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Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

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Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th Empty Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:43 pm

The 12z EPS run has me excited enough to start a thread on this potential event. Nothing is a given at this time but we've been trending in the right direction all weekend. I stated previously we need to keep the west trend alive and not see any regression. We're close enough in time now that we can begin taking this seriously especially for NYC on east. I am characterizing this as Mothrazilla but good potential for Godzilla if it all comes together. See link in my signature to understand what these names mean.

Here are qpf outputs for select cities on the latest EPS:

1 Montauk

75 Islip

.6 N/S boarder

.5 LGA

.4 EWR

The keys:

1. Western ridge
2. Southern s/w (short wave) energy
3. Northern s/w energy
4. Confluence over NE
5. PV location (need separation or H5 to close off to allow the pivot back west)

We'll see what happens! Have a great New Years!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:45 pm

One of the EPS members are fun to look at Very Happy

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th DSZidO4XkAAqQ2u.thumb.jpg.8839db8b67345a1be6fd4bce642c43f9

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:47 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:One of the EPS members are fun to look at Very Happy

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th DSZidO4XkAAqQ2u.thumb.jpg.8839db8b67345a1be6fd4bce642c43f9
Frank if you cn make this happen we get buried and I get my crazy winds and I will take you for drinks and apps lol

Is anything about a godzilla possible? I mean that eps indie has be a roidzilla at least, not being greedy just wondering what you think the ceiling is atm, i know alot can change.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by frank 638 Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:48 pm

Looking good Frank and happy New year

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Post by billg315 Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:51 pm

I don’t know where this will end up, but if we have an amped ridge out west, a deep trough in the east, cold air locked in place and a powerful Low off the east coast and we don’t get at least a 4-8” storm where I’m located I’ll be pretty disappointed. Lol. I like the overall look. Let’s get the details lined up and have a fun 72 hours.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:53 pm

Frank I had weatherbell but where do you get big images of the indies there, I only ever saw the small panel. How many indies are like that or close to that?
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Post by hyde345 Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:56 pm

Has anybody posted Euro 12z snow maps?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:02 pm

Srefs are no good but they haven't been that good
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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:05 pm

WOW! LOLPotential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th 26055510
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:09 pm

Nam looks good
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:09 pm

@aiannone wrote:WOW! LOLPotential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th 26055510
Control is taking control!! If by some shot in the dark this gets really close and is that strong, I can;t even imagine, last time I saw that kinda output was Sandy.  NOT SAYING THIS IS SANDY, just saying I have never seen a winter storm with even ensemble members like that.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:16 pm

MOG!!! Any more shifts west and we in big trouble, forget the snow! That will be least of the problems.  The snow will be the fun part. Yes I know these are overdone by Euro usuallybut the span of the field of the wind is insane, no laughing matter if this comes right up coast.

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th Dszbxm10


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:17 pm

IMO this still has Godzilla potential all over it. Esp for eastern coverage areas

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:18 pm

Can snow maps be posted here now? And if so anyone have the 12z Euro?
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:19 pm

@sroc4 wrote:IMO this still has Godzilla potential all over it. Esp for eastern coverage areas
Slight possibility a roidzilla NYC on east?
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:23 pm

Ryan Maue on twitter: Big picture: Massive and powerful "bomb" Nor'easter forms off East Coast Thursday. Pressure drops 50 mb / 24 hours making it a "double" or > 2 Bergerons. Hurricane force winds.
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Post by mikeypizano Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:24 pm

PLEASE COME WEST!!!!
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:25 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:PLEASE COME WEST!!!!
slowly but surely so far mike, do not lose hope.
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Post by jimv45 Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:28 pm

It will mike have a feeling everybody will be happy

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Post by frank 638 Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:30 pm

My family thinks I am nuts for checking my phone because I am getting very excited right now we are having over told people my house for New Year's. Anyway I am hoping this baby comes more West to give everyone a great big blizzard for everyone not just for Long Island and Coastal jersey and New England this will be a great year to start up 2018 would it big blizzard come on baby come on West

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:31 pm

southern stream is slower again on the 18z Nam. Less spacing between the southern and northern stream.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:33 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:southern stream is slower again on the 18z Nam. Less spacing between the southern and northern stream.
Is the Nam as powerful as the Euro, cuz earlier you guys said it could show a right up the coast senario, if the intensity matches its go get downright serious.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:43 pm

ok weird LP center shifted way east by western precip shield shifted west, it looks like theres a bunch of tiny LP in there too. It looks like NAM is having trouble on which center to focus on, am i right?  It also maybe is chasing the eastern side?

Okay no, the 32km nam is messed up the 12km shows it much further west giggity : )
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:46 pm

Ominous

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th 5a494c802f9ee

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:47 pm

Looks like at hr 84 its trying chase that little LP to the east OTS? am I wrong?
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