Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

The 12z EPS run has me excited enough to start a thread on this potential event. Nothing is a given at this time but we've been trending in the right direction all weekend. I stated previously we need to keep the west trend alive and not see any regression. We're close enough in time now that we can begin taking this seriously especially for NYC on east. I am characterizing this as Mothrazilla but good potential for Godzilla if it all comes together. See link in my signature to understand what these names mean.

Here are qpf outputs for select cities on the latest EPS:

1 Montauk

75 Islip

.6 N/S boarder

.5 LGA

.4 EWR

The keys:

1. Western ridge
2. Southern s/w (short wave) energy
3. Northern s/w energy
4. Confluence over NE
5. PV location (need separation or H5 to close off to allow the pivot back west)

We'll see what happens! Have a great New Years!!

One of the EPS members are fun to look at

Frank_Wx wrote:One of the EPS members are fun to look at

Frank if you cn make this happen we get buried and I get my crazy winds and I will take you for drinks and apps lol

Is anything about a godzilla possible? I mean that eps indie has be a roidzilla at least, not being greedy just wondering what you think the ceiling is atm, i know alot can change.

I don’t know where this will end up, but if we have an amped ridge out west, a deep trough in the east, cold air locked in place and a powerful Low off the east coast and we don’t get at least a 4-8” storm where I’m located I’ll be pretty disappointed. Lol. I like the overall look. Let’s get the details lined up and have a fun 72 hours.

Frank I had weatherbell but where do you get big images of the indies there, I only ever saw the small panel. How many indies are like that or close to that?

Has anybody posted Euro 12z snow maps?

Srefs are no good but they haven't been that good

WOW! LOL

Nam looks good

aiannone wrote:WOW! LOL

Control is taking control!! If by some shot in the dark this gets really close and is that strong, I can;t even imagine, last time I saw that kinda output was Sandy.  NOT SAYING THIS IS SANDY, just saying I have never seen a winter storm with even ensemble members like that.

MOG!!! Any more shifts west and we in big trouble, forget the snow! That will be least of the problems.  The snow will be the fun part. Yes I know these are overdone by Euro usuallybut the span of the field of the wind is insane, no laughing matter if this comes right up coast.

IMO this still has Godzilla potential all over it. Esp for eastern coverage areas

Can snow maps be posted here now? And if so anyone have the 12z Euro?

sroc4 wrote:IMO this still has Godzilla potential all over it. Esp for eastern coverage areas

Slight possibility a roidzilla NYC on east?

Ryan Maue on twitter: Big picture: Massive and powerful "bomb" Nor'easter forms off East Coast Thursday. Pressure drops 50 mb / 24 hours making it a "double" or > 2 Bergerons. Hurricane force winds.

PLEASE COME WEST!!!!

mikeypizano wrote:PLEASE COME WEST!!!!

slowly but surely so far mike, do not lose hope.

It will mike have a feeling everybody will be happy

southern stream is slower again on the 18z Nam. Less spacing between the southern and northern stream.

nutleyblizzard wrote:southern stream is slower again on the 18z Nam. Less spacing between the southern and northern stream.

Is the Nam as powerful as the Euro, cuz earlier you guys said it could show a right up the coast senario, if the intensity matches its go get downright serious.

ok weird LP center shifted way east by western precip shield shifted west, it looks like theres a bunch of tiny LP in there too. It looks like NAM is having trouble on which center to focus on, am i right?  It also maybe is chasing the eastern side?

Okay no, the 32km nam is messed up the 12km shows it much further west giggity : )

Ominous

Looks like at hr 84 its trying chase that little LP to the east OTS? am I wrong?