Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

[skinsfan1177]

It is important to keep an eye on Friday's storm too. This weak system dampens heights enough to bring down a fresh batch of cold air in time for the Sunday storm. If this storm doesn't exist then it runs the risk of warmer scenarios for Sunday. But if it is too strong it pushes the baroclinic zone too far to the south and east which would keep the Sunday storm to our south

Frank what's your take on the pv press on each GFS ensemble run its has got stronger each time is that concern you at all. Your take on this thank you

[jmanley32]

No No No, we cannot have suppression again, i swear if VA and NC get 20 to 40 inches of snow I will scream and you all will hear it lol, please if this goes wrong let it be something other than suppression, i cant believe we are already bringing that up, it means its a done deal. ray I thought you said that or hinted at that not being an issue?

[skinsfan1177]

No No No, we cannot have suppression again, i swear if VA and NC get 20 to 40 inches of snow I will scream and you all will hear it lol, please if this goes wrong let it be something other than suppression, i cant believe we are already bringing that up, it means its a done deal. ray I thought you said that or hinted at that not being an issue?

I'm not saying jman that's going to happen in just asking Frank's take on it. One thing for sure this is not cutting.

[jmanley32]

No No No, we cannot have suppression again, i swear if VA and NC get 20 to 40 inches of snow I will scream and you all will hear it lol, please if this goes wrong let it be something other than suppression, i cant believe we are already bringing that up, it means its a done deal. ray I thought you said that or hinted at that not being an issue?

I'm not saying jman that's going to happen in just asking Frank's take on it. One thing for sure this is not cutting.

some runs have shown that too though, what makes you so sure of that? the PV? Can't it change easily?

[skinsfan1177]

No No No, we cannot have suppression again, i swear if VA and NC get 20 to 40 inches of snow I will scream and you all will hear it lol, please if this goes wrong let it be something other than suppression, i cant believe we are already bringing that up, it means its a done deal. ray I thought you said that or hinted at that not being an issue?

I'm not saying jman that's going to happen in just asking Frank's take on it. One thing for sure this is not cutting.

some runs have shown that too though, what makes you so sure of that? the PV? Can't it change easily?

See im not saying it's for sure I was asking Frank's take on it. Bc that's what happened this last time around and it is showing up on models again. But I'm hearing that this time the PV is further north

[nutleyblizzard]

No No No, we cannot have suppression again, i swear if VA and NC get 20 to 40 inches of snow I will scream and you all will hear it lol, please if this goes wrong let it be something other than suppression, i cant believe we are already bringing that up, it means its a done deal. ray I thought you said that or hinted at that not being an issue?

Actually I would like to see a bit more confluence develop in future runs to ensure plenty of cold air support for the weekend storm. That would bring those insane snow amounts depicted in SNE down by our neck of the woods. As of now we are on the dividing line between ice sleet and snow. Suppression while still on the table seems unlikely at this point. A cutter you can forget about it. At this point in time I wouldn't stress out over any particular OP runs. I expect to see alot of waffling going on for the next 2-3 days. Until then stick with the ensembles.

[skinsfan1177]

No No No, we cannot have suppression again, i swear if VA and NC get 20 to 40 inches of snow I will scream and you all will hear it lol, please if this goes wrong let it be something other than suppression, i cant believe we are already bringing that up, it means its a done deal. ray I thought you said that or hinted at that not being an issue?

Actually I would like to see a bit more confluence develop in future runs to ensure plenty of cold air support for the weekend storm. That would bring those insane snow amounts depicted in SNE down by our neck of the woods. As of now we are on the dividing line between ice sleet and snow.  Suppression while still on the table seems unlikely at this point. A cutter you can forget about it. At this point in time I wouldn't stress out over any particular OP runs. I expect to see alot of waffling going on for the next 2-3 days. Until then stick with the ensembles.

Good points that what I was thinking as well and those totals would start heading south and east in the incoming days

[Frank_Wx]

is there something more encouraging set up wise that would make us think it should be cold enough and not suppressed?  Seems like the  this weekend's storm was never a good set up from the start, models never really showed anything good.  Could this set up be different for the better?

It is important to keep an eye on Friday's storm too. This weak system dampens heights enough to bring down a fresh batch of cold air in time for the Sunday storm. If this storm doesn't exist then it runs the risk of warmer scenarios for Sunday. But if it is too strong it pushes the baroclinic zone too far to the south and east which would keep the Sunday storm to our south

Frank what's your take on the pv press on each GFS ensemble run its has got stronger each time is that concern you at all. Your take on this thank you

These questions are similar. My take:



1. The -EPO/+PNA will work in tandem to produce an intense storm in the southern U.S. The upper energy associated with the sub tropical jet is going to be very strong. Even if this energy fails to phase with polar energy there will still be a powerful storm capable of dropping significant snow/ice from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Check out the ridge valid Saturday morning on the map above, and the already strong southern stream energy.

