Re: Observations/ Final Discussion Thread 1/2 - 1/3, 2014 Snowstorm

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:28 pm

Quietace wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:10 degrees and still snowing lightly, from the radar it looks like I'm about to get into the more moderate stuff, from the north and west.

At these temperatures which are only going lower, I'm sure a half inch qpf will give me a foot of snow. Now hopefully I get at least a half inch of liquid.
CP how far are you running below guidance right now in temps? Seems like all over FB people are running below on temps.

Ryan:

I'm running 6 to 8 degrees below what was forecast right now. It's been dropping slowly all day. I started the morning at 14.6 it's now 10.0

by **aiannone** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:29 pm

Why would Upton lower totals? The storm looks better!

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:30 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Quietace wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:10 degrees and still snowing lightly, from the radar it looks like I'm about to get into the more moderate stuff, from the north and west.

At these temperatures which are only going lower, I'm sure a half inch qpf will give me a foot of snow. Now hopefully I get at least a half inch of liquid.
CP how far are you running below guidance right now in temps? Seems like all over FB people are running below on temps.
Ryan:

I'm running 6 to 8 degrees below what was forecast right now. It's been dropping slowly all day. I started the morning at 14.6 it's now 10.0

Thats very interesting to be honest.

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:31 pm

Upton actually upgraded my totals from 4-8 to 5-9... lol

by jbnyy224 Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:32 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Upton actually upgraded my totals from 4-8 to 5-9... lol

Same for me in Brooklyn!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:34 pm

Lot's of cold air in HV and north that's gonna feed down into NJ and NYC when this gets going. Watch your temperatures drop and your ratios go up.

by **crippo84** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:34 pm

Even Boston is sitting at a chilly 12 degrees. We're still sitting at 26 here in the city. A cold blustery ominous feeling outside. Let the fun begin.

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:37 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Lot's of cold air in HV and north that's gonna feed down into NJ and NYC when this gets going. Watch your temperatures drop and your ratios go up.

Colds looks very very ahead of schedule it looks like. Very good for ratios. Thanks for the info CP. Appreciate it.

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:39 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Upton actually upgraded my totals from 4-8 to 5-9... lol

Yup 3 pm update never even saw it i swear i checked a few times they posted it late for it being a 3pm update..5-9 lol

by **oldtimer** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:42 pm

Ace i read from NWS they are using 12/1 ratios to low ?

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:44 pm

oldtimer wrote:Ace i read from NWS they are using 12/1 ratios to low ?

They are being conservative. We will likely start at 12:1 and move toward higher ratios as the night goes on and we drop into teens and some places lower. Average will probably be 15:1 through the event but we will end Friday morning at 20:1. Thats why any Friday snow is important with the high ratios IMO.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:45 pm

Quietace wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Lot's of cold air in HV and north that's gonna feed down into NJ and NYC when this gets going. Watch your temperatures drop and your ratios go up.
Colds looks very very ahead of schedule it looks like. Very good for ratios. Thanks for the info CP. Appreciate it.

My pleasure Ryan, keep up the good work, it's great reading your analysis.

9.9 here now, I'm officially in single digits, now I just need some heavier precip.

by **oldtimer** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:45 pm

Gotcha thx Ryan

by **amugs** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:46 pm

Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:
Quietace wrote:Continue all discussion here

Ace after seeing the RGEM yesterday I had a feeling with the QPF and the ratio's 10+" for NNJ and possibly 2' for Eastern LI - may just happen. This puppy is going to overachieve IMO.
We probably wont know that till the coastal forms. The primary is down to 1004, which is a good sign. Keep watching over next hour.

Ace,

Not trying the I told you so thing here at all cause you can run circles around me 1 million times for your talents with the weather - I was just going by what I was seeing and a hunch. That primary is a little stronger so far if I am reading this correctly.

BTW 20* here and it is snizzling out for the last hour - very light

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:49 pm

amugs wrote:
Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:
Quietace wrote:Continue all discussion here

Ace after seeing the RGEM yesterday I had a feeling with the QPF and the ratio's 10+" for NNJ and possibly 2' for Eastern LI - may just happen. This puppy is going to overachieve IMO.
We probably wont know that till the coastal forms. The primary is down to 1004, which is a good sign. Keep watching over next hour.

Ace,

Not trying the I told you so thing here at all cause you can run circles around me 1 million times for your talents with the weather - I was just going by what I was seeing and a hunch. That primary is a little stronger so far if I am reading this correctly.

BTW 20* here and it is snizzling out for the last hour - very light

Absolutely Mugs if you have a gut feeling go for it, i just want to see where the coastal forms first before I even think about adjusting numbers. IMO will be tough for anyone to get 2ft.
Edit-except for Boston area...

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:54 pm

Snow has entered New Jersey. The 1-2 inch per hour band near DC seems headed for CNJ area. This is the type of banding that will set up closer to the low.
Observations/ Final Discussion Thread 1/2 - 1/3, 2014 Snowstorm - Page 5 Nerad214

Observations/ Final Discussion Thread 1/2 - 1/3, 2014 Snowstorm - Page 5 Nerad214

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:58 pm

Ace when do think time wise will be the worst.

by **oldtimer** Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:59 pm

Will it start filling in south of LI And way too tell speed?

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:01 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Ace when do think time wise will be the worst.

Definitely will get worse once the precip moves in right away. But over night looks bad to me with whiteout conditions. We will definitely see some drifts tomorrow morning.
Hows the town prepared for this?

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:02 pm

oldtimer wrote:Will it start filling in south of LI And way too tell speed?

It will.

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:05 pm

I been on vacation this week but from the guys at DPW everything is ready plows and salt on trucks. I shoyld get called in some point tonight.

by **Vinnydula** Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:07 pm

Light snow in Westchester

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:07 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I been on vacation this week but from the guys at DPW everything is ready plows and salt on trucks. I shoyld get called in some point tonight.

You guys should have a busy night. lol

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:11 pm

Oh yeah we will they will call us in the middle of it lol

by **amugs** Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:11 pm

My brother said it is rippin' out by him in Hackettstown NJ - Warren County Western NJ.

by Fededle22 Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:17 pm

22 degrees here in West Orange but feels a lot colder. Wind picking up. No snow really to speak of.

by Dwsi91 Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:19 pm

Light snow starting in western Monmouth

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