Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

[heehaw453]

Next week. PRIME SNOW TIME HISTORICALLY

LOL! 60 is quite possible for some on Tuesday.

[oldtimer]

Today on TWC the expert stated that the NWS backed off on the prediction two weeks ago of a very cold and snowy February He showed the PV was to stay locked over eastern half of the country. No more Retreating way north to Canada. The jet becomes W to E on the northern border Same result Very mild and wet

[Guest]

Today on TWC the expert stated that the NWS backed off on the prediction two weeks ago  of a very cold and snowy February  He showed the PV was to stay locked over eastern half of the country.  No more  Retreating way north to Canada.  The jet becomes W to E  on the northern border  Same result   Very mild and wet

ABSOLUTELY SHOCKED TO HEAR THIS. CANT BELIEVE IT

[Snow88]

February looks great after the 1st week on every model

[sroc4]

Today on TWC the expert stated that the NWS backed off on the prediction two weeks ago  of a very cold and snowy February  He showed the PV was to stay locked over eastern half of the country.  No more  Retreating way north to Canada.  The jet becomes W to E  on the northern border  Same result   Very mild and wet

With all do respect to the experts on TWC, but well see. Week one def warm, for reasons already stated, but by the 9th-12th not so sure. Need to watch the 11th

[Guest]

All kidding aside. What happened to an awesome
Cold
Snowy February. We’re looking at a torch next week
At least. Anyone?

[oldtimer]

Snow88 I played back that forecast 3 times I went word for word That new map looked like beginning of April I am stressed out about this winter Pray 2nd week and the rest of February is great for us to salvage something this year

[sroc4]

All kidding aside. What happened to an awesome
Cold
Snowy February. We’re looking at a torch next week
At least. Anyone?

Refer to my post from this morning at 8:24 on the prev page. This is why we are getting warm next week

[Guest]

All kidding aside. What happened to an awesome
Cold
Snowy February. We’re looking at a torch next week
At least. Anyone?

Refer to my post from this morning at 8:24 on the prev page.  This is why we are getting warm next week

Ok. Got it Scott good post

I appreciate your logical and warranted NON-OPTIMISM

Now another question/statement. It bothers me to keep reading on here from guys for months now that we HAVE HAD A PATTERN CHANGE. I say BS. The pattern in December was cold and dry and then rain and warmth. Same for January. Same coming up for February. THATBIS THE SAME PATTERN . IMHO (and I know others such as Doc agree) THE PACT THE MJO HAS SCREWED US IS THE PATTERN. IT HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE. THEREFORE JUST BECAUSE OTHER INDICIES OR ATMOSPHERIC DRIVERS HAVE TURNED FAVORABLE HAS DONE SQUAT

THAT MEANS THE PATTERN HAS NEVER CHANGED

i think to be real this narrative on here needs to be dropped

[sroc4]

All kidding aside. What happened to an awesome
Cold
Snowy February. We’re looking at a torch next week
At least. Anyone?

Refer to my post from this morning at 8:24 on the prev page.  This is why we are getting warm next week

Ok. Got it Scott good post

I appreciate your logical and warranted NON-OPTIMISM

Now another question/statement. It bothers me to keep reading on here from guys for months now that we HAVE HAD A PATTERN CHANGE. I say BS. The pattern in December was cold and dry and then rain and warmth. Same for January. Same coming up for February. THATBIS THE SAME PAO. IMHO (and I know others such as Doc agree) THE PACT THE MJO HAS SCREWED US IS THE PATTERN. IT HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE. THEREFORE JUST BECAUSE OTHER INDICIES ORDRIVERS HAVE TURNED FAVORABLE HAS DONE SQUAT

THAT MEANS THENPATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED

i think to be real this narrative on here needs to be dropped

Nope.  Your wrong.  The pattern has absolutely and unequivocally fundamentally changed from the first 2weeks in Dec through the first 2 weeks of Jan vs the last 2 weeks.  You not believing it doesnt change this fact.  I will not change that narrative because you dont believe it.  Here is the 500mb pattern from Dec 13th-Jan15th now look at the 500mb pattern from Jan 15th through present.  

You dont have to be a genius to see the differences.  

