Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

[maxwell12103]

Thanks all of you guys for your perspective! My hobby's weather dependence and my weather literacy are definitely not aligned, hah! Will be keeping an eye on this forum for the next couple weeks as winter hopefully winds down.

[algae888]

I should also add there is another system late Saturday and Saturday night so that makes four over the next eight days let's see how we can fail with these

[mwilli]

algae if this major storm comes thru at least we can salvage the winter season(boring)and finally hear the "m"word...then its on to baseball

[amugs]

WOW does March look cold like a lion!!


AND WOW JMAN!!
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Current peak wind is 171mph! Surpassing the previous February wind record (166 MPH set in 1972). #NHwx #wind #mountain

4:10 PM - 25 Feb 2019

Good solid call - Thursday Clipper

[sroc4]

WOW does March look cold like a lion!!


AND WOW JMAN!!
MWObservatory
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Current peak wind is 171mph! Surpassing the previous February wind record (166 MPH set in 1972). #NHwx #wind #mountain

4:10 PM - 25 Feb 2019

Good solid call - Thursday Clipper

Going to likely need to extend the 2-4" line south from that map.

[sroc4]

WOW does March look cold like a lion!!


AND WOW JMAN!!
MWObservatory
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@MWObs
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Current peak wind is 171mph! Surpassing the previous February wind record (166 MPH set in 1972). #NHwx #wind #mountain

4:10 PM - 25 Feb 2019

Good solid call - Thursday Clipper

Going to likely need to extend the 2-4" line south from that map.

And just like that models trended opposite of the map I drew.

[heehaw453]

The window 3/4 - 3/6. Can we get a coasal BM track? Most guidance says no currently. Maybe that is a good thing as anything beyond 5 days has been less than accurate.

Cold seems to be more certain though.

[dkodgis]

I am reading that in March we will see really cold air come in. Is anyone reading that as well? There has to be some moisture to work with if there is a cold stretch. However, I do see skunk cabbage starting to come up in the woods, and I often hear the peepers mid-March so we will see what kind of hurting Mother Nature can put to us in the next couple of weeks. Skunk cabbage and peepers are my key informants about spring coming.

[crippo84]

One day we hear March will warm up after the first week. The next we hear it's expected to be cold. As this winter has shown, the long range can't really be trusted. Probably best not to speculate too much at this point.

[sroc4]

One day we hear March will warm up after the first week.  The next we hear it's expected to be cold.  As this winter has shown, the long range can't really be trusted.  Probably best not to speculate too much at this point.

With the MJO doing what its doing expect the next 10-14 days to avg below normal. Confidence level = moderate to high with that statement

And early next week the potential for a significant snowfall exists

[crippo84]

One day we hear March will warm up after the first week.  The next we hear it's expected to be cold.  As this winter has shown, the long range can't really be trusted.  Probably best not to speculate too much at this point.

With the MJO doing what its doing expect the next 10-14 days to avg below normal.  Confidence level = moderate to high with that statement

And early next week the potential for a significant snowfall exists

Thanks Scott. Always appreciate and trust your guidance. I know many have given up and thrown in the towel, but I can't get over going through winter without one significant snow chance to track. Hoping for the best next week.

[sroc4]

One day we hear March will warm up after the first week.  The next we hear it's expected to be cold.  As this winter has shown, the long range can't really be trusted.  Probably best not to speculate too much at this point.

With the MJO doing what its doing expect the next 10-14 days to avg below normal.  Confidence level = moderate to high with that statement

And early next week the potential for a significant snowfall exists

Thanks Scott.  Always appreciate and trust your guidance.  I know many have given up and thrown in the towel, but I can't get over going through winter without one significant snow chance to track. Hoping for the best next week.

You bet and thanks.  I myself have thrown in the towel a long time ago, but that doesnt mean we still cant get something to come through.  Regardless of how the past has gone one always has to remain objective about the present and future.  MJO rounding through cold phases for this time of year(see below). Both GEFS and EURO ens are for the first time in a long time in agreement regarding this. SOI is cooperating.






Side note.  I really have not done much in depth analysis of the overall pattern so while I am pretty confident in the BN temps coming up Im not nearly as confident yet about the significant snow threats.  That said the look to the pattern on the GFS and Euro ensemble mean makes me think that the blocking into Alaska, but also into NW Canada will force the TPV far enough into SE Canada to prevent anything coming out of the south from cutting.  There also seems to be just enough higher heights in the N Atlantic to potentially allow the N and southern streams to phase leading to an actual Nor Eatser type set up here for early next week with this look.  I "like" the look, but dont love the look.  As per usual timing is everything. Fingers crossed, ice cubes in toilet.

