Re: May 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread

by **skinsfan1177** Wed May 14, 2014 2:23 pm

It also looks like the weather has changed the better for next week on my golf trip in ocean city md.

by **essexcountypete** Wed May 14, 2014 2:58 pm

Car therm said it was 74º here in Florham Park and it's quite sunny atm.

I'm camping at the east end of LI this weekend. NAM showed ugly ammounts of rain a few days ago for Fri/Sat, but backed off a bit. Hoping it might back off some more, but not looking good.

Input on the weekend weather from anyone here would be welcome, thanks!

by **Dtone** Wed May 14, 2014 6:10 pm

reached 71* down to 61* & cloudy

by **jmanley32** Thu May 15, 2014 1:00 pm

That front looks impressive and I hear a wave of LP is supposed to form along itSo what are people thinking for tomorrow, flooding rains or just a modest 1-2 inches? I hear that the front may actually weaken as it hits our area, will we see any good t-storms out of this front? And will it clear for Saturday morning? I am going on my weekly yardsale hunt and there are many posted I hope they do not get rained out. Yes I have a ebay business and am somewhat of a "picker" as a extra income since I am a social worker and anyone who works in that field knows you make very little money, fopr alot of work.

by **amugs** Thu May 15, 2014 1:15 pm

essexcountypete wrote:Car therm said it was 74º here in Florham Park and it's quite sunny atm.

I'm camping at the east end of LI this weekend. NAM showed ugly ammounts of rain a few days ago for Fri/Sat, but backed off a bit. Hoping it might back off some more, but not looking good.

Input on the weekend weather from anyone here would be welcome, thanks!

Pete,

How far out are you going? - Twin Forks area? Things should clear out there by later afternoon Sat and should be in sun and clouds for Sun maybe a stray shower and nicer weather shaping up once this front passes for Sunday as well. From the looks of the models this afternoon Friday like Frank said is going to be rainy and windy as well - out there in LI.

by **amugs** Thu May 15, 2014 1:15 pm

by **essexcountypete** Thu May 15, 2014 1:41 pm

amugs wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:Car therm said it was 74º here in Florham Park and it's quite sunny atm.

I'm camping at the east end of LI this weekend. NAM showed ugly ammounts of rain a few days ago for Fri/Sat, but backed off a bit. Hoping it might back off some more, but not looking good.

Input on the weekend weather from anyone here would be welcome, thanks!

Pete,

How far out are you going? - Twin Forks area? Things should clear out there by later afternoon Sat and should be in sun and clouds for Sun maybe a stray shower and nicer weather shaping up once this front passes for Sunday as well. From the looks of the models this afternoon Friday like Frank said is going to be rainy and windy as well - out there in LI.

Thanks for the reply Mugsy! I'm going to East Hampton for an over-40 ultimate frisbee tounament on Saturday and Sunday (p0t smoking hippy jokes will follow no doubt Smile

but joking aside, I'll be way out there. I'm hoping to get there to set up my tent before the rain comes. Looks like the worst of it will be overnight into Sat morning when we're hitting the field. That total rain map look to be about 1.25 - 1.5", and that's not fun when you've in a tent. Oh well, time to break out the rain gear and the extra tarps.

by **Dunnzoo** Thu May 15, 2014 2:00 pm

essexcountypete wrote:
amugs wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:Car therm said it was 74º here in Florham Park and it's quite sunny atm.

I'm camping at the east end of LI this weekend. NAM showed ugly ammounts of rain a few days ago for Fri/Sat, but backed off a bit. Hoping it might back off some more, but not looking good.

Input on the weekend weather from anyone here would be welcome, thanks!

Pete,

How far out are you going? - Twin Forks area? Things should clear out there by later afternoon Sat and should be in sun and clouds for Sun maybe a stray shower and nicer weather shaping up once this front passes for Sunday as well. From the looks of the models this afternoon Friday like Frank said is going to be rainy and windy as well - out there in LI.

Thanks for the reply Mugsy! I'm going to East Hampton for an over-40 ultimate frisbee tounament on Saturday and Sunday (p0t smoking hippy jokes will follow no doubt :)but joking aside, I'll be way out there. I'm hoping to get there to set up my tent before the rain comes. Looks like the worst of it will be overnight into Sat morning when we're hitting the field. That total rain map look to be about 1.25 - 1.5", and that's not fun when you've in a tent. Oh well, time to break out the rain gear and the extra tarps.