[Guest]

I didn’t mean you specifically needed to change the narrative. I meant everyone. IMHO your arguing semantics. The atmosphere and upper air patterns may have changed. WHO CARES. For us down here on earth in the tri state area NOTHING HAS CHANGED WEATHER WISE. NOTHING!!!!!!!
Dry and cold
Then warm and rain
Rinse wash repeat
Over and over for three months

Until that changes and our weather changes the pattern hasn’t! And we’re just about out of time. The only pattern that will change is winter to spring

[sroc4]

All kidding aside. What happened to an awesome
Cold
Snowy February. We’re looking at a torch next week
At least. Anyone?

Refer to my post from this morning at 8:24 on the prev page.  This is why we are getting warm next week

Ok. Got it Scott good post

I appreciate your logical and warranted NON-OPTIMISM

Now another question/statement. It bothers me to keep reading on here from guys for months now that we HAVE HAD A PATTERN CHANGE. I say BS. The pattern in December was cold and dry and then rain and warmth. Same for January. Same coming up for February. THATBIS THE SAME PAO. IMHO (and I know others such as Doc agree) THE PACT THE MJO HAS SCREWED US IS THE PATTERN. IT HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE. THEREFORE JUST BECAUSE OTHER INDICIES ORDRIVERS HAVE TURNED FAVORABLE HAS DONE SQUAT

THAT MEANS THENPATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED

i think to be real this narrative on here needs to be dropped

Nope.  Your wrong.  The pattern has absolutely and unequivocally fundamentally changed from the first 2weeks in Dec through the first 2 weeks of Jan vs the last 2 weeks.  You not believing it doesnt change this fact.  I will not change that narrative because you dont believe it.  Here is the 500mb pattern from Dec 13th-Jan15th now look at the 500mb pattern from Jan 15th through present.  

You dont have to be a genius to see the differences.  

Surface temps for the same periods:

[Guest]

Thanks for the surface pics. Zoom in. Our area is in the white on both!

[hyde345]

All kidding aside. What happened to an awesome
Cold
Snowy February. We’re looking at a torch next week
At least. Anyone?

Refer to my post from this morning at 8:24 on the prev page.  This is why we are getting warm next week

Ok. Got it Scott good post

I appreciate your logical and warranted NON-OPTIMISM

Now another question/statement. It bothers me to keep reading on here from guys for months now that we HAVE HAD A PATTERN CHANGE. I say BS. The pattern in December was cold and dry and then rain and warmth. Same for January. Same coming up for February. THATBIS THE SAME PATTERN . IMHO (and I know others such as Doc agree) THE PACT THE MJO HAS SCREWED US IS THE PATTERN. IT HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE. THEREFORE JUST BECAUSE OTHER INDICIES OR ATMOSPHERIC DRIVERS HAVE TURNED FAVORABLE HAS DONE SQUAT

[u]THAT MEANS THE PATTERN HAS NEVER CHANGED[/u]

i think to be real this narrative on here needs to be dropped

I'm not sure that the pattern didn't change. I got zero snow for 2 months since Nov. storm but have received 12.5 inches from 2 separate systems in the last 2 weeks with some extreme cold too. NYC metro and Long Island have been skunked so I understand the frustration.

[Guest]

Congratulations to you Hyde. Youre the 1%. There has been longer steroid colder weather and shorter stretches of warm. I’ll give you guys that. But the storm tracks and therefore imo “pattern” has not!

[mwilli5783]

i'm still by the adage"trust the process" i still think in february there's gonna be a major snowstorm,,long overdue

[amugs]

The snow deprivation is climaxing.
Yes has the winter sucked in these terms absolutely no one is denying this fact.
Has the pattern changed as Scott has pointed out absolutely for North America and Europe.
Have we been " just a bit outside" of theses storm's lately, yes. 
The destructive interference by the MJO in the warm phases in such moderate to strong amplitude has wrecked havoc. Yes. 
Did the PV split into 3 and affect us, yes. Did it hit and hold? No not as was forecasted. Did the dwonwelling take a few days loner than originally forecasted back I'm later Dec, yes. Do this wreck havoc amongst the models yes.
Listen we use models for guidance and sometimes the data they show is conflicting or at times wrong. 
We warm for a week and punt that part of Feb sad to say.
But please if you don't like what we are discusing here about the LR then add constructively to the discussion or don't chime in. 
Have you any idea what 20 miles is in a storm position between rain and snow? Or 3" and 12"? Absolutely minute in the jet stream of its planet. In the grand scheme it is nothing and there is nothing one can do. Sometimes a jog like that we don't see or can't forecast and it makes a huge difference. NEMO, JUNO, blizzard of 2017, etc. Between me and HV or LI and Conn etc. It just is what it is. The last two storms 20 miles NE of me here recieved about 5/6" of snow and 20 miles SE of me rained. 
The map and write up I made last night will be affecting our pattern the later part of next weekend from the information we have. 
The pattern has indeed changed but not to the snowy one wed all like , want and thought would be.
That is all for now.