[heehaw453]

One day we hear March will warm up after the first week.  The next we hear it's expected to be cold.  As this winter has shown, the long range can't really be trusted.  Probably best not to speculate too much at this point.

With the MJO doing what its doing expect the next 10-14 days to avg below normal.  Confidence level = moderate to high with that statement

And early next week the potential for a significant snowfall exists

Thanks Scott.  Always appreciate and trust your guidance.  I know many have given up and thrown in the towel, but I can't get over going through winter without one significant snow chance to track. Hoping for the best next week.

You bet and thanks.  I myself have thrown in the towel a long time ago, but that doesnt mean we still cant get something to come through.  Regardless of how the past has gone one always has to remain objective about the present and future.  MJO rounding through cold phases for this time of year(see below).   Both GEFS and EURO ens are for the first time in a long time in agreement regarding this. SOI is cooperating.






Side note.  I really have not done much in depth analysis of the overall pattern so while I am pretty confident in the BN temps coming up Im not nearly as confident yet about the significant snow threats.  That said the look to the pattern on the GFS and Euro ensemble mean makes me think that the blocking into Alaska, but also into NW Canada will force the TPV far enough into SE Canada to prevent anything coming out of the south from cutting.  There also seems to be just enough higher heights in the N Atlantic to potentially allow the N and southern streams to phase leading to an actual Nor Eatser type set up here for early next week with this look.  I "like" the look, but dont love the look.  As per usual timing is everything.  Fingers crossed, ice cubes in toilet.  

Nice write up! Somewhat of a progressive flow, so there is somewhat of a limit to what we'll get regardless of how this plays out. There are a lot of pieces of energy over the next several days, so I expect some swings and think this is a 72 hour lead time kind of deal before we have a better grasp on the threat. So in short trust nothing just yet, but do believe this has a ceiling.

[hyde345]

WWA just issued in Dutchess county for 3-5 inches Wednesday night. I'm thinking more like 2-3 but I'll take it.

[jmanley32]

When are we looking at for potential bid storm and by big Godzilla potential or 6 inches which for this year is I guess considered big lol. More likely next Monday or wed? I know its really far out but is the time frame still that big?

[amugs]

Jan no one knows at this time. The models have so many pieces of energy swinging under the TV pinwheels it comes to to spacing, Atlantic help and PAC PNA Ridge. Could Monday be it? Wed? Or after as an Archumbault event possibly. The Scan blog kretrograe is not as pronounced, of course as a NAO block it was showing in the Med range. So goes this winter.
The models will not have things sorts out possibly 12 or 18 hours before the storm is to hit. Ju st my opinion here. Do we have chances yes, a godzI'll not seeing it at the time but as he eh haw said we have a ceiling limit to our snowstorms unless we get solid blocking on the Atlantic side. 
Cold is here till.about mid.month. let's hope we can get some good moisture to dance with it.

[skinsfan1177]

Im holding my expectations in check and for good reason the pattern has not been good for snow all season and their is no reason for me to change that thought. Euro on board for something but lets be honest when isn't showing a fantasy digital snow bomb. Nothing else on board yet. I will track bc that's what we do

[heehaw453]

The NAM is still trying to sell 1-3" of snow on Friday especially from 195 points south. I would have thought it'd given that up by now. There is just not much support for it.

[heehaw453]

I'm going to just pretend the Icon is right at 110 hour out.  LOL.  I am starting get more confident though in a coastal storm.  Have no idea about mixing/slop , but you should at least realize it's a possibility.

[heehaw453]

12Z GFS looks very similar to the Icon.  The track of the low will be critical to the temperatures as always.  Based on this there would be a limit to how far north it gets before going off the coast. Don't see this as being Godzilla, but maybe a step below that is possible. Getting down to the wire here, so I'm trying to root for this.

[rb924119]

I agree with @earthlight here; the -EPO is not the be-all end-all for snow storms along the East Coast. Sure, it helps, but you need other factors to work constructively as well, and in this case, we do not that enough of that for things to work out on a large scale for our area (in my opinion). I haven’t been enthused with any of these threats for quite some time, and remain unenthused for the time being.

[heehaw453]

I agree with @earthlight here; the -EPO is not the be-all end-all for snow storms along the East Coast. Sure, it helps, but you need other factors to work constructively as well, and in this case, we do not that enough of that for things to work out on a large scale for our area (in my opinion). I haven’t been enthused with any of these threats for quite some time, and remain unenthused for the time being.

rb do you mean you are concerned about track and warm air? Or something else?

