Re: May 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread

by **Frank_Wx** Wed May 28, 2014 9:31 pm

For the NYC Metro area, May is on pace to finish slightly above normal. However, looking deeper into the data will show you that there were actually more normal and below normal days than there were above normal. The biggest reason why this month may finish slightly above (+1) is because the days it has been above normal, the departures have been +10 or higher.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed May 28, 2014 9:35 pm

amugs wrote: Frank it has to go by Friday - big party for my sons birthdays saturday - 40 people coming for a bbcue!

Check out the temp gradient

GFS suggests temps only in the lower 60's Saturday.

May 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread - Page 9 Gfs_T2m_neus_14

by **amugs** Thu May 29, 2014 9:03 am

This is why I do not like the GFS!!!HAHAHAHA!

by **Snow88** Thu May 29, 2014 10:08 am

Morning low was 50. Nice and crisp morning. 55 right now.

by **amugs** Thu May 29, 2014 1:25 pm

Snow88 wrote:Morning low was 50. Nice and crisp morning. 55 right now.

tony,

You can say that again - crisp - fall like morning without the fiolage!

Gorgeous day out here in NNJ - bright sunshine Cool

and nice temps low 60's (62*) - cool but I'll take it over yesterday's 50's and Tuesdays 86* and humid.

by **jmanley32** Thu May 29, 2014 4:04 pm

I noticed quite a low developing off the coast this coming weekend, is that any threat to us or is it OTS? Models show it OTS but it seems to meander for quite some time. Is this one of those hybrid type deals frank was talking about? Because it gets pretty well ldefined on all 3 models.

by **algae888** Thu May 29, 2014 5:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I noticed quite a low developing off the coast this coming weekend, is that any threat to us or is it OTS? Models show it OTS but it seems to meander for quite some time. Is this one of those hybrid type deals frank was talking about? Because it gets pretty well ldefined on all 3 models.

jman the low is well east of Bermuda so will have no effect on us. however the eastern GOM is going to get very active around the 7th of june and looks like it will linger for some time. bears watching.

by **amugs** Thu May 29, 2014 8:53 pm

algae888 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I noticed quite a low developing off the coast this coming weekend, is that any threat to us or is it OTS? Models show it OTS but it seems to meander for quite some time. Is this one of those hybrid type deals frank was talking about? Because it gets pretty well ldefined on all 3 models.

jman the low is well east of Bermuda so will have no effect on us. however the eastern GOM is going to get very active around the 7th of june and looks like it will linger for some time. bears watching.

Algae, you are spot on it looks to be very active the GOM for the end of next week and thereafter. Looks to eject a trop depression or low out and up the coast - cyclops

by **jmanley32** Thu May 29, 2014 9:02 pm

Dang I should have posted about the GOM but figured I was pushing the ball being its pretty far out. Kudos to algae to getting to it first lol. Yeah I figured as much with the atlantic and I know all about the GOM and caribbean possible development in the 10 day. GFS has wavered from little to nothing to a strong TS. Def bears watching. Whatever it does its going to be a soaker wether or not it brings wind with it will not know for a while. I have been saving and comparing model pics and the Euro finally came on board with a weak low in near the same place as GFS and CMC, and nothing seems to be blowing it out of proportion which is a good sign of some consistency. I wasn't sure if I should post this in the tropics section or here, figured it woul just be discussion until something forms then we can move to tropics section if that works. I did note that it appears shear has a big part in this possible evolution in the tropics and seems to send the moisture to the N and E. Todays GFS had a 999mb storm hitting FL panhandle (at least I believe it was the GFS) but we have also seen a bigger storm last week of 989mb in central FL. So its the watch and wait game. I think SOMETHING will be there just not sure on intensity, track and exact time frame although it looks to be at least 10 days out.

by **jmanley32** Thu May 29, 2014 9:13 pm

I am not saying he is right alot but JB makes a good point on his twitter with the pic of the very warm anomolies off our shores and the fact that we are at risk all the way up east coast this year for tropical cyclones. It looks to me like its going to be a active start to the season and as we know could continue to be active until the el nino comes in if it does. GWO is predicting 17 named, 8 hurricanes and 2-3 majors. They are the only ones who got last year pretty spot on, got irene and sandy 3 years ahead of time so I wonder if they will be right this year. Just be prepared, after Sandy I think they should do what they are doing in FL and offer tax free hurricane supplies as we are becoming more susceptible to strong lows, hurricanes or not.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri May 30, 2014 12:10 am

Could be a spotty afternoon showers today. Temps continue to remain around the mid to upper 60's. Might crack 70 today

by **Frank_Wx** Fri May 30, 2014 12:11 am

It won't be until Tuesday that steady rain moves in again.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat May 31, 2014 10:25 am

Nice day today. Should get into mid 70's. Spotty showers possible later. Tomorrow even better. Sunny and temps near 80

by **amugs** Mon Jun 02, 2014 2:41 pm

Folks I read that May for NYC finished 1.5* above normal - seems crazy with all the cool weather but the data and readings show this.

Onto Meteorological Summer !!!!

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