Re: Snow Events Week of 02/17

by **heehaw453** Sun Feb 17, 2019 10:13 am

The 12Z NAM would be a 4-6” thump of snow on Wednesday along and NW of 95 before tainting. Probably never getting above freezing NW of 95.

by **hyde345** Sun Feb 17, 2019 10:59 am

WWA for Dutchess tonight for 2-5 inches. Any snow is good snow.

by **rb924119** Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:30 am

hyde345 wrote:WWA for Dutchess tonight for 2-5 inches. Any snow is good snow.

Saw that haha I think they’re nuts lol coating-2”/1-3” sounds much more reasonable imo, but we’ve been through all this already lmao

by **rb924119** Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:33 am

SENJsnowman wrote:As for tonight's event, it looks like only perhaps the southern tier of NY State is in a good position to exceed an inch or two. WLHV looks to do better than ELHV. And other wise, the snow will not enter the NYC metro, New Jersey or EPA at any cost. Not the result you would hope for with a LP sitting right on top of the bm.

As for the mid-week threat, not looking much better. I think it was Algae who mentioned the perfect high pressure blocking to north:

And now, that high has moved into just as terrible of a position for us (and one that I've never seen before actually):

The latest Nam stops here, but it's clearly the same result:

Looking like more of the same...

Nice post! Looks like your thinking from earlier had merit Smile

by **amugs** Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:41 am

It's 1-3" for NNJ tonight starting around 9pmish. NYC sees maybe a coating.
Morning commute gonna be an issue up here.
RGEM is off the rails with this map for the LHV and into CT
Will it nail this event?? Transition to sleet of course

Snow Events Week of 02/17 - Page 2 Rgem_a12

Wed is going to be interesting.

by **jimv45** Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:46 am

Yes hyde any snow is welcome,2-5 is a good bet. I will take anything at this point.

by **dkodgis** Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:48 am

Mugs, when does "interesting" start on Wed

by **hyde345** Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:53 am

rb924119 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:WWA for Dutchess tonight for 2-5 inches. Any snow is good snow.

Saw that haha I think they’re nuts lol coating-2”/1-3” sounds much more reasonable imo, but we’ve been through all this already lmao

Not according to Nam and Rgem. They both have 3-4 inches IMBY. GFS and CMC also have decent amounts. Not sure why you are saying they are nuts. They expect highest totals of 5 inches or so in Eastern Catskills. 2-4 inches for remainder of region is certainly a reasonable forecast given latest guidance.

by **jimv45** Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:56 am

rb you say coating to 2 or 1-3 with Albany saying 2-5 so if my math is correct if we get 2 that's in there range!! not so nuts Very Happy

. And this winter hoping for 2 inches is pretty sad.

by **billg315** Sun Feb 17, 2019 12:58 pm

The NAM did the best either the thermals on last weeks storm and seems to be hinting at a repeat this Wednesday. Which is to say a brief start as snow, then a fairly long period of sleet before ending as rain event. GFS goes warmer faster, more rain less mix. Since the NAM has handled this setup better I’d go with it for the Wednesday storm at this point. Neither is a setup I’m particularly enthused about. I had my fill of sleet and wintry mix last week.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:26 pm

rb924119 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:WWA for Dutchess tonight for 2-5 inches. Any snow is good snow.

Saw that haha I think they’re nuts lol coating-2”/1-3” sounds much more reasonable imo, but we’ve been through all this already lmao

I'm confused by this post. 2-5 inches seems right in the ballpark around the HV for this system. I would think most areas 40 miles north of NYC see 3-5. I'm sure you have sound reasoning so I guess we find out tomorrow who's right.

by **rb924119** Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:34 pm

jimv45 wrote:rb you say coating to 2 or 1-3 with Albany saying 2-5 so if my math is correct if we get 2 that's in there range!! not so nuts . And this winter hoping for 2 inches is pretty sad.

Ayeee, your logic is undeniable haha but my point was that their forecast is biased high, in my opinion.

by **rb924119** Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:37 pm

hyde345 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:WWA for Dutchess tonight for 2-5 inches. Any snow is good snow.

Saw that haha I think they’re nuts lol coating-2”/1-3” sounds much more reasonable imo, but we’ve been through all this already lmao

Not according to Nam and Rgem. They both have 3-4 inches IMBY. GFS and CMC also have decent amounts. Not sure why you are saying they are nuts. They expect highest totals of 5 inches or so in Eastern Catskills. 2-4 inches for remainder of region is certainly a reasonable forecast given latest guidance.

