Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:31 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Hot damn!

how cold is that in ferenheit

While you have to remember that those are 850 temperatures so they're not at the surface.

But they are -10 centigrade so 14°F right over New York City

by toople Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:55 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I am expecting 1 more snowfall event N&W of NYC. For the coast, there is a chance we also see accumulating snow. April 1st to April 7th is the time frame.

Scott, nice write up.

You’re kidding! Sad

by **amugs** Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:05 pm

docstox12 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Scott, FANTUBLOUS write-up, as usual, and glad to see our fearless leader already on board. We have our conductor, I'm probably going to get my ticket soon so I can board the train (pending further analysis), who else would consider taking a ride on the next storm threat train?!!!! WOOOOOOO-WOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

I'm with you !!! Let's have an April 1982 repeat!

That woudl be FANTABULOUS a NOR EASTER on EASTER LOL!

by **dkodgis** Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:45 pm

April 9, 2000 I think I remember my sister-in-law got married in Rockland Co and it was a 7 inch storm or so. Lovely memory. This upcoming potential has deja vu written all over it.

CP, I resent the msg. Look for it.

by **billg315** Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:46 pm

Definitely a lot brewing from 3/30 to 4/7 time frame. Looks like we may start the period warm but then knock that ridge down and usher in some BN temps with an initial storm. That would set the stage for a sneaky storm (or two) to come in behind it and take advantage of those cooler temps (and if strong enough hopefully create some of its own). Way off but hey, wouldn’t be the first time the first week of April greeted us with one last blast of winter.

by **Math23x7** Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:33 am

dkodgis wrote:April 7, 2000 I think I remember my sister-in-law got married in Rockland Co and it was a 7 inch storm or so. Lovely memory. This upcoming potential has deja vu written all over it.

CP, I resent the msg. Look for it.

The 2000 snowstorm was April 9th (Sunday). It snowed on April 7th three years later (Monday)

by **rb924119** Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:10 am

HERE WE GO, BOYS AND GIRLS, LADIES AND GENTS!!!!!!

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 29 Img_1413

Day 10 EURO Ensemble low cluster.....

by **rb924119** Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:17 am

GEM Ensembles:

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 29 Img_1439

by **rb924119** Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:21 am

GFS has nothing, but I expect that to change and for it to revert back to what it showed on yesterday's 18z in due time.

by **amugs** Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:12 pm

Um Houston - you want to take a look at this???

EPS has us cold through the end of its run.

by **amugs** Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:15 pm

i got my MJO BACK!!!!!

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 29 NCPE_phase_21m_small

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 29 Combined_image

by **rb924119** Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:22 pm

And here comes the GFS....

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:55 pm

rb924119 wrote:And here comes the GFS....

And Survey says!!!!!!!!!!!

by **docstox12** Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:57 pm

amugs wrote:Um Houston - you want to take a look at this???

EPS has us cold through the end of its run.

"Just when you think you're out......they pull me back IN"!!!!!

by **billg315** Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:35 pm

Looks like right now the GFS continues to want to bring everything during this early April time-frame to our west, but clearly there will be a lot of activity around the east coast that week so that can always lead to different surface solutions as we get closer. There are a couple points late week where it looks like it might be trying to brew something to our south near the coast. Still a loooong way off.

by **rb924119** Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:47 pm

Currently at work so I cannot post anything further, but somebody may want to post the 12z EPS MSLP clusters and individual snow panels through day 13, along with the Control. Just saying Wink

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:58 pm

Day 13....really ray? Man If I could count the number of times I have been chastized for making mention of a phantom storm at 13 days out lol, pay the man behind the curtain no mind!

by **rb924119** Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:07 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Day 13....really ray? Man If I could count the number of times I have been chastized for making mention of a phantom storm at 13 days out lol, pay the man behind the curtain no mind!

I've NEVER chastised you for looking at things or mentioning them. I love the clown maps and talking about possible events! And I'm not mentioning this because it's AT Day 13, but because of timing differences that's when all of the members bring whatever system through. But I wanted to highlight this to show that ideas presented for this period have some merit from modeling as well as other individuals. That's all. I'm not saying to look at the models verbatim, but just for some of the ideas that they represent so as to drive further discussion. Isn't that the purpose of this forum? Smile

by **WeatherBob** Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:38 pm

RB, you have to admit, you seem rev’d up for this event. I think a lot of people on this forum are just kinna worn out from the 4 storms we have had in March. Also there have been a lot of let downs for some people on this board due to warm air at the coast, mysterious dry slots ( which you can attest to) and then the big S word in between the bands.

