. The heavier bands just aren’t making it inland. So I have to tip my cap to the globals (and Frank) because I think they were closer to correct than we’re giving credit. (I will admit my folly if the heavier bands make it to my area before this winds down this afternoon - but right now I have maybe 1” and I can’t see ending up with more than 3 or 4 here).

[docstox12]

billg, I agree with you.We are just not getting into the real heavy stuff and as time goes on, it gets harder to believe that HRRR model before that showed me getting nearly a foot.Your guess of 3 to 4 inches if this does not get in gear is a good one.Let's see what we wind up with at the end of the day before we acknowledge anybody or any models prediction.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

billg, I agree with you.We are just not getting into the real heavy stuff and as time goes on, it gets harder to believe that HRRR model before that showed me getting nearly a foot.Your guess of 3 to 4 inches if this does not get in gear is a good one.Let's see what we wind up with at the end of the day before we acknowledge anybody or any models prediction.

I was thinking along the same lines but now that we're under the 25 dbz bands it's getting pretty crazy out. The LI'ers under those 30-40 and Jersey shore must be insane.

[docstox12]

billg, I agree with you.We are just not getting into the real heavy stuff and as time goes on, it gets harder to believe that HRRR model before that showed me getting nearly a foot.Your guess of 3 to 4 inches if this does not get in gear is a good one.Let's see what we wind up with at the end of the day before we acknowledge anybody or any models prediction.

I was thinking along the same lines but now that we're under the 25 dbz bands it's getting pretty crazy out. The LI'ers under those 30-40 and Jersey shore must be insane.

CP, that HRRR is still in play.Wife just got back from Shop Rite.Looks like 2 inches or so right now.

[Frank_Wx]

So I’m posting here rather than in the storm thread because the coastal and Long Island guys are having too much fun over there to interrupt. lol. But my quick take this morning is the models that we were doubting were largely right on this. To Frank’s credit he never saw this as an interior NJ storm eve in his final map that upped totals. But clearly the outlier here were the models (NAM and short range) that showed all of NJ and LHV getting 8,9, 10”. The other models consistently showed a big hit for South Jersey, the immediate coast and Long Island with most of central and north jersey coming up on the short end. We kept seeing maps where even as the low center moved west on the models the heavier snow did not. The models always had a decent hit for the coastal areas but we kept noting that even as the models trended west the inland areas didn’t appear to do any better. If you’ve watched the radar since 4 am that is exactly what has happened. The Low has been further west but the heaviest snow largely confined right along the coast and over LI. The models I think, correctly forecast the dry slotting over most of central and north jersey. The heavier bands just aren’t making it inland. So I have to tip my cap to the globals (and Frank) because I think they were closer to correct than we’re giving credit. (I will admit my folly if the heavier bands make it to my area before this winds down this afternoon - but right now I have maybe 1” and I can’t see ending up with more than 3 or 4 here).

Thanks Bill, only thing I would say is I feel the globals were pretty putrid. Some of them did not show any snow for parts of central and western NJ. The meso models may have overdone it a bit but that is why I try to lean less on models when formulating my snow maps. At this point of my life a lot of my snow maps are based off instinct / experience with models as the primary resource, to be honest.

3 to 6 is pretty good. I remember getting excited about those storms.

[Guest]

NAM IS NEW KING. PERIOD!

[billg315]

So I’m posting here rather than in the storm thread because the coastal and Long Island guys are having too much fun over there to interrupt. lol. But my quick take this morning is the models that we were doubting were largely right on this. To Frank’s credit he never saw this as an interior NJ storm eve in his final map that upped totals. But clearly the outlier here were the models (NAM and short range) that showed all of NJ and LHV getting 8,9, 10”. The other models consistently showed a big hit for South Jersey, the immediate coast and Long Island with most of central and north jersey coming up on the short end. We kept seeing maps where even as the low center moved west on the models the heavier snow did not. The models always had a decent hit for the coastal areas but we kept noting that even as the models trended west the inland areas didn’t appear to do any better. If you’ve watched the radar since 4 am that is exactly what has happened. The Low has been further west but the heaviest snow largely confined right along the coast and over LI. The models I think, correctly forecast the dry slotting over most of central and north jersey. The heavier bands just aren’t making it inland. So I have to tip my cap to the globals (and Frank) because I think they were closer to correct than we’re giving credit. (I will admit my folly if the heavier bands make it to my area before this winds down this afternoon - but right now I have maybe 1” and I can’t see ending up with more than 3 or 4 here).

