February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

Round 2! Areas that got skunked last storm have a chance to make up for it with this one. There’s general consensus that low pressure will develop over Virginia which is where our baroclinic zone currently lives. Along this zone is where you’ll find the best dynamics that will lead to moderate snowfall accumulations.




The top image is your 250mb jet steak that is modeled to pass through the Mid Atlantic. You have mid level energy transcending south out of the polar region thanks for a very robust PNA ridge. The bottom image is your 700mb frontogenesis which is your “jackpot” zone for this event. Although the surface low is weak, at 1000mb give or take, there will be banding along the baroclinic area capable of 1-1.5”/hour.

DC to SNJ are looking at a 4-8” snowfall. Philly to CNJ 3-6”. NNJ, including NYC and LI, look more like 1-3” but it’s a tough forecast. If we see a trend north (sound familiar?) it’s possible some of the better dynamics spread north as well which could put more areas under 3-6”. Some models such as the NAM actually show subsidence, or dry air, over much of NNJ/NYC leading up to the storm. It could be difficult to erode that away. So that’s also a factor for keeping snow amounts on the lower end there.

Good luck SNJ!!!

So far 12z looking up for us here on Long Island. Hoping for a solid 2-4 inches..

Good trends today with the 12Z model suite. NAM, RGEM, and GFS have continued to tick north. Advisory level amounts encompass most of the area. 3-5” looks like a good bet.

nutleyblizzard wrote:Good trends today with the 12Z model suite. NAM, RGEM, and GFS have continued to tick north. Advisory level amounts encompass most of the area. 3-5” looks like a good bet.

Look at 12z HRRR for some real excitement

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Starting to see the new 12z models coming in showing a bump north with slightly higher liquid equivalents and more organized lift. Will be assessing the rest of the 12z guidance and any expansion of the Advisory will occur with the afternoon package.

12z GFS ticks N - another one and 3-4" very doable for NNJ and NYC Metro





Gives reason to pause when it is this moisture laden for a clipper.

Heehaw 200/250Jet enhancing with STJ a bit? Grading heavily before break so no time here brother n sisters

Expect advisories from Upton this afternoon!

So 0.3-0.4 with this would be 5-6 inches? It is 39 degrees, how is it possible there could be such high ratios?

MattyICE wrote:Expect advisories from Upton this afternoon!

Probably, we will see, IMBY 3 incjhes 10:1, so if we get 15:1 or higher thats almost warning level snow (I believe here it is 6 or more (I was happy with 1-3 so if we see anything more thats great. This will be a fluffy snow correct? Not a back breaker like last?

amugs wrote:12z GFS ticks N - another one and 3-4" very doable for NNJ and NYC Metro





Gives reason to pause when it is this moisture laden for a clipper.

Heehaw 200/250Jet enhancing with STJ a bit? Grading heavily before break so no time here brother n sisters

possible warning level snows with ratios in central NJ. High end WWA north of there into LI NYC and most of westchester per this run. GFS def has been consistent in moving north past several runs. Just like last one this seems to be the theme this year.

jmanley32 wrote:So 0.3-0.4 with this would be 5-6 inches? It is 39 degrees, how is it possible there could be such high ratios?

Is it snowing now???

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:So 0.3-0.4 with this would be 5-6 inches? It is 39 degrees, how is it possible there could be such high ratios?

Is it snowing now???

LOL. This was my question. I was like “..wait a minute…huh??”

jmanley32 wrote:

MattyICE wrote:Expect advisories from Upton this afternoon!

Probably, we will see, IMBY 3 incjhes 10:1, so if we get 15:1 or higher thats almost warning level snow (I believe here it is 6 or more (I was happy with 1-3 so if we see anything more thats great. This will be a fluffy snow correct? Not a back breaker like last?

Lighter for sure. I doubt WSW anywhere for upton unless it keeps trending right up to game time.

The trend to come slightly north has also removed some of the drier air I was seeing in modeling this morning. If true that should allow for some better accumulation further north as well. This likely went from a 1-3 to 2-4” event for NYC Metro. Still feel good about 3-5” in SNJ.

Frank_Wx wrote:The trend to come slightly north has also removed some of the drier air I was seeing in modeling this morning. If true that should allow for some better accumulation further north as well. This likely went from a 1-3 to 2-4” event for NYC Metro. Still feel good about 3-5” in SNJ.

Man, I love being inside the purple lines. It’s like being hugged by Barney.

SENJsnowman wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The trend to come slightly north has also removed some of the drier air I was seeing in modeling this morning. If true that should allow for some better accumulation further north as well. This likely went from a 1-3 to 2-4” event for NYC Metro. Still feel good about 3-5” in SNJ.

Man, I love being inside the purple lines. It’s like being hugged by Barney.

I love you you love me

MattyICE wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:So 0.3-0.4 with this would be 5-6 inches? It is 39 degrees, how is it possible there could be such high ratios?

Is it snowing now???

LOL. This was my question.  I was like “..wait a minute…huh??”  

Well excuseeee me, I just meant how is it going to stick with such warm temps even if they crash tonight. No it's not snowing now duh... (joking) but the ground is very mushy and I can't see how it won't be wet again if we get anything. It won't be blitxzing like last storm so IMO it may be hard to stick up here anyways, douwn central NJ I could see it. Hoping though.

frank 638 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The trend to come slightly north has also removed some of the drier air I was seeing in modeling this morning. If true that should allow for some better accumulation further north as well. This likely went from a 1-3 to 2-4” event for NYC Metro. Still feel good about 3-5” in SNJ.

Man, I love being inside the purple lines. It’s like being hugged by Barney.

I love you you love me

Bahaha thats hilarious the frontogenesis def came much further north that earlier runs. What is the approximate start and end time? Will I be good to travel to CT late this evening and return tomorrow midday, I hate driving in any snow mainly because of others. I have no problem driving in snow myself.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

SREF coming in more amped.

So NYC if 15-20:1 thats 5.25-7? I can't see that happening, or am I just being pessimistic? If those ratios occur, and like 10+ inches plus in central NJ?

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

SREF coming in more amped.

So is that like 4-6 NYC if 15-20:1? If those ratios occur, and like 10 inches plus in central NJ?

IMO Sout of the line you will see 10-15:1 ratios at best; prob 12:1 max. As you head N your ratios increase

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

SREF coming in more amped.

So is that like 4-6 NYC if 15-20:1? If those ratios occur, and like 10 inches plus in central NJ?

IMO Sout of the line you will see 10-15:1 ratios at best; prob 12:1 max.  As you head N your ratios increase

So as I just posted, we were posting at the same time that puts NYC at like 5.25 at 15:1 to 7 at 20:1, thats nuts if true.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

The RAP is coming more enhanced as well! Is this a trend or a blip? Makes for an interesting evening to say the least.

Is that finished or only partway done? Takes south jersey almost out ya crazy, is it a blip, but look at last one the highest totals were N &W which wasn't expected.

I'll be in the far reaches of South Jersey (way further south than even SENJsnowman!!) later tonight and tomorrow so I'll let you know how it looks down there.