June 2019 observation and discussion

by **algae888** Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:56 pm

New month same old pattern. Nice day today more severe weather tomorrow then a big cool down early this week. At least the first half of June looks cooler than normal. So far zero 90 degree days for Central Park I think Newark hit it once no heat yet which is fine by me

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Jun 01, 2019 5:37 pm

For tommorow

June 2019 observation and discussion Day2ot10

by **dkodgis** Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:15 pm

8 pm and it just opened up. The shaboodle: lightning, thunder, heavy rain

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Jun 02, 2019 8:22 am

dkodgis wrote:8 pm and it just opened up. The shaboodle: lightning, thunder, heavy rain

Missed us here, nada! We'll see if we get anything later today.

by **docstox12** Sun Jun 02, 2019 11:55 am

algae888 wrote:New month same old pattern. Nice day today more severe weather tomorrow then a big cool down early this week. At least the first half of June looks cooler than normal. So far zero 90 degree days for Central Park I think Newark hit it once no heat yet which is fine by me

Al, NWS has me down to 43 for a low Monday night.That's cool for June.Lee Goldberg had mentioned a while ago June would be cool but he's looking for the big warm up in July and August.

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Jun 02, 2019 9:41 pm

I can not remember a more wicked storm in recent history..we got more than hAlf an inch of rain in 15 min

by **frank 638** Sun Jun 02, 2019 9:58 pm

Severe thunderstorm warning in effect for all nuc until 1015 .mod rain has started no wind yet but pretty cool lightning show

by **frank 638** Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:11 pm

Heavy rain now wind is picking up now and still lots of lightning

by **frank 638** Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:22 am

Cool crisp morning got down to 51* perfect sleeping whether

by **aiannone** Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:09 am

Bottomed out at 43.8 here on the island last night. Chilly for June.

by **billg315** Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:54 pm

Definitely was a chilly (for June) morning here. Beautiful out this afternoon though. Looks like warm and humid takes over tomorrow but a round of T'Storms tomorrow night ushers in more pleasant temps at week's end. Let's try to keep the streak of decent weekends going down at the shore . . . this could be the third in a row.

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:58 am

billg315 wrote:Definitely was a chilly (for June) morning here. Beautiful out this afternoon though. Looks like warm and humid takes over tomorrow but a round of T'Storms tomorrow night ushers in more pleasant temps at week's end. Let's try to keep the streak of decent weekends going down at the shore . . . this could be the third in a row.

It was such a glorious day yesterday!! today a little warmer and more humid, but still a nice breeze flowing. Looks like another great weekend! Enjoy

by **dkodgis** Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:21 am

Sunny, beautiful. 69 this morning. What is funny to me: I cut the grass late yesterday and was going to leave the mower out to tempt the Fates. No rain forecast, of course. However, I put the mower inside anyway and this morning, what do I see? It rained. Why not?

It looks like we will have a small stretch of sunny weather. I am looking forward to it.

by **algae888** Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:34 pm

Beautiful weekend coming up high temperatures around 80 low dew points cool at night muggy weather Monday into Tuesday and then another nice stretch after that no heat in the foreseeable future as a ridge will be centered in the Southwest hope this continues throughout the summer. No 90-degree days even at Newark and there won't be any for the next 2 weeks which takes us to June 20th pretty unusual in the climate where in

by **docstox12** Fri Jun 07, 2019 5:24 am

algae888 wrote:Beautiful weekend coming up high temperatures around 80 low dew points cool at night muggy weather Monday into Tuesday and then another nice stretch after that no heat in the foreseeable future as a ridge will be centered in the Southwest hope this continues throughout the summer. No 90-degree days even at Newark and there won't be any for the next 2 weeks which takes us to June 20th pretty unusual in the climate where in

Al, Lee Goldberg had mentioned last month the cool weather would last through June then he saw the blowtorch coming for July and August.Let's enjoy these perfect days while they last, whatever happens.We have usually had at least five 90 degree days by now in most seasons.Saving money on central AC costs,LOL.

by **frank 638** Fri Jun 07, 2019 3:20 pm

algae888 wrote:Beautiful weekend coming up high temperatures around 80 low dew points cool at night muggy weather Monday into Tuesday and then another nice stretch after that no heat in the foreseeable future as a ridge will be centered in the Southwest hope this continues throughout the summer. No 90-degree days even at Newark and there won't be any for the next 2 weeks which takes us to June 20th pretty unusual in the climate where in

