Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[HectorO]

My 10 year old daughter heard about Taylor's passing and made an observation that I thought was insightful for her age. It comes down to sadness that things happen and why do they happen.  Smart girl.  And now, onto weather banter.

A friend of mine three hours away observed and remarked on what I had noticed this summer. At the bird feeder, birds were eating to beat the band. I put out so much seed, I was shocked. This was way different from other years. And then came the cold weather.  So I am beginning to think I am getting screwy, superstitious, adding 2+2 and getting 5.  Whatever the reality, this winter I have seen birds that I usually do not see at the feeder.  Boatloads of cardinals and bluebirds are examples. If I saw a bluebird or two a season, that was it. Now I see  four to six and surprisingly, bluebirds and cardinals are on the feeders together. When the blue jays are there, they dominate. Otherwise they are sharing the same feeders at the same time.  Surprising to me to see finches and cardinals together on the perches. Even a palliated woodpecker is showing up with regularity. I thought they only ate insects.  My uninformed position: birds sensed cold was coming and bulked up.  They have kept coming, more than usual, and my restaurant has caught on among the bird set.  And the cold is returning.  

Birds, like any creature adapt to different temperatures. If you took a drive down Edgewater New Jersey you would see monk parakeets flying around. No one still knows how they got here. Some people say a truck delivery lost a few, other say some escaped from local store. But you can see their enormous nests that they build next to utility poles, and if you look over head you'll see tropical birds flying around in New Jersey in the middle of winter.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Next Saturdays fantasy map. And a fantasy it will most likely stay. As always it is fun to dream.

[sroc4]

Here it is in more detail

[dkodgis]

CP, I am a dreamer!

[jmanley32]

00z runs follw suite, CMC a bit less but still a godzilla.

[amugs]

Frank Starting two threads this mornings = WOW!!!!!!!!!

[Guest]

I'm about a week away from writing this winter off for my area. The precip numbers look great, but it's been almost all rain. Even with the one decent (5.5") snowfall, I don't think we've topped a foot here yet. It's disheartening.

[Grselig]

I'm about a week away from writing this winter off for my area. The precip numbers look great, but it's been almost all rain. Even with the one decent (5.5") snowfall, I don't think we've topped a foot here yet. It's disheartening.

Yeah, I agree. Seems like every decent snow is on the coast. I've got about 8 inches this year. Hopefully things change. Just one nice storm is all I ask for.

[Math23x7]

The 12Z EURO wasn't thrilled with either system featured in Frank's two threads. It shows mainly rain from them.

[rb924119]

I'm about a week away from writing this winter off for my area. The precip numbers look great, but it's been almost all rain. Even with the one decent (5.5") snowfall, I don't think we've topped a foot here yet. It's disheartening.

Don't take the plunge, Aresian!!! BACK AWAY FROM THE LEDGE. I REPEAT: BACK AWAY FROM THE LEDGE. We are about to enter what I think will be our collectively most auspicious period which will then last right through March. Trust the process, my friend, and have faith

[Guest]

I don’t know rb. I think Frank May have to change the scroll and definitely the SCI.

[HectorO]

I'm about a week away from writing this winter off for my area. The precip numbers look great, but it's been almost all rain. Even with the one decent (5.5") snowfall, I don't think we've topped a foot here yet. It's disheartening.

I was thinking the same, especially when looking at the forecast, there doesn't seem to be any long sustained cold snap like we had earlier in January. Temps look to be hovering around normal to even above normal. This is a short month as it is and I don't see March having a big cold snap if February bombs out. Old man winter gave it his all in December and then again in Late December into early March. He did too much too soon lol, and even with the cold snap we had there was no moisture really.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I'm about a week away from writing this winter off for my area. The precip numbers look great, but it's been almost all rain. Even with the one decent (5.5") snowfall, I don't think we've topped a foot here yet. It's disheartening.

I was thinking the same, especially when looking at the forecast, there doesn't seem to be any long sustained cold snap like we had earlier in January. Temps look to be hovering around normal to even above normal. This is a short month as it is and I don't see March having a big cold snap if February bombs out. Old man winter gave it his all in December and then again in Late December into early March. He did too much too soon lol, and even with the cold snap we had there was no moisture really.

Mike the Warmacist wins.

Maybe it's time to recognize him as a great prophet and not shun him as if he were a leper.

As REM sang,

It's the end of the winter as we know it,  
It's the end of the winter as we know it
It's the end of the winter as we know it
and I feel fine.

https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-adk-adk_sbnt&hsimp=yhs-adk_sbnt&hspart=adk&p=rem+its+the+end+of+the+world#id=1&vid=0b7af7a610d68280efd76ba54286c38a&action=click

[algae888]

I'm about a week away from writing this winter off for my area. The precip numbers look great, but it's been almost all rain. Even with the one decent (5.5") snowfall, I don't think we've topped a foot here yet. It's disheartening.