However, keep up the discussion so people who choose can Look, Listen and Learn (LLL)

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:57 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Day 13....really ray? Man If I could count the number of times I have been chastized for making mention of a phantom storm at 13 days out lol, pay the man behind the curtain no mind!

I've NEVER chastised you for looking at things or mentioning them. I love the clown maps and talking about possible events! And I'm not mentioning this because it's AT Day 13, but because of timing differences that's when all of the members bring whatever system through. But I wanted to highlight this to show that ideas presented for this period have some merit from modeling as well as other individuals. That's all. I'm not saying to look at the models verbatim, but just for some of the ideas that they represent so as to drive further discussion. Isn't that the purpose of this forum?

no never you ray was just poking fun at some old timers here haha. It's cool. Yes I'm worn out and really done personslly.

by **Grselig** Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Day 13....really ray? Man If I could count the number of times I have been chastized for making mention of a phantom storm at 13 days out lol, pay the man behind the curtain no mind!

I've NEVER chastised you for looking at things or mentioning them. I love the clown maps and talking about possible events! And I'm not mentioning this because it's AT Day 13, but because of timing differences that's when all of the members bring whatever system through. But I wanted to highlight this to show that ideas presented for this period have some merit from modeling as well as other individuals. That's all. I'm not saying to look at the models verbatim, but just for some of the ideas that they represent so as to drive further discussion. Isn't that the purpose of this forum?
no never you ray was just poking fun at some old timers here haha. It's cool. Yes I'm worn out and really done personslly.

Never ever done. if there is a chance of snow, I've got an eyebrow raised!!!! Lets go winter!!!!!!!

by **rb924119** Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:42 pm

WeatherBob wrote:RB, you have to admit, you seem rev’d up for this event. I think a lot of people on this forum are just kinna worn out from the 4 storms we have had in March. Also there have been a lot of let downs for some people on this board due to warm air at the coast, mysterious dry slots ( which you can attest to) and then the big S word in between the bands.

However, keep up the discussion so people who choose can Look, Listen and Learn (LLL)

Oh, I'm absolutely fired up for this event!! It's snow, and winter; my two favorite aspects of weather lmao while I am fully aware of some of the small-scale disappointments, I think the large-scale picture has produced an absolutely thrilling period of time. Tracking four major storms in the span of a few weeks is not something that we get to experience all that often, and when I have forecasts and outlooks involved it ends up being like a bet on a horse race for me. I love the challenges of forecasting these things, so when I'm presented with a FIFTH opportunity in even fewer weeks, you'd better believe I'm excited. Winter only comes around once a year, so I enjoy it as much as possible while I can and learn as much as I can. Did I miss out on most of these? Yes. But that still doesn't take away from my enthrallment, enjoyment, and desire of forecasting them and watching how everything evolves, and seeing if my ideas had merit or were off the mark. It's all about the thrill of the chase and self-improvement for me, and as long as I keep getting opportunities, I'm gonna maintain my high octane energy ahaha

by **rb924119** Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:20 pm

God the GEM was very close to the evolution we need. Only a single operational run, but still......seeing what the EURO did last night and in looking at the GFS Ensembles, I like where we sit right now. A LOT of time.

by **dad4twoboys** Sat Mar 24, 2018 8:27 pm

Grselig wrote:
Never ever done. if there is a chance of snow, I've got an eyebrow raised!!!! Lets go winter!!!!!!!

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 29 John_b10

by **docstox12** Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:24 am

dad4twoboys wrote:
Grselig wrote:
Never ever done. if there is a chance of snow, I've got an eyebrow raised!!!! Lets go winter!!!!!!!

Classic, brings back the movie "Animal House'!!!

by **WeatherBob** Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:20 am

RB - the GFS goes zonal after 144 hr . Does that seem right? You usually see the long term like after 240 hr go zonal sometimes since it is calculating very far out. Any other models showing the potential to go zonal? My other question is, what time frame are we looking at for a potential storm?

by **billg315** Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:59 am

GFS really hasn’t been putting out any threat for next week (week of April1) verbatim. It has been cutting most of the disturbances to our west keeping us on the rainy side with the exception of a possible over-running light snow event at the end of the period. It is active, just not depicting any hits. Not sure what the latest Euro runs are showing, if they still have a coastal or two. Again we’re talking 5-10 days out so much can evolve on the surface level.

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