Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System

Folks,

Lets start the thread and see what comes about but this is look good at this juncture 96 hours out:

EPS - honking on this


A nice 2-3" rush hour headache and D.O. for schools - Delayed Openings.

Oh and they will pour gallons upon gallons of brine and pounds of salt on the roads.

This system will set up our weekend system.

LR SREFS

0z NAM rolling now

Looks cold

NAM don't toy with me and nail this one for us!??

If that is correct it is a good look

Yeah. This could be a nice surprise. 0Z NAM cold at mid levels and even surface. 2-4" not out of the question.

1-2" area wide on the NAM

NAM seems consistent with last GFS runs as well. I think this system brings us a good shot of snow between midnight and 7 or 8 am. Won’t be heavy but with the ground below freezing and it coming in at night when temps will be cold I think even a light to moderate snow for several hours can get us 2 or 3” right into the AM rush. Also part of this wave originated off the Pacific coast and comes east from the Plains (maybe pick up a little Gulf moisture?). I like that look better than clippers diving south from Alberta that tend to be moisture starved.

We all know from November that it doesn’t take a ton of snow to cause some headaches if timing is right. This could be right around the AM rush.

billg315 wrote:We all know from November that it doesn’t take a ton of snow to cause some headaches if timing is right. This could be right around the AM rush.

yeah but unlike Nov at least here like someone said if there's a shot of a flurry we have more Salk accumulation than snow this year. The roads are white with salt for a while now and not even any real rain. Isn't that stuff bad for the environment? They better watch it or watch they run out just before a big late season storm.

And I would most definitely look forward to a delay Friday though my early intervention school doesn't start until 9am for the kids but some come from far so it all depends on the busses and their decision.

NAM is all snow but lighter amounts (about an inch area wide). GFS has a little more moisture but ends it as rain after daybreak. I’m still thinking a couple inches is doable with this.

JMan, the way they close schools today I would never rule out a delay for even a minor system like this. Lol. When I was a kid needed at least 4 or 5” to close or delay. A 1-2” snow meant walking to school in the snow. Uphill. Man, now I sound old. Haha.

And I’ve wondered the same thing about all this salting of roads for no apparent reason since the Nov 15 storm: If we have a March-April like last year will they have any salt/brine left?

Here is the GFS upper air map valid Thursday night. Notice the potent southern stream energy over Tennessee.



Fast forward to Friday morning and this same energy is sheered out off the coast of Delaware, and there is some northern stream energy (very weak) also sweeping through. That is your clipper at the surface.



The northern energy is a bit more robust on the NAM



It looks like a C-2" type of event. We will see if it trends stronger over the next 2 days, but the fast pace of the flow would suggest the answer is no. There is no blocking. Also notice, as this storm trended weaker our coastal storm on Sunday trended more west / warmer. There is a legitimate reason for that...

How come no GFS SNOW MAP at 6Z- has Mikey gotten to you LOL!!



2-3/4" certainly possible in the hills of NNJ and LHV/HV.

RGEM - shows a 1-3" for the same areas I mentioned above, City is coating

6Z Euro compliments of AllSnow 33&rain
Colder

The fun starts:

amugs wrote:6Z Euro compliments of AllSnow 33&rain
Colder

It will be a decent event for those N&W of NYC. For the city itself and the coastal plain not so much.

But at least it is something.

Yeah, I think my bias on this is that my area is solidly going to be in the 1-3" category, but I could see where, as Frank points out, the immediate coast and city proper don't get much.

billg315 wrote:Yeah, I think my bias on this is that my area is solidly going to be in the 1-3" category, but I could see where, as Frank points out, the immediate coast and city proper don't get much.

Absolutely. 2-4" NWNJ, LHV and EPA and 1-3" NNJ

12z NAM all snow event from about midnight Thursday to midday Friday. Generally 1-3” in NJ although closer to just an inch on immediate coast and NYC proper.

Frank_Wx wrote:

amugs wrote:6Z Euro compliments of AllSnow 33&rain
Colder

It will be a decent event for those N&W of NYC. For the city itself and the coastal plain not so much.

But at least it is something.

I’ve been logged off but following due to my INSANE ANGER AND FRUSTRATION AT THIS WINTER. This threat and Franks comment just cements my decision. This is a joke and trending weakened which screws us for the weekend. But it’s coming.....