February 17th 2024 Snow Observations

nutleyblizzard wrote:

The RAP is coming more enhanced as well! Is this a trend or a blip? Makes for an interesting evening to say the least.

Is that finished or only partway done? Takes south jersey almost out ya crazy, is it a blip, but look at last one the highest totals were N &W which wasn't expected.

I'll be in the far reaches of South Jersey (way further south than even SENJsnowman!!) later tonight and tomorrow so I'll let you know how it looks down there.

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

SREF coming in more amped.

So is that like 4-6 NYC if 15-20:1? If those ratios occur, and like 10 inches plus in central NJ?

IMO Sout of the line you will see 10-15:1 ratios at best; prob 12:1 max.  As you head N your ratios increase

So as I just posted, we were posting at the same time that puts NYC at like 5.25 at 15:1 to 7 at 20:1, thats nuts if true.

I personally don’t think 15-20:1 widespread ratios will be common even north of Scott’s line. They’re also dynamic meaning you could experience 15:1 under a band then go back to 10:1 twenty minutes later.

have to love last minute trends we are seeing and N trend too........surprise surprise and 'Atmospheric Memory" as Haw adn SROC have stated. Better than some others memory at tis time!!

EURO - more N and a wider spread accumulating/ moderate snows now:
4AM

6AM


10AM SROC and Alex get thumped




That's 2-3" for NNJ, NYC Metro maybe 4" Lollipops
SNJ 3-4"

Kuchera = ratios (12-15:1 on this I'd say)


10:1

36 degrees, partly sunny, windy.
Looks like the North trend continues, seems to be the case with these recent snowstorms.I may have a chance at 3 here.

Nam coming in north!

Winter Weather Advisories just expanded to include all of NYC, Long Island, and NE NJ:

2-4 with the WWA and I won't be here waaa lol looks like we may see a inch or 2 in CT if the N trend continues.

The expanded NWS advisories and snow maps...

Here's Uptons take. I thought South Jersey was supposed to be in a favorable locale? Looks like you gotta burn the midnight oil if you wanna see this event as they are saying between 2AM to 8 AM is when rates will be best.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/02162024pm_snow.pdf

What an ugly looking snow hole on the latest HRRR for SNJ...



It also exists on the latest RAP



So the short res models are picking up on this extreme banding of snow for CNJ/NNJ that causes subsidence south of there. Interesting......

In my head I figured ratios would be a bit better than what is being modeled. They will be good for NNJ and N&W, obviously, but immediate coast and SNJ are looking at your standard 10:1.



Here is the progression of the snow based on 18z GFS

1am



4am



7am



Total snow

Amazingly 18z GFS also shows this glaring hole of precip in south-central NJ. Rare agreement on the models with where the strongest banding sets up

Enjoy all, I am away in eastern CT where looks like we aren't go get anything maybe 1/2-1 max. Looking forward to tracking whats on the scroll.

Overperformer in the making

amugs wrote:


Overperformer in the making

How can you tell?

All the yellow which are heavy echoes of tstorms, that are attributed to latent heat from the jet steam. That usually lifts Northward.

Radar filling in nicely and a tad more north

Coming in a little early.  However, no visual snow of yet.  



Now snowing.

Fine flakes arriving in Middletown NJ.

justdrew wrote:Fine flakes arriving in Middletown NJ.

And from the looks of it, the flakes are staying in.Middletown for a bit.  Oh well, win some, lose  some.

Started snowing at 11:53 in the pm, 28 degrees, ground covered, coming down nice fine snow, still had 6 inches from previous storm,
     Good Luck !

Large moderate to heavy band with 35-40 DBZ snow working into the staten island, new brunswick, and nassau area.

Goalscore1 wrote:Large moderate to heavy band with 35-40 DBZ snow working into the staten island, new brunswick, and nassau area.

I'm in that at 22/78. An easy inch an hour rate.