I don't mind it at all don't get me wrong I love summer but not the heat and humidity esp working in it I hope it stays like this unfortunately it won't have a wonderful weekend

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:33 am

ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS DAY!! 67* wind 14 mph east...ENJOY!!

by **dkodgis** Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:19 am

Beautiful sunset yesterday and now today, rain-and lots of it. However, where there is all sun, there is desert. Although is has been "cool", being out in the sun somehow fools me I am in 80+ degree weather. A beautiful 56 degrees right now as I watch the bird feeders and bird houses with their residents having breakfast.

by **dkodgis** Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:07 pm

I have about 24 mph winds with gusts up to 40 mph! Beautiful day but windy as heck.

by **billg315** Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:40 pm

Looks like the new GFS core (FV3) is up and running. We'll see how it performs in the coming months as Fall and Winter slooowly get closer.

Speaking of which, almost a winter-storm like setup Thursday with a Low over the Great Lakes and a secondary trying to develop off the mid-Atlantic. Could be a rainy day, although the GFS keeps the heaviest rain over southeastern PA and the Delmarva with much of NJ just getting about a half inch.

by **rb924119** Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:56 pm

billg315 wrote:Looks like the new GFS core (FV3) is up and running. We'll see how it performs in the coming months as Fall and Winter slooowly get closer.

Anybody else find it curious that they are releasing it as operational now that it’s summer, when a not insignificant portion of its problems were highlighted with its snowfall prediction? I’m really nervous about this model.

by **billg315** Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:40 pm

rb924119 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Looks like the new GFS core (FV3) is up and running. We'll see how it performs in the coming months as Fall and Winter slooowly get closer.

Anybody else find it curious that they are releasing it as operational now that it’s summer, when a not insignificant portion of its problems were highlighted with its snowfall prediction? I’m really nervous about this model.

I had exactly the same thought thinking back to how "off" it was on snowfall. The only thing I could think is that they wanted to see how it was faring before the snow season got here in case tweaks needed to be made -- but I'm not sure how they'd know that without having snowfall to test it against (maybe the problem was just precipitation amounts, which they could still assess before winter? I really don't know).

by mwilli Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:18 pm

noaa is upgrading the gfs model,i would like to send the article here..if njstrong weather is on facebook i could send it there...let me know

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:35 pm

mwilli wrote:noaa is upgrading the gfs model,i would like to send the article here..if njstrong weather is on facebook i could send it there...let me know

I for one won't miss this god awful model. It should of been replaced years ago. I can only hope they worked out the kinks with the FV3 model. R.I.P. GFS!!!

by **Quietace** Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:30 pm

rb924119 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Looks like the new GFS core (FV3) is up and running. We'll see how it performs in the coming months as Fall and Winter slooowly get closer.

Anybody else find it curious that they are releasing it as operational now that it’s summer, when a not insignificant portion of its problems were highlighted with its snowfall prediction? I’m really nervous about this model.

As we know it was delayed for that issue, however, if you read the implementation notice you will find that it states:

"EMC has conducted 3 years of retrospective experiments, including the real-time parallel, covering the past 3.5 years for a comprehensive evaluation of the Q2FY19 GFS implementation. GFS V15 shows equal or improved forecast skills in many areas, especially for 500-hPa height anomaly correlations, precipitation diurnal cycle and ETS score over the CONUS, surface 2m temperature, stratospheric ozone and water vapor, and hurricane intensity over all basins. Several individual case studies illustrate the model occasionally produces excessive snow in the medium range. EMC also noted a persistent cold bias that increases with forecast time. EMC will continue to explore ways to address these issues."
There were two updates that were utilized to fix this problem, with a power point link I have included below that describes the issues and fixes in more detail. However, it is noted that while the severity of the issues is moderated, it is not a complete fixed. On one hand, the summer release allows them additional time to provide updates to fix this issue while operating a slightly higher skill score model during a time of year where this bias has little impact. However, the counter-argument is the assumption any fixes can be implemented before the winter.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alicia.Bentley/fv3gfs/updates/MEG_4-04-19_FV3GFS_COLD.pptx

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