[amugs]

MJO is heading in the direction as I spoke about last night from Isotherm map of the WWB or Rosby wave that Scott explained so much better than I did, kudos SROC!!

Moderate 8 to travel into 1


500 MB map of phase 8 - major trough in the east and ridge out west  that promotes storms and cold = snow


Okay from Masiello - Ural Blocking coming and this i what gave us the 2015 February!! Gosh darn Twitter tweet from him won't post - when he barks we listen - he is a guru at atmospheric wave breaks and high latitude patterns. Feb 8-10thish this start up.

[Guest]

Amugs are you serious?

If I don’t agree with the optimism then don’t chime in?  I thought this was a discussion board about weather on an Internet forum?  I didn’t know we had to either agree with you or else “not chime in”. Just because you don’t like to hear what I’m saying doesn’t mean I can’t say it. I’m not complaining in my last few posts. I’m pointing out my reasons why I feel the pattern has not changed. Heck in your own post you simultaneously post why you think it did citing several reasons and then IN THE SAME POST point out why it didn’t happen as was forecast!!. Cmon man. Does anyone on here tell you to not post your over the top blind optimism that doesn’t pan out?  
And yes I have an idea what a small difference in storm track. An do. That’s silly to insinuate.

IMHO the weather has not changed. The forecasted atmospheric pattern and drivers you all talk about HAVE NOT WORKED OUT AND HAVE NOT PRODUCED PERIOD!  This is fact. Look at the surface temp anamoly map Scott posted. We’ve stayed in the white or neutral.

If you don’t like my analysis fine. But don’t question my knowledge and don’t try to minimize my opposing point of view which the ACTUAL WEATHER HAS VALIDATED.

[Math23x7]

NOAA's long range outlook for February.

Temperature:



Precipitation:

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

-0.2°

In the words of of the immortal Rodeny King, can't we all just get along.

[sroc4]

Amugs are you serious?

If I don’t agree with the optimism then don’t chime in?  I thought this was a discussion board about weather on an Internet forum?  I didn’t know we had to either agree with you or else “not chime in”. Just because you don’t like to hear what I’m saying doesn’t mean I can’t say it. I’m not complaining in my last few posts. I’m pointing out my reasons why I feel the pattern has not changed. Heck in your own post you simultaneously post why you think it did citing several reasons and then IN THE SAME POST point out why it didn’t happen as was forecast!!. Cmon man. Does anyone on here tell you to not post your over the top blind optimism that doesn’t pan out?  
And yes I have an idea what a small difference in storm track. An do. That’s silly to insinuate.

IMHO the weather has not changed. The forecasted atmospheric pattern and drivers you all talk about HAVE NOT WORKED OUT AND HAVE NOT PRODUCED PERIOD!  This is fact. Look at the surface temp anamoly map Scott posted. We’ve stayed in the white or neutral.

If you don’t like my analysis fine. But don’t question my knowledge and don’t try to minimize my opposing point of view which the ACTUAL WEATHER HAS VALIDATED.

Lets stop bickering back and forth and take the time to learn something today.  This goes for everyone.  The semantics of if the pattern has changed or not is just silly.  Here are some basic facts when looking at the time frame from Dec 13th-Jan15th vs Jan 15th through present.  

1) The odds for a snow storm to affect most if not our entire area in the Dec time frame was slim to none
2) The last two weeks the odds of a snow storm increased drastically relative to the prev period
3) having crappy odd or great odds or anything in between does nothing to guarantee the outcome for which you may be looking for
4) The pattern has unequivocally changed between Dec 13th-Jan 15th and Jan 15th-present

These are facts.  Facts are not up for debate.  When you look at the images I posted yesterday of the 500mb pattern for the specified time frames without any knowledge of what your looking at you can plainly see things are very different.  But lets try and understand what your looking at.  

