Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

[mikeypizano]

if we all come together and hold hands we may be able to pray to old man winter even if we have to make a sacrifice we can draw straws

Thoughts and prayers!

1 LIKE = 1 PRAYER
1 SHARE = 10 THOUGHTS

#NJSTRONG

[Frank_Wx]

Oh man this was one of my biggest bust snow maps of all time

[GreyBeard]

A little creativity and fun.  Far better than bashing people.  At least we may have something to track. Hope this pans out.  

Our little repartee yesterday was amusing (to me anyway) and I too hope something pans out and that we have something to track. However, it's not a good sign when Frank is looking backwards instead of forwards.

[Grselig]

A little creativity and fun.  Far better than bashing people.  At least we may have something to track. Hope this pans out.  

Our little repartee yesterday was amusing (to me anyway) and I too hope something pans out and that we have something to track. However, it's not a good sign when Frank is looking backwards instead of forwards.

Like Yes. it was fun. We need a sense of humor (or delusion as Jman said) in life.

[SENJsnowman]

A little creativity and fun.  Far better than bashing people.  At least we may have something to track. Hope this pans out.  

Our little repartee yesterday was amusing (to me anyway) and I too hope something pans out and that we have something to track. However, it's not a good sign when Frank is looking backwards instead of forwards.

I think this looking back is more of an 'in memoriam' tribute for the 1/27/15 storm that never was. I feel that those of us that lived through this (God I pray once in a lifetime) trauma of 1/27/15, have a duty to remember this day well. We all admire nature's beauty and we all respect her fury...but MAN is she a fickle soul! I'M MOTHER NATURE AND IF I WANT TO BE A TOTAL PSYCHO B&%@H AND NOT SNOW TONIGHT, OR THIS WINTER, THEN I WON'T. DEAL WITH IT. OK, I heard that...I ain't like it much, but it's simple enough to get that's for sure.

We ended up with 5-6" worth of back end thump that next morning. Worst 5-6" inches ever...obviously. And I still remember the feeling I had at midnight that night when I finally decided to stop staring at the window...wondering so earnestly why the feeling was so...visceral. I suspect many on this board can relate...

My wife tells a story of how her father took her and her siblings to the toy store, loaded up the cart with goodies for all...and then, when he saw how long the checkout line was, he told everyone to forget it and just get back in the car!!!  (Yes, he really is a great guy! Just not that particular day I guess ha ha).

This was what Nick Gregory's map looked like as of the night before...def on the bullish end, but as I recall the Shore was being projected by some for up to 2' and by others for at least 2'.

[Grselig]

A little creativity and fun.  Far better than bashing people.  At least we may have something to track. Hope this pans out.  

Our little repartee yesterday was amusing (to me anyway) and I too hope something pans out and that we have something to track. However, it's not a good sign when Frank is looking backwards instead of forwards.

I think this looking back is more of an 'in memoriam' tribute for the 1/27/15 storm that never was. I feel that those of us that lived through this (God I pray once in a lifetime) trauma of 1/27/15, have a duty to remember this day well. We all admire nature's beauty and we all respect her fury...but MAN is she a fickle soul! I'M MOTHER NATURE AND IF I WANT TO BE A TOTAL PSYCHO B&%@H AND NOT SNOW TONIGHT, OR THIS WINTER, THEN I WON'T. DEAL WITH IT. OK, I heard that...I ain't like it much, but it's simple enough to get that's for sure.

We ended up with 5-6" worth of back end thump that next morning. Worst 5-6" inches ever...obviously. And I still remember the feeling I had at midnight that night when I finally decided to stop staring at the window...wondering so earnestly why the feeling was so...visceral. I suspect many on this board can relate...

My wife tells a story of how her father took her and her siblings to the toy store, loaded up the cart with goodies for all...and then, when he saw how long the checkout line was, he told everyone to forget it and just get back in the car!!!  (Yes, he really is a great guy! Just not that particular day I guess ha ha).

This was what Nick Gregory's map looked like as of the night before...def on the bullish end, but as I recall the Shore was being projected by some for up to 2' and by others for at least 2'.

The most horrible (non tragic family related, reasonable its only weather caveat etc) event of my life.

[billg315]

Oh man this was one of my biggest bust snow maps of all time

I remember sending the following picture to my friends telling them, “just wait until all that moisture wraps back in over us.” It never really did. Lol. Talk about near misses.

[docstox12]

A little creativity and fun.  Far better than bashing people.  At least we may have something to track. Hope this pans out.  

Our little repartee yesterday was amusing (to me anyway) and I too hope something pans out and that we have something to track. However, it's not a good sign when Frank is looking backwards instead of forwards.

