Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

by **WeatherBob** Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:20 am

RB - the GFS goes zonal after 144 hr . Does that seem right? You usually see the long term like after 240 hr go zonal sometimes since it is calculating very far out. Any other models showing the potential to go zonal? My other question is, what time frame are we looking at for a potential storm?

by **billg315** Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:59 am

GFS really hasn’t been putting out any threat for next week (week of April1) verbatim. It has been cutting most of the disturbances to our west keeping us on the rainy side with the exception of a possible over-running light snow event at the end of the period. It is active, just not depicting any hits. Not sure what the latest Euro runs are showing, if they still have a coastal or two. Again we’re talking 5-10 days out so much can evolve on the surface level.

by **billg315** Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:32 pm

GFS sniffing something out around April 7? Plenty of Cold air aloft, BN temps at surface as a system scoots through to our south. Maybe something to keep an eye on.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:48 pm

billg315 wrote:GFS sniffing something out around April 7? Plenty of Cold air aloft, BN temps at surface as a system scoots through to our south. Maybe something to keep an eye on.

It sure is.

Here is today's 12z GEFS valid for April 6th.

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 30 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_44

A couple of things to note

1. -NAO block (ridge over Greenland) still in place

2. -WPO in place (ridge in the northern PAC) is connecting with the -NAO ridge to keep the AO also negative

The PV is over central Canada. If we can get this PV further S&E, then I think that would give our area with sufficient cold air and prevent our storm from cutting west. Also, let's watch the PNA region. If the ridge pops that will further help usher cold air into our area. Verbatim, this pattern is not "extreme" enough to support a widespread snowstorm but it is close.

by **Math23x7** Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:41 pm

The 8-14 day has the analog from around Easter 1970 that JB has pointed out.

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 26, 2018 5:07 pm

I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.

by **amugs** Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:02 pm

12Z EPS reinforce's 12Z GEFS

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 30 Img_2059

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:24 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.

Don’t sleep on the 1st-4th

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:14 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.

Don’t sleep on the 1st-4th

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 30 770e3810

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Mar 27, 2018 5:11 am

April looks like its going to be cold!

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:41 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.

Don’t sleep on the 1st-4th

oh I'll be sleeping spring break lol. Find I hard to buy it will snow anywhere near the coast unless it's a absolute bomb and makes it's own cold. Go b 62 and 50s through weekend.

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:43 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:April looks like its going to be cold!

ya and honestly I'm not too happy bout it as much as I like snow now we seem to be pushing winter to summer no such thing as spring anymore.

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:49 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'll check in on the 5th as we know this yr nothing has really shown till 48 hrs or less.

Don’t sleep on the 1st-4th

to be bitter by a giant snake? Isn't that image from that part?

by **Math23x7** Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:32 pm

The 12Z CMC has quite the eye candy for early next week.

by **amugs** Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:03 pm

Madonna it's is a snowy look PV in SE CAN and a SW cutting underneath the block again. Huge WPO with a bridge to the NAO block and PNA ridge.

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 30 Ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.png.bd79477f66a1550a58b8401fda6bbf49

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 30 Ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.png.bd79477f66a1550a58b8401fda6bbf49

by **SNOW MAN** Tue Mar 27, 2018 6:10 pm

Just watched the Mets/Professors at Penn State do their snow risk segment. They were talking about how it would turn colder at the beginning of April and that around the 5th of the month, the Canadian, American and the European models are showing a significant snow event could possibly happen. Hopefully everything will come together to give us a nice snow storm.

by **Math23x7** Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:14 am

The 0Z ECMWF last night: the block just west of Greenland, the 50/50 low, and the ridging out west. Imagine having this setup in January...

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 30 15222510

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 30 15222510

Sent from Topic'it App

by **amugs** Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:55 pm

12Z EURO says HELLLLLOOOOO!! next week.
From earthlight

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 30 Img_2060

by **sroc4** Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:08 am

Pattern looking to become zonal. While I suppose I cannot 100% rule out one more, I’m afraid....

by **billg315** Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:28 am

I'm still not ruling out the possibility for a quick, last hit of snow around April 6-7. May not be a big coastal storm, but I think around that timeframe there could be one last accumulating snow (probably one of those 1-3" type events and most likely if it arrives at night). Then, onto barbecues and soon thereafter, beach trips. To everything there is a season . . . turn, turn, turn.

by **amugs** Thu Mar 29, 2018 12:39 pm

With the MJO going into these phases this pattern is going to be interesting iMO

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 30 ECMF_phase_51m_small

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 30 NCPE_phase_21m_small

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:56 pm

Gefs have some roudzilla hits ugh sorry guys really?

by **Math23x7** Fri Mar 30, 2018 2:38 am

The 0Z ECMWF has a decent snow event for April on Monday morning.

by **aiannone** Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:43 am

Well then lol
Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 30 C88eaf10

by **Sanchize06** Fri Mar 30, 2018 9:08 am

6z GFS

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 30 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13

by **Snow88** Fri Mar 30, 2018 9:29 am

German, Euro, GFS,GEFS,RGEM, Euro Mean and Ukie are all trending north with the Monday system from earlier in the week. Euro has another snow event with below freezing temps later next week.

by **billg315** Fri Mar 30, 2018 9:36 am

Monday and Friday night are still two days to watch I think. This may be our last go around for the year so a little excitement never hurts.

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