Below is the same images only zoomed in a tad to the North American view.  Lets start by reviewing what the 500mb level is about.  500mb represents roughly 18,000 feet above sea level in the atmosphere.  It is the main level that we look at to find the wind energy that governs the systems that develop at the surface.  Its at this level that we look at as the main steering level to these systems, although other levels will play a roll.  In addition to that the we look at this level to determine what our source region is for air that a storm will be influenced by.  The images I show above and below give a rough estimate or avg over the designated time frames where the 500mb ridges(HP=clockwise flow)) and troughs(LP=counterclockwise flow) have persisted, but at any given time they may not have been at this exact location.  From a very broad sense during the Dec time frame you can see that the avg steering flow was such that both the CONUS as well as Canada was inundated with Wam Pacific air, Gulf of Mexico air, and the Atlantic as the main source regions.  There really was no source region for cold air during this time frame.  Without the cold its virtually impossible to get snow.  However, over the last two weeks you can now clearly see by the second image the pattern of the steering levels has changed drastically.  The entire pacific flow has been cut off by a large scale ridge along the entire west coast of north America.  The source region east of the Rocky mountains is now the Atlantic as well as the polar and arctic regions.  





Now rememeber this level is the steering level for our surface storms.  You can see how in the last two weeks the mean flow is such that we now have a storm track that would tend to bring LP into the region, and there is a cold air source for these systems to produce snow.  We have had at least 3 systems that have produced significant snowfall into the NE.  The problem is is that the storm track has been too far to the west for OUR area to snow.  

Myself, and others have spoke at length about what we feel has been driving the pattern.  For me numero uno has been the MJO through warm phases with amplitude, and more recently the strat effects.  Additional facts.  The sudden stratospheric warming event(SSWE) that occurred late dec into early Jan is THE reason that the pattern has fundamentally changed.  It triggered a series of events beginning up in the stratosphere that has trickled down to the troposphere and cause the polar vortex to split into separate vortexes and shift to the lower latitudes.  While there are likely other smaller scale players, however, while our new pattern has produced cold air outbreaks, and several storms into our region, the single most influential reason the storm track has been a mere 30-130miles to far to the N&W, depending on how far W or E you live, has been the recycling of the MJO through the warm phases creating resistance against the cold. Back in early Sept I made a post discussing the possibilities of this upcoming season.  Specifically I commented on the SSTA set up across the equatorial Pac and indian ocean as being favorable to a recycling of the MJO in the cold phases of the MJO if the SSTA did not change.  Below is the link to that discussion along with an excerpt from it.

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t935p25-long-range-thread-17-0

Ill leave you with one last image.  Below is the current global SST anomalies.  In general where you see the large areas of warmer anomalies is where you would expect lower pressures due to rising warmer air.  The current configuration suggests that if this were to hold into the winter any MJO pulses would likely feedback on themselves in the more favorable phases for cold and snow for the East.  




The problem is that there were some changes to where the SSTA have set up as well as the strength of anomalies in certain areas resulting in the MJO recycling in the warm phases instead.  Simply stated when there is large scale rising air in one location you get large scale sinking motion in another.  Its the atmosphere attempting to achieve balance.  Look back above at the 500mb map I posted from Jan 15th-current.  The reason the warm phases are the warm phases is because when the MJO acts with large scale amplitude as it has in the warm phases, it leads to a stronger than normal Atlantic ridge as a down stream effect, again simply stated.  The stronger the MJO amplitude the stronger the down stream effects.  In this case the stronger that ridge is to push its way into the EC on its western flank agaisnt the cold push leading to the storm track we have seen.  I have the resistance labeled.    



While the pattern has 100% undergone a major shift and our odds at snow have increased dramatically, the SSTA in the Eq Pac and IO have not changed much; therefore, the propensity for the MJO waves to continue to flare up and traverse the warm phases has not shifted either.  

Moving forward I ask that we stop arguing semantics about the pattern.  It has changed, and our odds of snow have dramatically increased. Unfort despite the increased odds it hasn't paid off for most due to the aforementioned MJO reason.  IF or WHEN the MJO decreases in amplitude and/or it moves into more favorable phases that resistance to our east relaxes and our storm track should shift east if there aren't any other factors at play.  That said we still need the pieces to come together at the right time, which means even though the odds go up it does not guarantee that you get snow in your back yard or that we get a storm while the MJO is in a favorable phase.  The Aresian if your reading where are you at with snow totals.  You of all people who post on this board have probably done the best in Jan.

[nutleyblizzard]

Amugs are you serious?