I was thinking the same, especially when looking at the forecast, there doesn't seem to be any long sustained cold snap like we had earlier in January. Temps look to be hovering around normal to even above normal. This is a short month as it is and I don't see March having a big cold snap if February bombs out. Old man winter gave it his all in December and then again in Late December into early March. He did too much too soon lol, and even with the cold snap we had there was no moisture really.

Mike the Warmacist wins.

Maybe it's time to recognize him as a great prophet and not shun him as if he were a leper.

As REM sang,

It's the end of the winter as we know it,  
It's the end of the winter as we know it
It's the end of the winter as we know it
and I feel fine.

Well CP maybe for the Inland areas it hasn't been quite the winter yet but I think you guys are going to score big in the next several weeks. This has been a very good winter for me I'm five inches below season Norm.with six weeks left I'm sure I'll see more snow they may be snow to rain scenarios but definitely will see more snow still have 6 solid weeks left. For most of this forum this is anything but a subpar winter. And I should also add throw in the Epic 3 week cold snap which rivaled all others and the early start to Winter really have very little complaining to do but I guess you can't please everybody

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I'm about a week away from writing this winter off for my area. The precip numbers look great, but it's been almost all rain. Even with the one decent (5.5") snowfall, I don't think we've topped a foot here yet. It's disheartening.

I was thinking the same, especially when looking at the forecast, there doesn't seem to be any long sustained cold snap like we had earlier in January. Temps look to be hovering around normal to even above normal. This is a short month as it is and I don't see March having a big cold snap if February bombs out. Old man winter gave it his all in December and then again in Late December into early March. He did too much too soon lol, and even with the cold snap we had there was no moisture really.

Mike the Warmacist wins.

Maybe it's time to recognize him as a great prophet and not shun him as if he were a leper.

As REM sang,

It's the end of the winter as we know it,  
It's the end of the winter as we know it
It's the end of the winter as we know it
and I feel fine.

Well CP maybe for the Inland areas it hasn't been quite the winter yet but I think you guys are going to score big in the next several weeks. This has been a very good winter for me I'm five inches below season Norm.with six weeks left I'm sure I'll see more snow they may be snow to rain scenarios but definitely will see more snow still have 6 solid weeks left. For most of this forum this is anything but a subpar winter. And I should also add throw in the Epic 3 week cold snap which rivaled all others and the early start to Winter really have very little complaining to do but I guess you can't please everybody

Needed to vent for a minute Al that's what the banter thread is all about. This winter has been ok so far temperatures about a degree or two below normal but with a thaw that lasted way to long in my book. February and March will make or break this winters grade.

[docstox12]

CP, Al has a great point! March is OUR month in the HV , just like November when the Shore and LI crew gets the shaft.Remember the March blizzard last year and those Novembers we had 8 or 9 inches around Thanksgiving and they got very little.Even though we are behind right now , we DID have a White Christmas last year , not a measly "coating" an actual few inches of snow!!! Look at your snow stats in your profile, 65 plus inches there.We alway do very well.I feel sorry for Mugsy and Janet and where I used to live.They are too far west for the big shore and LI snows and they are too far south and lower in elevation to cash in like we do.

End of the WINTER....... NEVER!! We shall NEVER surrender!!! An excerpt from one of my top ten men who ever lived!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WICUrFbb3b0

[crippo84]

In all honesty (and ignorance lol) if you're looking for snow do you want a sustained cold snap such as the one we had in late December / early January?  Large surges of arctic air like that tend to suppress major storm threats. I understand smaller events can happen and guarantee all snow (and high ratio at that), but if we want a big storm to occur we want the cold air at least to our north which can be drawn upon from a strong storm riding up the coast.  Otherwise, as we've seen, we're looking at bitter cold and dry conditions with arctic cold snaps.  Hovering around normal seems ideal to me for big snow potential...

[amugs]

@SYO saying he is being pessimistic for FEB - really he is being a pessimist?? LOL
@RAY I trust your genius meteorological skills here and will be leaning on cause I am having hard time making heads of this tails signal with teh convection off the freakin charts with the MJO out in phase 6 and the LOW AAM at this point.
What seemed to be bookened storms for this weekend have become non events in my book. Not looking at OP's but 500mb maps and ens guidance.

DEEP THUNDER

[HectorO]

In all honesty (and ignorance lol) if you're looking for snow do you want a sustained cold snap such as the one we had in late December / early January?  Large surges of arctic air like that tend to suppress major storm threats. I understand smaller events can happen and guarantee all snow (and high ratio at that), but if we want a big storm to occur we want the cold air at least to our north which can be drawn upon from a strong storm riding up the coast.  Otherwise, as we've seen, we're looking at bitter cold and dry conditions with arctic cold snaps.  Hovering around normal seems ideal to me for big snow potential...