See my earlier post regarding my “issues” with this system. That should help clarify a bit......hopefully lol if not, you know you can always follow up Smile

by **Taffy** Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:40 pm

I hate asking this question but I hope someone will help me. I have to drive to Norwalk, CT tomorrow morning and I'm leaving 8:30ish. Should I expect more snow as I travel into CT?

Thanks in advance. Taffy

by **jimv45** Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:41 pm

Right Rb, i think we end up around me in the 2-3 range. But can hope for more. Not Felling the next storm most likely little snow to sleet and rain.

by **hyde345** Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:29 pm

rb924119 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:WWA for Dutchess tonight for 2-5 inches. Any snow is good snow.

Saw that haha I think they’re nuts lol coating-2”/1-3” sounds much more reasonable imo, but we’ve been through all this already lmao

Not according to Nam and Rgem. They both have 3-4 inches IMBY. GFS and CMC also have decent amounts. Not sure why you are saying they are nuts. They expect highest totals of 5 inches or so in Eastern Catskills. 2-4 inches for remainder of region is certainly a reasonable forecast given latest guidance.

See my earlier post regarding my “issues” with this system. That should help clarify a bit......hopefully lol if not, you know you can always follow up

Honestly, 2-4 is not high and is backed up by a few sources of guidance.

by **SoulSingMG** Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:42 pm

So let me get this straight, per Bernie just now:

Tonight’s event favors SNE for the heaviest snows and Wednesday favors Southern PA/NJ lol. The NYC snow hole lives on!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:59 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:So let me get this straight, per Bernie just now:

Tonight’s event favors SNE for the heaviest snows and Wednesday favors Southern PA/NJ lol. The NYC snow hole lives on!

The biggest snow hole in the northeast this year is easily B oston down I95 through NYC and most of CNJ and SNJ.

The big winner, or loser, depending on how you look at it is definitely B oston right now. They've had only 4.8 inches of snow since October 1.

by **SoulSingMG** Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:33 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:So let me get this straight, per Bernie just now:

Tonight’s event favors SNE for the heaviest snows and Wednesday favors Southern PA/NJ lol. The NYC snow hole lives on!

The biggest snow hole in the northeast this year is easily B oston down I95 through NYC and most of CNJ and SNJ.

The big winner, or loser, depending on how you look at it is definitely B oston right now. They've had only 4.8 inches of snow since October 1.

Yeah, but they’ll be ahead of us after tonight. So frustrating the best action remains either north or south of NYC.

by **heehaw453** Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:50 pm

18Z NAM is a good helping of snow on Wednesday for most of this forum. 6+ before any taint whatsoever. Obviously NAM is not in best range yet, but it shows the snow coming in like a wall and is how we'd have a shot at significant snow from this. Closest range significant potential that I've seen since November as sad as it is.

by **hyde345** Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:17 pm

heehaw453 wrote:18Z NAM is a good helping of snow on Wednesday for most of this forum. 6+ before any taint whatsoever. Obviously NAM is not in best range yet, but it shows the snow coming in like a wall and is how we'd have a shot at significant snow from this. Closest range significant potential that I've seen since November as sad as it is.

Not sure how you are seeing 6+ for Wednesday. That snow map includes what is going to fall tonight.

by **heehaw453** Sun Feb 17, 2019 5:05 pm

hyde345 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:18Z NAM is a good helping of snow on Wednesday for most of this forum. 6+ before any taint whatsoever. Obviously NAM is not in best range yet, but it shows the snow coming in like a wall and is how we'd have a shot at significant snow from this. Closest range significant potential that I've seen since November as sad as it is.

Not sure how you are seeing 6+ for Wednesday. That snow map includes what is going to fall tonight.

Most of the forum below I80 will see c-1" at best for tonight. I didn't mean HV because most likely HV will get more snow from tonight than Wednesday as it stands now.

This would be folks in CNJ to NYC that have seen very little this winter. Hope they cash in.

Snow Events Week of 02/17 - Page 2 2-17-210

Before taint

Snow Events Week of 02/17 - Page 2 2-17-212

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 17, 2019 5:30 pm

Looks like a C-2" of snow N&W of NYC tonight into the morning. As much as 3 inches if you begin to factor in sleet. Once you get into Ulster county it could be more in the 3-5" range.
The 3"+ zone extends through CT into MA as well. For NYC and much of NJ (other than far NW NJ) a C-1" tonight into the morning hours.

Wednesday could be a different story with a heavy front-end thump of snow, but models are waffling on this.