Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

Ominous

Looks like at hr 84 its trying chase that little LP to the east OTS? am I wrong?

Frank_Wx wrote:Ominous

Okay I will take that it is NOT going OTS by that statement LOL. By the movement of the western most LP center ( there is a doiuble barrel low there) it appears to be moving more east, will it be hooking more back towards the west or is it just my eyes deciving me that its moving east?

This is a great look. Again one low chasing the energy out ahead but the main low in tight along the coast in response to phase. This is a pretty good look here.

sroc4 wrote:This is a great look. Again one low chasing the energy out ahead but the main low in tight along the coast in response to phase. This is a pretty good look here.

so that little low will break off and the main lp up the coast? LC says this has potential to be a crippling paralyzing blizzard. Didn't specify area. I don't know much about him but that's a bold statement.

Not that simple jman

Not gonna lie, there were multiple SREF members that made me do my best impression of The People's Eyebrow aha

sroc4 wrote:Not that simple jman

okay was just asking basically if the main lp to the west will follow the smaller to east or be it's own entity. I know I'm not a pro but go easy

rb924119 wrote:Not gonna lie, there were multiple SREF members that made me do my best impression of The People's Eyebrow aha

I read earlier the sref were no good this run u beg to differ?

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Not gonna lie, there were multiple SREF members that made me do my best impression of The People's Eyebrow aha

I read earlier the sref were no good this run u beg to differ?

I don't necessarily beg to differ. I mean the SREFS at this range are going to have a spread of solutions approximately equivalent to throwing spaghetti and sauce on a wall and seeing what results. Chaos lol but out of that chaos there were definitely some members that *if correct* would bring tears to the eyes of many in jubilation. By the same token, there are also members as intriguing on the other end of the spectrum. But they are still interesting to me to see the amplification that results in some of them.

sroc4 wrote:Not that simple jman

Scott wasn’t it last years blizzard where the NAM had trouble with multiple LOws because it was chasing convection. I’m thinking a storm bombing out like this one could b leading to the same issues. I’d like to hear your thoughts for us LI people.

the set up reminds me of the blizzard of jan 2016 with respect to the convection that went east of the primary low. that system was well west of this set up. if you remember dc/balt area was the jp zone several days before  on the major models as the models kept jumping the low east with it's precip shield towards the convection. when it came into the nam range it did not do what the other models were doing and consistently showed a heavy snow event for us. the big difference with this set up is that the trough and low are well east of the jan 16 blizzard so we have very little margin of error here. also scott, rb and frank is it true that lp likes to form near the 540 line?  if so than a closer to coast scenario is more likely. any how this is a very complex set up and do not be surprised if this storm ends up way west or east than currently modeled.

NWS out of Red Sox Suck very bullish with their forecast with snow likely Wednesday night and Thursday. But when you read the discussion they say based on 12z guidance they are favoring a more offshore track but due to the expansive size of the storm they expect a lot of precip on the western flank. NOT ENCOURAGING FOR US FURTHER SW IMHO.

Upton hasnt changed their discussion for Thursday one iota in almost 24 hours now. Useless

I can't say that I've ever heard that, Al, but conceptually I can kind of see why it might be proposed in a cyclogenesis case such as this one. It follows along the same lines as something I've been pondering since last night. If, big if, but if the troughs can interact, phase, and tilt negative sooner, then why would that insane amount of vorticity advection and jet dynamics overlapped with the natural coastal frontogenesis occurring between the Arctic airmass and Maritime airmass not develop a surface low there and then ride that thermal gradient? I'd have to think that's where your greatest pressure falls would be...? Just a ponderance; I do not know the answer that.

syosnow94 wrote:NWS out of Red Sox Suck very bullish with their forecast with snow likely Wednesday night and Thursday.  But when you read the discussion they say based on 12z guidance they are favoring a more offshore track but due to the expansive size of the storm they expect a lot of precip on the western flank.  NOT ENCOURAGING FOR US FURTHER SW IMHO.

Upton hasnt changed their discussion for Thursday one iota in almost 24 hours now.  Useless

The weather service is going to go with consensus, like they always do. This also means they will not take any risks, especially with something this impactful. They're gonna hug guidance to cover their rumps lol just like with the tropics.

GFS looking good

Hr 66 of the 18z GFS looks pretty similar to 12z, maybe a little more interaction

Looks like heights higher on east coast slightly. Also looks southern stream slower and polar vort faster could be interesting

Gfs rolling looks nearly the same at hr 78 at surface anyways. I wouldn't fret too much on 18z. Either way.

NWS in Upton is saying the center of LP can't come to much further west cause that will introduce warming is all levels. That would mean mixing or change over to rain along the coast With all this cold air I'm confused Rain has not even been mentioned in here

Eww it's east

A slower southern vort may be better for a earlier phase

oldtimer wrote:NWS in Upton is saying the center of LP can't come to much further west cause that will introduce warming is all levels.  That would mean mixing or change over to rain along the coast    With all this cold air I'm confused   Rain has not even been mentioned in here

I don't see how that's possible.

Sloppy phase may ent up a tick east

Keep in mind GFS east bias

The precip shifted but the L stayed in same spot but 10 mb weaker. Ehh it's 18z

There was times when storms broke away and became there own force. I been following these guys since the 7online weather blogs. And seen it happen or become double barrell