True, but I rather have a constant few inches pile up per storm with constant events, than one big storm of 18 inches that becomes 8-10 inches over the next 24 hours because the temp shoots back up to 50.

[jmanley32]

Im only interested in intense storms nuissance storms are not at all interesting to me. But that's me. And it appears these chances are or already have dwindled for the year.

[docstox12]

Im only interested in intense storms nuissance storms are not at all interesting to me. But that's me. And it appears these chances are or already have dwindled for the year.

Jman, it's a funny thing you mentioned this.Before I joined the Channel 7 Board years ago, I would not even pay attention to any predicted storm less than 12 inches.By then I had seen hundreds of small storms under 12 inches.Now that I am on the board, ANY snow is interesting because of the observations coming in over our wide NJ Strong area.Of course, situations like the Boxing Day Blizzard was amazing on the board and I hope we can get an area wide one this winter over 18 inches.(Sorry to keep repeating that,LOL).

[Guest]

You know what people.  The more I check in here, the more I post, the more I learn, the more I realize one thing and those of you who have seen my posts for 5 years now have heard this before.........the old Italians I know who always yell at me to stop watching and talking about the weather know best.  The6 say wake up in the morning, look outside and you’ll know the weather. And you know what they are right.  The blizzard this year I got 15” I was forecast a few hours before for 4-6”.  The other day 1-2” and we got 4”. Scott got 8”.  Today 2-3” and treacherous travel and I got nothing.  All this forecasting and posting is useless.  I’ll continue to do it because i am an idiot, but it all means nothing. No offense meant to anyone.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Orange County Othelia, our local ground hog, saw her shadow today and succumbed to a heart ailment about an hour ago.

According to folklore up here, if the ground hog dies the same day as seeing her shadow there will be 10 more weeks of an apocalyptic like winter. Massive blizzards and cold through mid April.

Lets hope the old legend is true, it's the first time it will be tested.

[sroc4]

Orange Countys ground hog Othelia, saw her shadow today and succumbed to a heart ailment about an hour ago.

According to folklore up here, if the ground hog dies the same day as seeing her shadow there will be 10 more weeks of an apocalyptic like winter. Massive blizzards and cold through mid April.

Lets hope the old legend is true, it's the first time it will be tested.

Is that blizzard centered around Orange County?  Because this may spell mixing/rain issues on the coast

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Orange Countys ground hog Othelia, saw her shadow today and succumbed to a heart ailment about an hour ago.

According to folklore up here, if the ground hog dies the same day as seeing her shadow there will be 10 more weeks of an apocalyptic like winter. Massive blizzards and cold through mid April.

Lets hope the old legend is true, it's the first time it will be tested.

Is that blizzard centered around Orange County?  Because this may spell mixing/rain issues on the coast

The same folklore states all of LI will join in the fun except an area centered around Syosett which I believe went by another name at the time (this legend dates from the mid 1700's). Amazing that they were that specific.

[Guest]

Orange Countys ground hog Othelia, saw her shadow today and succumbed to a heart ailment about an hour ago.

According to folklore up here, if the ground hog dies the same day as seeing her shadow there will be 10 more weeks of an apocalyptic like winter. Massive blizzards and cold through mid April.

Lets hope the old legend is true, it's the first time it will be tested.

Is that blizzard centered around Orange County?  Because this may spell mixing/rain issues on the coast

The same folklore states all of LI will join in the fun except an area centered around Syosett which I believe went by another name at the time (this legend dates from the mid 1700's). Amazing that they were that specific.

As a human being in 2018 in the USA I feel threatened. You have triggered me and violated my weather safe space. I’m going to find some other Syosset residents and we are going to march on Washington in protest. Maybe even riot. This is unacceptable. I’d like to notify an administrator about this verbal assault. Anyone know one?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Orange Countys ground hog Othelia, saw her shadow today and succumbed to a heart ailment about an hour ago.

According to folklore up here, if the ground hog dies the same day as seeing her shadow there will be 10 more weeks of an apocalyptic like winter. Massive blizzards and cold through mid April.

Lets hope the old legend is true, it's the first time it will be tested.

Is that blizzard centered around Orange County?  Because this may spell mixing/rain issues on the coast

The same folklore states all of LI will join in the fun except an area centered around Syosett which I believe went by another name at the time (this legend dates from the mid 1700's). Amazing that they were that specific.

As a human being in 2018 in the USA I feel threatened.  You have triggered me and violated my weather safe space.  I’m going to find some other Syosset residents and we are going to march on Washington in protest.  Maybe even riot.  This is unacceptable.  I’d like to notify an administrator about this verbal assault.  Anyone know one?

I never mentioned anyone by name, I just referenced old folklore from the legend of Orange County Ophelia. Docs lived up here long enough, I'm sure he's heard the tale. Let's all just hope it's true.

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