If I don’t agree with the optimism then don’t chime in?  I thought this was a discussion board about weather on an Internet forum?  I didn’t know we had to either agree with you or else “not chime in”. Just because you don’t like to hear what I’m saying doesn’t mean I can’t say it. I’m not complaining in my last few posts. I’m pointing out my reasons why I feel the pattern has not changed. Heck in your own post you simultaneously post why you think it did citing several reasons and then IN THE SAME POST point out why it didn’t happen as was forecast!!. Cmon man. Does anyone on here tell you to not post your over the top blind optimism that doesn’t pan out?  
And yes I have an idea what a small difference in storm track. An do. That’s silly to insinuate.

IMHO the weather has not changed. The forecasted atmospheric pattern and drivers you all talk about HAVE NOT WORKED OUT AND HAVE NOT PRODUCED PERIOD!  This is fact. Look at the surface temp anamoly map Scott posted. We’ve stayed in the white or neutral.

If you don’t like my analysis fine. But don’t question my knowledge and don’t try to minimize my opposing point of view which the ACTUAL WEATHER HAS VALIDATED.

THIS!  

I agree 100%.  

If you don't agree with the select few on this board then you are expected to be quiet.  

The fawning over certain posters borders on creepy.  

Anthony is that you???

[algae888]

Here's some more facts most of the country is above normal snowfall wise as of February 1st except the Philly to Red Sox Suck corridor. There are actually places well above normal including the Carolinas and Central and Northern New England which are having a banner year. January just came in with a normal temperature Departure. We should have had more than one inch of snow in Central Park. The bottom line is we were just unlucky. The opportunities were there.

[Guest]

Scott I copied and pasted This from your post

Moving forward I ask that we stop arguing semantics about the pattern. It has changed, and our odds of snow have dramatically increased. Unfort despite the increased odds it hasn't paid off for most due to the aforementioned MJO reason. IF or WHEN the MJO decreases in amplitude and/or it moves into more favorable phases that resistance to our east relaxes and our storm track should shift east if there aren't any other factors at play. That said we still need the pieces to come together at the right time, which means even

I agree the MJO has been the problem. My argument is that aThe same MJO is part of the pattern. And since it has not changed I personally find it wrong to say the pattern has changed. .

Here’s my analogy. There is traffic between certain exits on the highway because of a construction pattern. Construction is scheduled To end any day now for 3 months but it doesn’t. Then once the construction moves to another location certain pieces are left behind causing the SAME TRAFFIC. Is that not still construction leading to traffic at the same
Locations?

[sroc4]

 Scott I copied and pasted This from your post

Moving forward I ask that we stop arguing semantics about the pattern.  It has changed, and our odds of snow have dramatically increased. Unfort despite the increased odds it hasn't paid off for most due to the aforementioned MJO reason.  IF or WHEN the MJO decreases in amplitude and/or it moves into more favorable phases that resistance to our east relaxes and our storm track should shift east if there aren't any other factors at play.  That said we still need the pieces to come together at the right time, which means even

I agree the MJO has been the problem. My argument is that aThe same MJO is part of the pattern. And since it has not changed I personally find it wrong to say the pattern has changed. .

Here’s my analogy. There is traffic between certain exits on the highway because of a construction pattern.  Construction is scheduled To end any day now for 3 months but it doesn’t. Then once the construction moves to another location certain pieces are left behind causing the SAME TRAFFIC. Is that not still construction leading to traffic at the same
Locations?

I would say no.  Here is why.  The MJO was the primary driver, before the Strat warming event.  However, the resultant effects of the SSWE are now the primary driver with secondary effects from the MJO.  The result of the SSWE has shifted the pattern to drive cold air into the lower lats. but the MJO is still pushing back.  The bigger the push of cold the bigger the reflexive snap back to warm so long as the MJO is still in the middle of the warm phases with amplitude.
It was bullied out of the way by the PV but as soon as the PV moves out the warm snapps back because of the strength of push as seen by the amplitude of the MJO.  Thats why we reflex back up to like 50's this week.

Using your traffic pattern analogy I would say the pattern before was like the Cross Bronx Expressway on an given weekday at 5pm without construction(or any time for that mater).  Even without an accident your going to sit in bumber to bumper from the Throgs neck all the way onto the GWB.  The pattern now is like headed east on the LI expressway at 9am on a Sunday am.  Smooth sailing until you get to exit 61 where for some reason there is the construction that has narrowed down the 4 lanes to 2 for 1 exit.  Smooth sailing leading up to it and smooth sailing after it, but you get resistance for just a small time.  The longer the MJO stays in the shitty phases the more the build up of traffic.  However, as soon as the lanes open up again, MJO moves into favorable phases we should in relatively short order restore normal traffic.

[sroc4]

Can these be any more polar opposite??

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