I think this looking back is more of an 'in memoriam' tribute for the 1/27/15 storm that never was. I feel that those of us that lived through this (God I pray once in a lifetime) trauma of 1/27/15, have a duty to remember this day well. We all admire nature's beauty and we all respect her fury...but MAN is she a fickle soul! I'M MOTHER NATURE AND IF I WANT TO BE A TOTAL PSYCHO B&%@H AND NOT SNOW TONIGHT, OR THIS WINTER, THEN I WON'T. DEAL WITH IT. OK, I heard that...I ain't like it much, but it's simple enough to get that's for sure.

We ended up with 5-6" worth of back end thump that next morning. Worst 5-6" inches ever...obviously. And I still remember the feeling I had at midnight that night when I finally decided to stop staring at the window...wondering so earnestly why the feeling was so...visceral. I suspect many on this board can relate...

My wife tells a story of how her father took her and her siblings to the toy store, loaded up the cart with goodies for all...and then, when he saw how long the checkout line was, he told everyone to forget it and just get back in the car!!!  (Yes, he really is a great guy! Just not that particular day I guess ha ha).

This was what Nick Gregory's map looked like as of the night before...def on the bullish end, but as I recall the Shore was being projected by some for up to 2' and by others for at least 2'.

LOL, so true that highlighted sentence on Mother Nature! This year illustrates how difficult it is to try and harness Mother Nature to man made mathematical formulas and why I believe a lot more work is needed on these models at this juncture because the variables resulting in a map like Frank posted above or the long range this season.It's terrible going through awful winters with little snow, and brother, I have seen many of them since 1960.The only good thing about it is that it sets you up to really appreciate one like 1995-1996.Liking what I see as per Frank and Doc's analysis for next week! A possibility for snow and cold following.Maybe I can sustain a snowpack for at least a week,LOL.

Also, all of you poor snowaholics have many years ahead of you to experience the thrill of a 25 inch blizzard or the agony of cutters and suppression.I'm 68 years old and still hopelessly addicted to snowstorms and winter,LOL.

[billg315]

In going back to look at that storm I found the following e-mail I sent to some friends and colleagues who rely on me for weather updates in these storms. I sent it that Tuesday morning as snow was just starting to fall -- too little, too late. I knew I needed to offer an explanation because I was already getting the "man you weather guys really screwed up" responses. Reading this today, the last paragraph stands the test of time as a truth that in frustration sometimes people overlook. Here's your daily nostalgia:

Wow, look at all this snow!! Ok, not so much. Well I'm tempted to just point to the pretty steady snow falling outside my window and say, see, it is snowing, the forecast was right, but that would be disingenuous, no? So I figure a lot of people would want to know what happened and rather than explain a dozen times, here is the synopsis:
> First, everyone should know that the storm ITSELF was not a "bust." The forecast of the position of the storm was a bust, but this was every bit as powerful a storm as forecasted. If you were on Long Island last night, in New England this morning, or even just off the Jersey coast, you experienced howling winds, blinding snow and significant accumulation amounts in excess of a foot. The storm was every bit as advertised in strength. There are two things that contributed to us in New Jersey (and even more so in PA) having "bust" amounts.
>
> First, the computer models incorrectly placed the storm track about 50-75 miles west of where it ended up tracking. That, in a storm like this makes all the difference in the world. If you move the effects of the storm that were just 50-75 miles east/northeast of us last night to the west and place them over our area, we would still be digging out tomorrow. Coastal storms are very sensitive to track because the bulk of the precipitation is confined to a very narrow area on the back side of the storm and the margin for error is often very little.
>
> But the track alone did not make the difference here. As anyone from Somerville to the north and east can see this morning (See picture below), it is snowing and snowing at a pretty decent clip outside my window right now. If we had gotten snow like this starting around 10 or 11 last night, it might well still have added up to about 6 or 7 inches by the time it ends this morning even with the storm's east track. While not the foot-plus that was forecasted, it still would have been a significant snowfall. But alas, it didn't start snowing here until about 3 a.m. So why did it take so long for the snow to work west off the ocean? An area of convection set up over Central PA last night. In my old stomping grounds of State College PA and central Pennsylvania it snowed pretty good yesterday evening. That caused the air just to the east of that (eastern PA and NJ) to dry out. So as the snow bands tried to work onshore last night they hit the dry air and it was like hitting a brick wall. If you looked at the radar between 8 and midnight last night, there was a sharp line right down the coast of NJ where the snow just stopped. Even as the heavy bands moved west, they would simply evaporate at the coast line. That deprived us of several hours of good snow and that situation didn't start to alleviate until after midnight. By then, with the storm tracking further east than expected, it was too late.
>
> The result? Most people waking up to light to moderate snow with only a coating to an inch on the ground. Very disappointing. But, it is the weather and nobody should ever think, particularly with the unpredictable nature of winter storms that any forecast is a lock.
> I'll end with this for my friends in the meteorology community who get paid to do this work. I'm an amateur so it's easy for me to shrug off a a blown forecast and say "oops." But these folks work very hard at getting the forecast right. They take their work seriously and stress over it very much. Nobody wants to nail the forecast more than they do. They are not hyping the storm to sell groceries or get people to watch TV news (maybe the TV news programs hype it for that reason, and they shamelessly do, but not the professional meteorologists who make the forecasts). And they sure as heck are not "always wrong." The fact is, they are right 90 percent of the time, and when they are, nobody notices because we go about our daily routines taking for granted that the forecast was right. We never stop on a day when its pouring rain as forecast to say, "the weathermen did such a good job predicting the rain today." Only when they're wrong do people take notice. They are as embarrassed as anyone when a forecast is this wrong. But in the end, as good as they are, they are not perfect and they will occasionally miss one, especially with storms as complex as this. If people had to go just a couple months not knowing what the weather would be the next day until they woke up, I think they would better recognize the good work meteorologists do. So with that, I leave you a picture of the snow falling on Main Street in Somerville right now. Heaviest of the storm so far.
>

