Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System

12z NAM all snow event from about midnight Thursday to midday Friday. Generally 1-3” in NJ although closer to just an inch on immediate coast and NYC proper.

Frank_Wx wrote:

amugs wrote:6Z Euro compliments of AllSnow 33&rain
Colder

It will be a decent event for those N&W of NYC. For the city itself and the coastal plain not so much.

But at least it is something.

I’ve been logged off but following due to my INSANE ANGER AND FRUSTRATION AT THIS WINTER. This threat and Franks comment just cements my decision. This is a joke and trending weakened which screws us for the weekend. But it’s coming.....

The 12z NAM was all snow for the area. A general 1-2"

18z NAM very weak for the thursday night-fri storm. Bodes well for the weekend i believe

aiannone wrote:18z NAM very weak for the thursday night-fri storm. Bodes well for the weekend i believe

It does not

But it's ok - the changes happening in the Pacific are more important than any trends that happen with this Clipper.

Frank_Wx wrote:

aiannone wrote:18z NAM very weak for the thursday night-fri storm. Bodes well for the weekend i believe

It does not

But it's ok - the changes happening in the Pacific are more important than any trends that happen with this Clipper.

Ohh, so we want a stronger system?

And BTW the 18z NAM was all snow NNJ, NYC, LI

aiannone wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

aiannone wrote:18z NAM very weak for the thursday night-fri storm. Bodes well for the weekend i believe

It does not

But it's ok - the changes happening in the Pacific are more important than any trends that happen with this Clipper.

Ohh, so we want a stronger system?

Stronger system drags the baroclinic zone further south. That’s what we want

syosnow94 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

aiannone wrote:18z NAM very weak for the thursday night-fri storm. Bodes well for the weekend i believe

It does not

But it's ok - the changes happening in the Pacific are more important than any trends that happen with this Clipper.

Ohh, so we want a stronger system?

Stronger system drags the baroclinic zone further south. That’s what we want

Makes sense! thanks for the explanation

0z nam running for thursday night-friday now

Jeez nam is very different. barely gets snow in for friday lol

Ultimately looks roughly unchanged. About a 1-2” event for most.

Nan looks good

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all snow again

Looks like about 10 hours of light snow, maybe with a heavier burst or two at times. The light nature will keep totals down but with frozen ground everything that falls is sticking from the get-go.

So NAM is consistently all snow and GFS is consistently all rain for the entire area except extreme NNJ

6z NAM and GFS both have more moisture with this. NAM is all snow and actually gets almost 3” in parts of far NWNJ/NEPA. GFS is snow for a few hours for everyone at start but ends as rain after daybreak in the city and along the coast while staying snow N and W. Still looks like a general 1-2”with some morning commute issue particularly N and W of the city.

Here is Uptons take on this system.  Yest they called for a change over for plain rain "for coastal sections" whereas this am they word it as "far eastern sections".  

Fast moving system via the southern branch of the jet stream will
provide a taste of winter to begin the period. In general good model
agreement with precip timing, with the NAM still dragging its heels
a bit with precip onset. Ptype looks to be mainly snow through
Thursday night with a change over for to plain rain for far eastern
sections perhaps just before 12z Fri.  The timing works out that the
Friday morning commute will be impacted to some degree with cold
ground temperatures to start so snow should stick on most surfaces.
For now thinking a general 1 to 2 inch snowfall, with less than an
inch far east, and perhaps in the 2 to 3 inch range in far
northwestern sections. The lift is not impressive with this system
as the southern branch energy is not consolidated well as there is
little backing in the mid levels to support liquid precipitation
amounts over a quarter inch.  Therefore it makes sense that the
modeling by and large has lowered its QPF output over the past
couple of runs.  The precipitation will change to plain rain as
warmer air noses in from the southeast in the lower levels during
Friday morning before it moves out shortly thereafter.  Most places
should completely dry out by the late morning and towards lunch time
on Friday, with high pressure to follow briefly for Friday night into
early Saturday.

I disagree Scott. They are still calling for a change to rain and a rainy morning except for N and W

syosnow94 wrote:I disagree Scott. They are still calling for a change to rain and a rainy morning except for N and W

Ummmmmm a sphincter says what?  12z Friday is about 7am.  So with the exception of far eastern zones as stated Upton is calling for light snow to fall until approx. that time.  By then the bulk of whats falling from this system, which isnt much QPF, is likely done.  You read it differently?  


Fast moving system via the southern branch of the jet stream will
provide a taste of winter to begin the period. In general good model
agreement with precip timing, with the NAM still dragging its heels
a bit with precip onset. Ptype looks to be mainly snow through
Thursday night with a change over for to plain rain for far eastern
sections perhaps just before 12z Fri. The timing works out that the
Friday morning commute will be impacted to some degree with cold
ground temperatures to start so snow should stick on most surfaces.
For now thinking a general 1 to 2 inch snowfall, with less than an
inch far east, and perhaps in the 2 to 3 inch range in far
northwestern sections. The lift is not impressive with this system
as the southern branch energy is not consolidated well as there is
little backing in the mid levels to support liquid precipitation
amounts over a quarter inch.  Therefore it makes sense that the
modeling by and large has lowered its QPF output over the past
couple of runs.  The precipitation will change to plain rain as
warmer air noses in from the southeast in the lower levels during
Friday morning before it moves out shortly thereafter.  Most places
should completely dry out by the late morning and towards lunch time
on Friday,

I read the last few sentences as a change to rain. Hopefully I’m wrong and by the time it does there’s not much qpf left

The appetizer - and last night as I pointed out the trough sharpened at the 500mb level which is better for the storm - gonna surprise a few folks.

John Elliot just said this morning on 101.1 CBS radio - I think 2-3" for NNJ Suburbs with a possibly change to icy mix as yuo get closer to teh city and eastern LI would change to rain.

This s scalled CAD at work here folks and just wait till Monday morning - YIKES!!

My first snow map of the winter season for an innocent little clipper. I am going to keep the SCI at 30% for NYC to see at least 1" of snow.

If that’s gonna be the case for me Frank then Can Inpass?

No dessert unless you have your supper first, Syo.

TheAresian wrote:No dessert unless you have your supper first, Syo.

Supper? This is like a half of of cracker

Just look at it like you're saving space for later.