First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
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First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
I felt it was an appropriate time to start our first winter storm thread of the season. Granted this will not be a significant winter storm, but it looks exceedingly likely areas N&W of NYC will see their first snow and ice of the season.



This is a solid 12+ hours of wintry precipitation for some places. A strong 1030mb High Pressure is anchored over Maine which is keeping low level cold in place over parts of our area Thursday. It will be interesting to see if models trend colder or warmer over the coming days. It will depend on where that High is exactly.



This is a solid 12+ hours of wintry precipitation for some places. A strong 1030mb High Pressure is anchored over Maine which is keeping low level cold in place over parts of our area Thursday. It will be interesting to see if models trend colder or warmer over the coming days. It will depend on where that High is exactly.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
Really excited about this upcoming winter. Got down to 24 last night and starting to get that "snow is almost here" feel up here. I wouldn't be surprised by 1 or 2 inches here Thursday night. I think there will be enough cold air locked in to achieve that before a changeover to rain. I guess I have to finish raking the leaves.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
Not sure I am buying that drastic cutoff from 6 inches of snow to zero snow within the span of maybe five or so miles? Does this include sleet/freezing rain as part of the totals?
bobjohnsonforthehall- Posts : 263
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
Both the Euro and ukie on board for a snow and sleet accumulations thursday afternoon and night 4 to 7 in on the Euro 6 to 8 in on the UK verbatim for most of the area
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
I am a big fan of those 1030 plus high pressure that sit over Northern New England
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
@algae888 wrote:I am a big fan of those 1030 plus high pressure that  sit over Northern New England
We just have to make sure thats where it stays. Today is encouraging but Im not sold on that just yet
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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
18Z GFS is colder FWIW. NWS Albany talking about possible accumulating snow here late thursday and thursday night and may need winter weather headlines.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
Right now there is still a split between NAM and GFS with GFS colder with more snow and sleet for north jersey/nyc metro. My guess is that we will see some frozen precip from this system, but I doubt we’ll see much accumulation (other than maybe a coating on some colder surfaces), except in the Poconos, upper Hudson Val and maybe extreme NW NJ.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
Madonne...this is quite the look at 500mb. A closed off 500mb uppper level low over Kentucky Thursday afternoon and moving North-northeast right into the cold air mass that's there from the High.

My initial thoughts are still little to no accumulation for NYC and points S&E, but for N&W including interior NJ, north central NJ and northern NJ there could be a swath of 2-4/3-6" of snow that tries to develop. The potential is actually there for more but lets not get ahead of ourselves yet. Thursday afternoon we deal with wave #1, which is front end snow/sleet to rain for the coast and maybe snow to frozen precip for interior. But wave 2 early Friday morning could drop a few inches to the aforementioned areas. We shall see...

My initial thoughts are still little to no accumulation for NYC and points S&E, but for N&W including interior NJ, north central NJ and northern NJ there could be a swath of 2-4/3-6" of snow that tries to develop. The potential is actually there for more but lets not get ahead of ourselves yet. Thursday afternoon we deal with wave #1, which is front end snow/sleet to rain for the coast and maybe snow to frozen precip for interior. But wave 2 early Friday morning could drop a few inches to the aforementioned areas. We shall see...
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
I don't know what to believe TWC has snow developing Thursday afternoon 1to 3 inches of snow then changeing to rain by nite
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
0z NAM is running. We’ll see how it looks. We’re only 72 hours out, but the models might get a better read on Thursday after tonight’s storm clears out tomorrow.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
I guess I have been aweful busy, those snow maps are crazy! 6+ even in southern WC? I dunno if I buy that but I will take our first delay or snow day lol, Interesting of course favors the interior but you never know, as you guys have noted it appears its trending colder.@frank 638 wrote:I don't know what to believe TWC has snow developing Thursday afternoon 1to 3 inches of snow then changeing to rain by nite
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
Any chance I see any sig snow out of this? I work in white plains now and am not looking forward to a friday morning commute in the snow, it always is colder up near 287. But what about down here? Those snow maps show pretty high snowfall even to the coast IF they are taken verbatim. Note the 12z Euro has a ton of freezing rain over a huge area encompassing the area and most of PA with as much as 1" of ice!@billg315 wrote:0z NAM is running. We’ll see how it looks. We’re only 72 hours out, but the models might get a better read on Thursday after tonight’s storm clears out tomorrow.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
It certainly seems to me that it will be cold enough aloft to support snow across much of the area Thursday evening. I guess my questions are, when will the transition from rain t snow take place and how much will stick. It is getting dark early now and the sun angle is approaching it’s weakest period so that helps.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
Sun angle is a non issue now. I'm actually starting to think several inches could fall across interior portions of NJ, NEPA and SNY. NYC and coast is uncertain still.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
Sorry I jmanley I am half a sleep Is this a dream I hope this comes true let it snow lol
frank 638- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
Hey Al, this is your season : ) What do you think for us down here? Models show accumulating snow even down to the coast but the amounts being shown especially on the para GFS and Euro last night are crazy for mid november.@algae888 wrote:Both the Euro and ukie on board for a snow and sleet accumulations thursday afternoon and night 4 to 7 in on the Euro 6 to 8 in on the UK verbatim for most of the area
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
Actually sitting down to do some formal analysis on this event, and I must say that I like what I'm seeing in the hemispheric setup, and fully expect us to see this continue to trend a bit further south and east as we draw closer to the event, both the surface low track and the mid-level low. I think a lot of us will see significant snowfall from this, regardless of November's historical standards. More details to come......at some point tonight haha
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
We can't get mad if it doesn't, rarely have we seen snow to any significance this early, northern areas obviously stand the best chance but maybe this will be one to remember. Haha@frank 638 wrote:Sorry I jmanley I am half a sleep Is this a dream I hope this comes true let it snow lol
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16
NAM raining thursday afternoon but heavy snow fel lto our south a foot in carolinas lol, they would literally crumble. Hr 81 NAM has 4-8 areawide, except LI. the higest N/W of NYC by about 20 miles or so. Al shows us getting 3-6!
NAm trended much colder and south than the 18z.
NAm trended much colder and south than the 18z.
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