Thanks Bill, only thing I would say is I feel the globals were pretty putrid. Some of them did not show any snow for parts of central and western NJ. The meso models may have overdone it a bit but that is why I try to lean less on models when formulating my snow maps. At this point of my life a lot of my snow maps are based off instinct / experience with models as the primary resource, to be honest.

3 to 6 is pretty good. I remember getting excited about those storms.

Yeah some models did underdo it, but I guess just in the more general sense that this was a coastal event more than an interior they seemed to sniff out.
I agree with you 100%. I always viewed a 3-6” storm as a good hit. Everyone wants a Godzilla but they are hard to come by. Give me a 3-6 and I’m happy. I think your 3-6 call for this area is spot on. I’m about 2” now so I think I’ll easily get over 3 maybe up to 5? Heck maybe 6 if I could get just one of those heavy bands.

[billg315]

NAM IS NEW KING. PERIOD!

Lol. For YOU! It had me getting almost a foot on that one run yesterday. Not close in these parts.

[billg315]

I forget whether it was CP or Doc or both who pointed out a couple days ago when it was a “1-3” event for almost the whole area that we’re better off starting there and working up than starting with the 30” maps that never seem to pan out. Proven true yet again. If nothing else it at least starts expectations in a realistic place so a 6” snowfall is considered a good thing - as it should be.

[RJB8525]

NAM IS NEW KING. PERIOD!

ALL HAIL KING NAM.

EURO goes to the pit of misery, dilly dilly!

[HectorO]

https://www.facebook.com/VicComedy/videos/902962759879956/ Hope you guys can see this. It's hilarious

[billg315]

lol. NO dilly dilly for the NAM sorry! On Tuesday's 12z it had me with about 2" and about 8 or 9" at the shore. Then the 18z went east and showed even lesser amounts north and west. Then on Wednesday's 6z it had me with 12" and 20" with ratios. I ended up with about 5.5". A model that in a period of 24 hours went from grossly underestimating to grossly overestimating gets no pats on the back from me. It was close to accurate for the coast but to a certain extent that was never in question. Everyone knew the coast was getting plastered and that was pretty consistent, it was just a matter of how much. The real question was how far west would the precipitation get and in that regard the NAM was as all over the place as any other model. In the end if you took all the models as a whole, and didn't read them literally to the exact amount or the exact cutoff, they all indicated that the further east you were you were likely to get a big snow and the further west you were the closer you would be to a cutoff. In that regard, while on specifics none of them was particularly good, the general idea wasn't all wrong.

[nutleyblizzard]

Now that this powerful storm is winding down, a bit of perspective. When this storm first showed up on models 7 days ago, we knew there was plenty of potential yet the pattern was also delicate. Think about it, we had no blocking to work with and we still ended up with a triple phased event; the ultimate thread the needle. This could of easily been a small or non event. The past week was an exhausting one for me. I more or less threw in the towel twice, only to see the models bring it back west. I'm a believer that snow breeds snow. This could very well be one of those winters where we cash in on the "white gold" even when the pattern may say otherwise.

[nutleyblizzard]

NAM IS NEW KING. PERIOD!

ALL HAIL KING NAM.

EURO goes to the pit of misery, dilly dilly!

Yep. Nam nailed this storm alright. Remember the Not A Model jokes, we must never make fun of this model again. I now have renewed respect for it.

[billg315]

Grrrr. I give up. Lol.

[weatherwatchermom]

Funny Guy...bomb cyclone

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgqY-ojvNUQ

[jmanley32]

CMC next 10 days snowfall, we are not done before the thaw. I for one really need it not to snow the 13-15th as I will be doing a lot of driving that weekend, everytime I try to go on a trip so far since October something has gotten in the way.

[jmanley32]

Guys I think you will love some Vic anger about these terms recently used. Fair warning a few not child friendly words. hilarious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZc6wUcnHpA

[weatherwatchermom]

Guys I think you will love some Vic anger about these terms recently used. Fair warning a few not child friendly words. hilarious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZc6wUcnHpA

ha ha did you see my post 2 above same guy...

[HectorO]

Funny Guy...bomb cyclone

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgqY-ojvNUQ

Literally posted this before everyone else and now there's like 5 posts of him lol.

[amugs]

Today was brutal. Had my mother in laws funeral and thank god the priest did the express service as we shivered in the wind all bundled up.

We had to postpone the funeral from Thursday to today for obvious reasons.

[skinsfan1177]

Today was brutal. Had my mother in laws funeral and thank god the priest did the express service as we shivered in the wind all bundled up.

We had to postpone the funeral from Thursday to today for obvious reasons.

Sorry for your loss mugs