[amugs]

A few Midwest School districts are calling off school next week due to the dangerous wind chills, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, to name a couple bid city Schools and I are the whole region will as we get close in time. The UK MET put out amps tjis.morning showing wind chill values at -45 to 58 below zero for much of the upper Midwest region
Remarkable

[RJB8525]

Hopefully can get a small win with this Tuesday system. All forecasts for me have Rain/Snow as of now. 2" without damn rain and I'll be happy

[HectorO]

Glad to see Thursday's temps went up about 10 degrees to 18 for a high rather than 8 or 7. Can't stand those single digit highs when your house has crappy heat lol.

[HectorO]

BTW, I asked for the temps to go up and they did, so I'm taking requests? Anyone need to ask Mother Nature anything?

[SENJsnowman]

BTW, I asked for the temps to go up and they did, so I'm taking requests? Anyone need to ask Mother Nature anything?

A 950 mb bomb at the benchmark for Tue/Wed?

[heehaw453]

Can anyone think of anything more useless than The Euro Weeklies? Just straight up garbage this winter.

[weatherwatchermom]

sad this board has not been this dead since August....

[docstox12]

sad this board has not been this dead since August....

Mom, just the consequence of a non productive winter.If a bomb develops in the next 2 months it will change very fast.

I think one of the worst was '96-'97 or '97-98 where there was only a 4 or 5 inch snow in late February or March that melted in a day.That stretch of a few years was awful.

[frank 638]

This has been the worst depressing winter for snowlovers .what is the point of having fresh cold air with no snow every time we get a storm we end up with rain then back to cold . i hope feb into march we get something if not just bring on spring at least we get t storms and heatwaves to look forward to

[mikeypizano]

sad this board has not been this dead since August....

I am only here to plow driveways...

#PLOWIST

[SoulSingMG]

Looking at this long range guidance like

At this point, it wouldn't surprise me if we simply just don't get a formidable snowstorm for the I-95 corrider AT ALL this winter. Ridiculous.

[Grselig]

I’m rapidly considering becoming a turncoat and start loving cold rain and mixed bag. Maybe then we will get snow and productive cold. I’m willing to sacrifice in the name of snow

[RJB8525]

sad this board has not been this dead since August....

unless we want to talk about rain there's not much winter talk lol

[weatherwatchermom]

sad this board has not been this dead since August....

unless we want to talk about rain there's not much winter talk lol

thats how I feel about all the rain..

[heehaw453]

Ladies and gentlemen rockin' February may not rock like we were hoping for. The long range Euro/CMC ensembles are kind of dog poop 10-15 days out, but would it surprise anyone if February had equal or less snowfall than January?

[SENJsnowman]

Ladies and gentlemen rockin' February may not rock like we were hoping for.  The long range Euro/CMC ensembles are kind of dog poop 10-15 days out, but would it surprise anyone if February had equal or less snowfall than January?  

Isn't this good news though since the 10-15 day ensembles have busted all winter.

Oh, that's right, those types of trends only matter when they lead to it NOT snowing on the eastern seaboard. Ok...got it now.

[mwilli5783]

lets see what pux says on groundhog day....probably early spring at this point

[heehaw453]

Ladies and gentlemen rockin' February may not rock like we were hoping for.  The long range Euro/CMC ensembles are kind of dog poop 10-15 days out, but would it surprise anyone if February had equal or less snowfall than January?  

Isn't this good news though since the 10-15 day ensembles have busted all winter.

Oh, that's right, those types of trends only matter when they lead to it NOT snowing on the eastern seaboard. Ok...got it now.

LOL! I wouldn't have the audacity to post about promising ensembles at this point. That'd just be wrong based on this year's results. But you're right, this could be the break we need!

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