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Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:47 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Ominous

Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 2 5a494c802f9ee
Okay I will take that it is NOT going OTS by that statement LOL. By the movement of the western most LP center ( there is a doiuble barrel low there) it appears to be moving more east, will it be hooking more back towards the west or is it just my eyes deciving me that its moving east?
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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:05 pm

This is a great look. Again one low chasing the energy out ahead but the main low in tight along the coast in response to phase. This is a pretty good look here.

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Potential Mothrazilla January 4th-5th - Page 2 Ea042810

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:06 pm

@sroc4 wrote:This is a great look. Again one low chasing the energy out ahead but the main low in tight along the coast in response to phase. This is a pretty good look here.

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so that little low will break off and the main lp up the coast? LC says this has potential to be a crippling paralyzing blizzard. Didn't specify area. I don't know much about him but that's a bold statement.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:07 pm

Not that simple jman

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:07 pm

Not gonna lie, there were multiple SREF members that made me do my best impression of The People's Eyebrow aha

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:09 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Not that simple jman
okay was just asking basically if the main lp to the west will follow the smaller to east or be it's own entity. I know I'm not a pro but go easy
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:10 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Not gonna lie, there were multiple SREF members that made me do my best impression of The People's Eyebrow aha
I read earlier the sref were no good this run u beg to differ?
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:19 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Not gonna lie, there were multiple SREF members that made me do my best impression of The People's Eyebrow aha
I read earlier the sref were no good this run u beg to differ?

I don't necessarily beg to differ. I mean the SREFS at this range are going to have a spread of solutions approximately equivalent to throwing spaghetti and sauce on a wall and seeing what results. Chaos lol but out of that chaos there were definitely some members that *if correct* would bring tears to the eyes of many in jubilation. By the same token, there are also members as intriguing on the other end of the spectrum. But they are still interesting to me to see the amplification that results in some of them.

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Post by Guest Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:19 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Not that simple jman

Scott wasn’t it last years blizzard where the NAM had trouble with multiple LOws because it was chasing convection. I’m thinking a storm bombing out like this one could b leading to the same issues. I’d like to hear your thoughts for us LI people.

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Post by algae888 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:29 pm

the set up reminds me of the blizzard of jan 2016 with respect to the convection that went east of the primary low. that system was well west of this set up. if you remember dc/balt area was the jp zone several days before  on the major models as the models kept jumping the low east with it's precip shield towards the convection. when it came into the nam range it did not do what the other models were doing and consistently showed a heavy snow event for us. the big difference with this set up is that the trough and low are well east of the jan 16 blizzard so we have very little margin of error here. also scott, rb and frank is it true that lp likes to form near the 540 line?  if so than a closer to coast scenario is more likely. any how this is a very complex set up and do not be surprised if this storm ends up way west or east than currently modeled.
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Post by Guest Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:38 pm

NWS out of Red Sox Suck very bullish with their forecast with snow likely Wednesday night and Thursday. But when you read the discussion they say based on 12z guidance they are favoring a more offshore track but due to the expansive size of the storm they expect a lot of precip on the western flank. NOT ENCOURAGING FOR US FURTHER SW IMHO.

Upton hasnt changed their discussion for Thursday one iota in almost 24 hours now. Useless

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:43 pm

I can't say that I've ever heard that, Al, but conceptually I can kind of see why it might be proposed in a cyclogenesis case such as this one. It follows along the same lines as something I've been pondering since last night. If, big if, but if the troughs can interact, phase, and tilt negative sooner, then why would that insane amount of vorticity advection and jet dynamics overlapped with the natural coastal frontogenesis occurring between the Arctic airmass and Maritime airmass not develop a surface low there and then ride that thermal gradient? I'd have to think that's where your greatest pressure falls would be...? Just a ponderance; I do not know the answer that.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:48 pm

syosnow94 wrote:NWS out of Red Sox Suck very bullish with their forecast with snow likely Wednesday night and Thursday.  But when you read the discussion they say based on 12z guidance they are favoring a more offshore track but due to the expansive size of the storm they expect a lot of precip on the western flank.  NOT ENCOURAGING FOR US FURTHER SW IMHO.

Upton hasnt changed their discussion for Thursday one iota in almost 24 hours now.  Useless

The weather service is going to go with consensus, like they always do. This also means they will not take any risks, especially with something this impactful. They're gonna hug guidance to cover their rumps lol just like with the tropics.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:50 pm

GFS looking good
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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:50 pm

Hr 66 of the 18z GFS looks pretty similar to 12z, maybe a little more interaction

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:51 pm

Looks like heights higher on east coast slightly. Also looks southern stream slower and polar vort faster could be interesting
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:51 pm

Gfs rolling looks nearly the same at hr 78 at surface anyways. I wouldn't fret too much on 18z. Either way.
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Post by oldtimer Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:52 pm

NWS in Upton is saying the center of LP can't come to much further west cause that will introduce warming is all levels. That would mean mixing or change over to rain along the coast With all this cold air I'm confused Rain has not even been mentioned in here

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:53 pm

Eww it's east
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:53 pm

A slower southern vort may be better for a earlier phase
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:53 pm

@oldtimer wrote:NWS in Upton is saying the center of LP can't come to much further west cause that will introduce warming is all levels.  That would mean mixing or change over to rain along the coast    With all this cold air I'm confused   Rain has not even been mentioned in here
I don't see how that's possible.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:55 pm

Sloppy phase may ent up a tick east
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:57 pm

Keep in mind GFS east bias
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:57 pm

The precip shifted but the L stayed in same spot but 10 mb weaker. Ehh it's 18z
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Post by Carter bk Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:58 pm

There was times when storms broke away and became there own force. I been following these guys since the 7online weather blogs. And seen it happen or become double barrell

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