Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

[Math23x7]

So the GFS, CMC, and ECMWF at 0Z showed Godzilla snows for much of the region for late next weekend. But as has been shown many times in the past, you don't necessarily want to be in the big snow a week out. While not impossible, I wouldn't jump on board...yet.

[sroc4]

As this threat gets closer a new thread will be made. No need to jinx it by prematurely making a thread for a potential that goes poof on the models. We are still 6 or so days out. I agree with Mikey on this one, although this is def something to watch.

[RJB8525]

Amy Freeze had Rain to Snow on Friday and just said it could be interesting

[skinsfan1177]

Feb 2-3 looks nice hopefully it holds euro was a nice hit

[skinsfan1177]

Euro looks decent

[sroc4]

Euro looks decent

EPS

[Guest]

Not gonna lie Scott, I would like to see those EPS members a bit more s and e. I think over half of them are too close for us on the coast with a marginally cold airmass in place.

[docstox12]

Not gonna lie Scott, I would like to see those EPS members a bit more s and e.  I think over half of them are too close for us on the coast with a marginally cold airmass in place.  

Sorry, Jimmy, I'm pulling for a more N and W trend!NWS has me all snow now, there was a rain/snow mix at the beginning.60% chance now at night.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Not gonna lie Scott, I would like to see those EPS members a bit more s and e.  I think over half of them are too close for us on the coast with a marginally cold airmass in place.  

Sorry, Jimmy, I'm pulling for a more N and W trend!NWS has me all snow now, there was a rain/snow mix at the beginning.60% chance now at night.

Not surprisingly I couldn't agree more Doc, tuck that sucker inside the BM.

[sroc4]

Not gonna lie Scott, I would like to see those EPS members a bit more s and e.  I think over half of them are too close for us on the coast with a marginally cold airmass in place.  

With the continued evolution of the cold suppressing the warmth leading into this time frame this is exactly where we want this to be 5-6days out in the means.  That said it is entirely possible we start as rain or mix along the coast, but change over to snow.  In this type for set up and pattern, -EPO driving arctic air S&E, I expect the trends over time to continue to bring the arctic boundary further south at least a little.  I actually like where the LP placement is on the euro op right now.  There is a huge difference with this set up than say the one for tomorrow into Tuesday even though there are some similarities.  

Similar in a sense that the rain and warmth we are experiencing today is via a frontal boundary pushing S&E through the area followed by a secondary wave of LP developing along the frontal boundary associated with northern stream energy rounding the incoming trough.  A similar evolution in a general sense for the 2nd 3rd set up in that a LP will develop along a stalled frontal boundary that passes S&E of our region Wed Thursday this week; however there is a huge difference in that the air masses for which the wave of LP developing has to work with.  

The air mass to our north for Monday night to Tuesday in reality is modified Pac air.  






However as we head into Feb a spike in the ridging just off the WC of the CONUS and WC of Canada in response to a trough developing S off the Aleutian Islands is driving a polar air mass mixed with arctic origins S&E such that after the front passes the air mass sitting to our north will be much colder and much denser and hence will have an easier time beating back the warmer air.





A very similar type set up can go back to March 2013/14 when we had a strong -EPO driving one cold Canadian HP after another S&E through Canada into the Central plains and NE CONUS with weak waves of LP over performing along the EC due to enhancement from a very tight thermal gradient, aka baroclinic zone, enhancing lift.  Take a look at the temp anomalies the surface LP has to work with for the Mon/Tues system  vs the 2nd 3rd system.  Clearly the air masses will be different.






Nothing is set in stone just yet. areas just off the coast stand to do the best with this system but the coastal plain is Definitely still in the game for this one.

[sroc4]

Don't be shocked to see the suppressed soln too in the upcoming runs if the cold pushes too hard.

[frank 638]

TWC has posted their first snow map for Friday system of course things can change. For Friday storm they have everyone for 3 to 5 in of snow let's hope the snow totals will go higher after that we will see very cold air mass starting Saturday or Sunday

[skinsfan1177]

Don't be shocked to see the suppressed soln too in the upcoming runs if the cold pushes too hard.  

Isn't the feature to watch as well is the WAR which has been strong all season

[aiannone]

[dkodgis]

NWS has "snow likely" for me this coming Friday.

That's what I'm talkin' 'bout.

[jmanley32]

this winter is boring i gotta say, i usually dont feel this way but whens spring?

[sroc4]

this winter is boring i gotta say,  i usually dont feel this way but whens spring?

Banter Jman. We aren't even into the period we had been talking about as being more consistently cold and more favorable for snow chances yet, Feb5th-10th and beyond, and yet we have 3 snow chances in front of us. Tonight into tomorrow, Friday, and next Sunday night into Monday. We had the Jan Thaw which was anticipated and ended up much cooler overall than was talked about a couple of weeks ago. The temp anomalies for the month overall will still end up BN in all likely hood. Here are the first two weeks, past two weeks and overall for the month.







