Current date/time is Mon May 06, 2024 6:27 pm
Search found 1 match for snowy
Long Range Discussion 22.0
amugs wrote:You guys are using OP 500mb maps a week out in this most volatile pattern with HUGE changes between the MJO in Phase 8, SOI crash, a cut off low in the Baja of Cali = Split Flow and STJ injection happening not to mention a NAO going Negative, EPO and PNA flipping with a PV entering the picture?
ENS peeps are teh way to go. In no way can one say this is a miss at the 15-17th time frame at this stage with all the aforementioned IMO.
Time will tell. GEFS and EURO ENS are showing some very good LP positions and indicy members. Just like Friday's storm models are going o struggle mightily until we are in a few days.
Time will tell but the Massive Ocean storm has a huge role in the follow up system. If that system doesn't exit quick enough than we may very miss the 15-17th but if it does than the follow up storm can come N.
Bump that's all.
EPO on EURO is insanely Negative - this would rival the 93-94 January MLK week cold outbreak
Saturday and Sunday are colder than today - the Arctic air comes N NW not NW which allowed the Great Lakes to help modify the air a bit than modeled a few days ago.
This is exactly what we want to see for a sustained cold adn stormy pattern
GEFS is locked into a well-oiled machine at the moment. Low in Scandi/Barents, High in E Asia, Low in the Aleutians, Highs dropping down E of the Rockies. It's quite a sight pic.twitter.com/qrS3Q0ThPa
— griteater (@griteater) January 11, 2022
Stretch it real good!! You may say well the PV is very strong and yes very looking at Zonal wind charts BUT we an elongation that has taken place and looks to be sustained through the end of the month and maybe beyond as a result of teh MJO phase 6 adn the +EAMT along with the SCAN HP through the last 2.5 week of December.
"Once, twice, three times a stretched PV" This morning's GFS suggestive of two more stretched polar vortex events for the hattrick this month. This would likely persist #cold & possibly #snowy pattern across eastern North America. Confident about the first, second is speculative. pic.twitter.com/AF98FBHVYl
— Judah Cohen (@judah47) January 11, 2022
Buckle up peeps we are gonna be tracking for a nice period of time. Don't fret if every storm isn't a bomb etc and please have patience to the pattern and not live n die by every OP run. Recognize the pattern is conducive for opportunities and as I said in my rant above - this is a volatile pattern and even the ENS will struggle to pick up on things BUT we can see Friday storm guidance dance with some of these storms. Ala 14-15 and 17-18 IMO.
The Aleutian Low recycling is very important to blocking the Pac Jet and its retraction as is the Siberian and Korean Peninsula Systems. This will allow teh EPO to stay and PNA to rise.
- on Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:11 pm
- Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
- Topic: Long Range Discussion 22.0
- Replies: 756
- Views: 31394