[sroc4]

I agree with @earthlight here; the -EPO is not the be-all end-all for snow storms along the East Coast. Sure, it helps, but you need other factors to work constructively as well, and in this case, we do not that enough of that for things to work out on a large scale for our area (in my opinion). I haven’t been enthused with any of these threats for quite some time, and remain unenthused for the time being.

I am actually going to respectfully disgree with you and Earthlight JH on this one. Forget "-EPO" and look at the evolution and progression of the ridging in the Alaska/NW Canada region for late Sat through late Sunday into Monday. I def believe there is probably the best potential all winter for cyclogenesis along the coast.
Im not talking about a crawler that can dump 12-24", but a 6-12"+ event is possible. Dont ask about in your back yard yet folks as exact track makes all the difference here. Hopefully I will have maps labeled etc later hopefully to show more of my thinking here. It will come down to timing of two key pieces of energy. 1 involving a spoke on the TPV wheel(steering energy), and 2 the other being the Pac energy entering the West coast of California on Saturday(our system). Also there is a rule, and its not a hardened fast rule, but a rule that states where the energy enters the west coast look for the energy to exit the EC on a similar Latitude.

[heehaw453]

I agree with @earthlight here; the -EPO is not the be-all end-all for snow storms along the East Coast. Sure, it helps, but you need other factors to work constructively as well, and in this case, we do not that enough of that for things to work out on a large scale for our area (in my opinion). I haven’t been enthused with any of these threats for quite some time, and remain unenthused for the time being.

I am actually going to respectfully disgree with you and Earthlight JH on this one.  Forget "-EPO" and look at the evolution and progression of the ridging in the Alaska/NW Canada region for late Sat through late Sunday into Monday.  I def believe there is probably the best potential all winter for cyclogenesis along the coast.
Im not talking about a crawler that can dump 12-24", but a 6-12"+ event is possible.  Dont ask about in your back yard yet folks as exact track makes all the difference here.    Hopefully I will have maps labeled etc later hopefully to show more of my thinking here.   It will come down to timing of two key pieces of energy. 1 involving a spoke on the TPV wheel(steering energy), and 2 the other being the Pac energy entering the West coast of California on Saturday(our system).   Also there is a rule, and its not a hardened fast rule, but a rule that states where the energy enters the west coast look for the energy to exit the EC on a similar Latitude.  

I agree and do think there is a coastal that will occur.  Track will determine whether it's another disappointment or not.  Guidance yesterday had suppressed solutions and today they are BM and inside BM.  My guess is this will vacillate for another 2 days before we can nail that track down.  But at 100+ hours out 150 mile swings are still quite possible.

[SENJsnowman]

The NAM is still trying to sell 1-3" of snow on Friday especially from 195 points south.  I would have thought it'd given that up by now.  There is just not much support for it.

Actually a few models like that possibility. I'm in no way advocating for any of them, but for the sake of convo:

NAM keeps the lp center like 200 miles SE of NJ, but drops 1-3" of all snow with an expansive NE precip shield.

The CMC brings the LP up the coast, with a 1-3" front end of thump to most of the forum, before changing to all rain.

And the NAVGEM indicated several hours of snow for southern NJ more in line with the NAM, a glancing blow on the northern edge of a system.

A system that all 3 of these models have bringing an easy 6"+ of white gold to Maryland and Northern Virginia...again! lol!  


GFS gives it no shot from the start.

[heehaw453]

The NAM is still trying to sell 1-3" of snow on Friday especially from 195 points south.  I would have thought it'd given that up by now.  There is just not much support for it.

Actually a few models like that possibility. I'm in no way advocating for any of them, but for the sake of convo:

NAM keeps the lp center like 200 miles SE of NJ, but drops 1-3" of all snow with an expansive NE precip shield.

The CMC brings the LP up the coast, with a 1-3" front end of thump to most of the forum, before changing to all rain.

And the NAVGEM indicated several hours of snow for southern NJ more in line with the NAM, a glancing blow on the northern edge of a system.

A system that all 3 of these models have bringing an easy 6"+ of white gold to Maryland and Northern Virginia...again! lol!  


GFS gives it no shot from the start.

I think the latest SREF is now inline with 12Z NAM. It definitely has been ticking north on most guidance today.

[SENJsnowman]

Short range at this point. These northern fringe events for southern NJ/PA has been a trend for the past 6 weeks. A trend of duck fart snow storms, but a trend nonetheless.

See what happens...

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