Anything we get before Feb5th I personally am considering a bonus. It may not be the sexiest of systems to track in the immediate future but at least its something.

[Guest]

Great write up and explanation Scott. I feel better now. FWIW the NWS has really backed off on their confidence and snow percentages for the 2nd 3rd system overnight!

[Frank_Wx]

Not much amplification in the trough and we're under a progressive flow for anything significant to develop this Friday, in my opinion. Either the low pressure develops too far off the coast, or it turns out to be a frontal passage. A couple of days ago I expressed the pattern is still too "young" to bring us a glorified snowstorm. February 6th-15th is the timeframe I believe holds the best potential.

[sroc4]

Yeah the National Weather Service tends to wax and wane with the model consensus. But obviously model consensus 7 to 10 days out 3 to 5 days out and under 48 hours has fluctuated quite a bit. I would say given the nature of the pattern and the progressive flow a weak system and/or much ado about nothing is certainly possible. I do think that when all is said and done we see at least a mild to moderate event out of this. We meaning our coverage area. The details of who sees what is obviously still fuzzy. We’ll see how the week goes.

[Guest]

Ok boys. It’s been awhile since the ground was white. Make it happen please!

[sroc4]

Not much amplification in the trough and we're under a progressive flow for anything significant to develop this Friday, in my opinion. Either the low pressure develops too far off the coast, or it turns out to be a frontal passage. A couple of days ago I expressed the pattern is still too "young" to bring us a glorified snowstorm. February 6th-15th is the timeframe I believe holds the best potential.

Agreed Frank regarding the progressive flow. Certainly don’t expect a Godzilla. But the set up is very reminiscent of March 2013/14 where all it takes is a weak low pressure and a favorably positioned frontal boundary to develop south of Long Island to start the warm air advection. The air  mass to the north is extremely cold and we still have warm air to our south and east so I think if this happens there will be baroclinically enhanced vertical motion, especially along the coast, and enhance precept totals that usually don’t become evident until the Hi-Rez models take over. Also with northern stream energy historically under model this season before it makes it on shore it won’t take much additional digging into the trough To develop the low pressure along the frontal boundary and enhance the warm air advection and become a nice moderate event. As of now or I should say overnight models have the main trough pretty broad based with the energy associated with it pretty strung out. We shall see.

[Frank_Wx]

Ok boys.  It’s been awhile since the ground was white.  Make it happen please!

[jmanley32]

this winter is boring i gotta say,  i usually dont feel this way but whens spring?

Banter Jman. We aren't even into the period we had been talking about as being more consistently cold and more favorable for snow chances yet, Feb5th-10th and beyond, and yet we have 3 snow chances in front of us.  Tonight into tomorrow, Friday, and next Sunday night into Monday.  We had the Jan Thaw which was anticipated and ended up much cooler overall than was talked about a couple of weeks ago.  The temp anomalies for the month overall will still end up BN in all likely hood.  Here are the first two weeks, past two weeks and overall for the month.







Anything we get before Feb5th I personally am considering a bonus.   It may not be the sexiest of systems to track in the immediate future but at least its something.  

I know this is banter but I figured wasn't a big deal, look at all the crazy stuff that was banter posted in this and the jan thread over the past month, flame throwers mike the warmist come on and you call me out? I'll keep it in banter but just saying. Theres been plenty of banter outside of banter.

[amugs]

From Earthlight JH
It's more important to utilize ensembles right now to look at overall threat periods and try to figure out how things are going to evolve. We are in a really good spot in that regard...all ensembles are showing very favorable evolutions and there are multiple waves that will have the potential to bring wintry weather.

Look at he PAC - THIS IS WHERE IT LIES FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!!!!!!!!!


See teh wave breaks - the roller coaster esque flow - this will pump the EPO and give us another poleward extension. This buckle in teh JET is important for our weather downstream from this. It will allow for a PNA to spike as well.

Look at this map:




You see the MASSIVE EPO but look a the North Atlantic with that huge height rise (orangy colors) - that is our WAr or WEstern Atlantic Ridge that will help push/guide teh storms towards the coast and slow things down a bit. Not a true - NAO but a pseudo type block.

See that codl core over Central Canada - this is a type pattern ala 2015. WE will have many northern vorts, sw (short Waves) whatever yuo want to call them rotate around the base of this PV - this is why Earthlight and others are excited about teh timeframe coming up as Frank mentioned. have some patience and once it gets set it is game on in a possibly BIGGIE way (secs/mecs storms).

Okay I really like a moderate type event with tsi set - the "horse shoe" locking in teh trough - WOW Sunday night into Monday lets do this for the American people who want to sleep in after teh Super bowl here in the NE


Lastly MJO going into phase 8 - by my experience a phase 7 MJO is not all that warm as the plots call for on the East coast but more transitional. We head to 8 then hopefully around teh horn to 3 for march - teh weenie in me!!!

[amugs]

End of teh week - bookend storms possibly!





Monday close

[Snow88]

GFS has a coastal snowstorm for Monday also

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