2. The PV east of the Hudson in Canada is important (reference map again). The tight thermal gradients across our area will promote 700mb frontogenesis. As the low pressure approaches from the S&E there will be overrunning precip that tries to develop. This would be the appetizer late Saturday before the main event on Sunday. Now, if this PV is too far south it could act to suppress heights along the east coast. With an anomalous -EPO ridge in the western Arctic there is a chance this could happen. However, this PV is lifting north just as the western ridge intensifies. Therefore, odds of suppression are less likely in this set-up. Instead, a system that is too strong and tries to cut to our west is more likely in my opinion.



3. Advancing to Sunday afternoon the western ridge is still in place. Remant northern energy left behind from the PV as it lifted north is now phasing into the trough over the eastern U.S. Even though the energy looks strung out, there is so much vorticity and instability in the atmosphere that allows multiple waves of low pressure to form along an arctic front. The main low pressure is forming in the south, and eventually does come up the coast, but the key will be the timing of when this low tries to come up the coast along the front that's formed.



4. This is a very impressive 250mb jet streak over New England Sunday morning. It argues for a storm track up the coast, with very impressive dynamics. This means even if someone starts as rain, chances are you're changing to snow at some point. But, Friday's weak system should dampen heights enough to usher in a freah batch of cold air. If it doesn't, then the dynamics of this system will pull the cold all the way to the coast.

This set-up is pretty complex actually. It is not your typical Miller A. This means plenty of new model solutions will mess with our heads this week. I would pay attention to these things:

1. Western ridge
2. Position of 250mb jet streak
3. Heights along the EC

If any of these 3 things trend negative our storm threat will be compromised. The state of the Stratosphere (warming occured nearly 3 weeks ago), and remants of an MJO in phase 8, argue for these features to be in our favor.

[jmanley32]

Sounds at least somewhat positive frank, thanks for the explanation, and I was interested to see you think a cutter is more likely than suppression versus others who have said no way to a cutter. That would really stink, when do you think you will start to get excited, i know deep down you are perked but I know theres so much that could happen for better or worse, do you think by midweek if these crazy runs continue you may start to honk the horn? LOL

[amugs]

Frank I argue against using the GFS for these such points, if you look at the EPS and GEFS the case for this storm argument is more positive than negative or should I say mostly positive.
I know things can go wrong  BUT the NAO and EPO/ PNA regions are trending much more favorably and look to do so. The cold arctic air that will entrench for this storm from the Friday storm will have 15:1 ratios plus from the looks.
One things is pretty certain the BRUTAL COLD that is coming from the SPV is insanely cold from NASA sites and data. The coldest air that has ever been recorded in the start since records have been kept dating back to the late 1950''s for the space program. You may say who cares but for a large swath of America this will have massive affects on our infrastructure and us humans. 
Temperatures highs negative digits is quite possible in some a colder area locals. GEFFS showing this possibility and lower temps.
From NWS is wow on th N wind chills this is what I mean
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1084632817219395585?s=19
The best for us weenies is yet to come! 
In rb we trust as we do.low solar!!

[amugs]

Shore folk may want to pay attention to the Full.Moon cycle upcoming Sun /Monday for astronomical high tidal flooding that could be exasperated by this coastal IF it comes to fruition
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1084605199245824000?s=19

[jmanley32]

I like your optimism mugs and you all make sense so I dunno who to believe lol, but the freakish cold will be no picnic (I highly doubt frank will be so careless to say who cares), it will make enjoying the snow very difficult if not impossible except from a window.  Cars will have trouble starting if at all, pipes will freeze up, schools may be closed for long duration as kids cannot be waiting at the bus stop in that.  But please lets at least get a blockbuster storm or two to go with the cold cuz if we have such severe temps and no snow I will lose it completely. LOL

My only request is that someone come and shovel my 2 cars out and often its a daily thing when parking, I have injured my shoulder and cannot do any kind of lifting or shoveling especially so I am kinda nervous about that part, all the more reason this storm will probably dump 3 feet on us. Oh I also have a trip planned to go to the casino in CT for Sunday so usually when I do so we get hit so there ya go lol, I am trying my best.

[SENJsnowman]

Looks like right from the start, coastal sections have to smell the rain! I'd might be tempted to sign on for a safe nice sized storm and call it day, but not the way it works near the ocean ha ha...higher qpfs and better longitude, but man is it warm.

If I was N and W, I'd be too scared to move a muscle for the next week. ha ha!!! I'm pretty sure that so far this winter, the storms have tended to wobble back to what the Euro said 7 days out to begin with.

[Sanchize06]

0z GFS looks to be coming in even a little south of 18z. Could be a big run for everyone

[Vinnydula]

What a monster!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just to lighten the mood the Canadian 0Z showing a cutter. Off on it's own right now and hopefully on crack.

[aiannone]

0z gfs is an I-95 special. But crushes the entire board

[aiannone]

[hyde345]

And there is another 12 hours of light to moderate snow after this too.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

0Z GFS, colder and further south. If we don't get ridiculous expectation wise, especially 7 days out, its a good run for  everyone. Also 10:1 ratios in this map. On this run the reality would be more like 15:1 and 20:1 in some spots north.

[jmanley32]

0Z GFS, colder and further south. If we don't get ridiculous expectation wise, especially 7 days out, its a good run for  everyone. Also 10:1 ratios in this map. On this run the reality would be more like 15:1 and 20:1 in some spots north.

Yep, this may have roidzilla potential (dare I say the highest is even possible if its extremely cold and qpf is as high as shown in some runs like Euro. Exciting to track whatever happens, but a win would be wonderful.

[jmanley32]

Gn all frank upped his chances to 15% already!

[skinsfan1177]

is there something more encouraging set up wise that would make us think it should be cold enough and not suppressed?  Seems like the  this weekend's storm was never a good set up from the start, models never really showed anything good.  Could this set up be different for the better?

It is important to keep an eye on Friday's storm too. This weak system dampens heights enough to bring down a fresh batch of cold air in time for the Sunday storm. If this storm doesn't exist then it runs the risk of warmer scenarios for Sunday. But if it is too strong it pushes the baroclinic zone too far to the south and east which would keep the Sunday storm to our south

Frank what's your take on the pv press on each GFS ensemble run its has got stronger each time is that concern you at all. Your take on this thank you

These questions are similar. My take:



1. The -EPO/+PNA will work in tandem to produce an intense storm in the southern U.S. The upper energy associated with the sub tropical jet is going to be very strong. Even if this energy fails to phase with polar energy there will still be a powerful storm capable of dropping significant snow/ice from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Check out the ridge valid Saturday morning on the map above, and the already strong southern stream energy.

2. The PV east of the Hudson in Canada is important (reference map again). The tight thermal gradients across our area will promote 700mb frontogenesis. As the low pressure approaches from the S&E there will be overrunning precip that tries to develop. This would be the appetizer late Saturday before the main event on Sunday. Now, if this PV is too far south it could act to suppress heights along the east coast. With an anomalous -EPO ridge in the western Arctic there is a chance this could happen. However, this PV is lifting north just as the western ridge intensifies. Therefore, odds of suppression are less likely in this set-up. Instead, a system that is too strong and tries to cut to our west is more likely in my opinion.



3. Advancing to Sunday afternoon the western ridge is still in place. Remant northern energy left behind from the PV as it lifted north is now phasing into the trough over the eastern U.S. Even though the energy looks strung out, there is so much vorticity and instability in the atmosphere that allows multiple waves of low pressure to form along an arctic front. The main low pressure is forming in the south, and eventually does come up the coast, but the key will be the timing of when this low tries to come up the coast along the front that's formed.



4. This is a very impressive 250mb jet streak over New England Sunday morning. It argues for a storm track up the coast, with very impressive dynamics. This means even if someone starts as rain, chances are you're changing to snow at some point. But, Friday's weak system should dampen heights enough to usher in a freah batch of cold air. If it doesn't, then the dynamics of this system will pull the cold all the way to the coast.

This set-up is pretty complex actually. It is not your typical Miller A. This means plenty of new model solutions will mess with our heads this week. I would pay attention to these things:

1. Western ridge
2. Position of 250mb jet streak
3. Heights along the EC

If any of these 3 things trend negative our storm threat will be compromised. The state of the Stratosphere (warming occured nearly 3 weeks ago), and remants of an MJO in phase 8, argue for these features to be in our favor.

Thanks Frank

[docstox12]

It is important to keep an eye on Friday's storm too. This weak system dampens heights enough to bring down a fresh batch of cold air in time for the Sunday storm. If this storm doesn't exist then it runs the risk of warmer scenarios for Sunday. But if it is too strong it pushes the baroclinic zone too far to the south and east which would keep the Sunday storm to our south

Before I read this post from Frank I thought the same thing.This weak system could ruin the set up for the weekend snowstorm.Hope I'm wrong.

[jmanley32]

Even bigger hit on 06z Gfs! Anyone else having trouble with weatherbell. I'm get 503 error not sure what means except server unavailable. Anyone see euro please tell me it was good.

[nutleyblizzard]

Euro came north and warmer last night. Snow to heavy rain. 4-6 inches around the area. EPS was south and colder than the OP.

[jmanley32]

Euro came north and warmer last night. Snow to heavy rain. 4-6 inches around the area. EPS was south and colder than the OP.  

no worries we are go see flips all week. Too early.

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