Grab a shovel to dig a trench around the tent.....will help drain off the water...if you are going out Friday you can probably get set up a little ahead of the rain if you go early enough...have fun!

by **essexcountypete** Thu May 15, 2014 2:17 pm

Thanks Janet! The trench is the way to go, but we're camping on the guy's property who runs the tournament so I'll probably have to do without the trench and rely on an extra underlay and maybe a big tarp over the tent.

by **Dunnzoo** Thu May 15, 2014 2:31 pm

essexcountypete wrote:Thanks Janet! The trench is the way to go, but we're camping on the guy's property who runs the tournament so I'll probably have to do without the trench and rely on an extra underlay and maybe a big tarp over the tent.

oh and maybe a raft.... lol

by **Frank_Wx** Thu May 15, 2014 4:56 pm

1-2 inches of rain tomorrow into early Saturday morning. Should be a nice weekend overall, albeit cooler.

by **SoulSingMG** Thu May 15, 2014 6:06 pm

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
419 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
NEW JERSEY...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD
COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT...

CTZ009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067-069>075-176>179-161000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0001.140516T1600Z-140517T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-
WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
419 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT.

* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES AT NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH HIGH TIDE ON THE ATLANTIC AND WESTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD EXACERBATE FLOODING
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD
COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT.

by **Quietace** Thu May 15, 2014 6:29 pm

Its going to rain on my junior prom tomorrow. Stupid weather. At least it looks beautiful until the Thursday time frame.

by **docstox12** Fri May 16, 2014 7:42 am

Wow, radar this morning is solid yellow moving this way.

by **amugs** Fri May 16, 2014 8:03 am

May 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread - Page 4 Post-747-0-88606100-1400241020

DOC !! Holy smokes this is a going to be a soaker!

by **Dunnzoo** Fri May 16, 2014 8:07 am

yep, slow mover and training rain moving in later

by **essexcountypete** Fri May 16, 2014 9:19 am

dang. been watching radar all morning. it seemed like it was moving fast but now the leading edge is creeping. if that holds together like that all the way to the east end then that's a solid two inches so I'm leaning towards a early morning departure to the east end.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri May 16, 2014 9:47 am

Yankees game surely to be postponed tonight.

by **amugs** Fri May 16, 2014 12:21 pm

essexcountypete wrote:dang. been watching radar all morning. it seemed like it was moving fast but now the leading edge is creeping. if that holds together like that all the way to the east end then that's a solid two inches so I'm leaning towards a early morning departure to the east end.

A snail's pace - a race between a turtle and snail at this point for Pete's sake - Philly is getting a deluge and up here nada - Zoo the BH (Black Hole) lives up to its billing!

by **algae888** Fri May 16, 2014 1:02 pm

radar seems to be breaking up. 12z models suite shows much less rain for immediate nyc metro. maybe half an inch. looks like on models that parts of li and conn can see 1-2 " of rain after 8pm tonight thru early sat morning.

by **Dunnzoo** Fri May 16, 2014 1:32 pm

front moving slower....still think we will get about 2" with the training rain

by **algae888** Fri May 16, 2014 1:47 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:front moving slower....still think we will get about 2" with the training rain

maybe. but 12z models really backed off on heavy rain especially nyc and immediate surrounding towns. plus looking at latest radar, rain over NJ seems to be breaking up and intermittent. main area of heavy rain Is over eastern Maryland and Delaware. if it holds together maybe we will see an inch plus of rain. however that area looks like our only shot at seeing heavy rain.

by **jmanley32** Fri May 16, 2014 2:15 pm

One thing I know is its dang windy out! Some gusts seem to be near advisory criteria but guess not. The models are odd shows high amounts west of us and east of us and a cut off in totals in between how is that possible, is the front going to weaken and then restrengthen?

by **Dunnzoo** Fri May 16, 2014 3:01 pm

We may get a break after the front moves through, however a secondary low is expected to form bringing additional rain tonight... I don't follow the models when it's nowcast time...

by **algae888** Fri May 16, 2014 3:06 pm

there is a big hole on radar cutting through central n.j. from north to south with the last line of heavy showers moving into south jersey now. once these pass most of n.j should be finished with rain. I bet parts of central jersey do not even get .25" of rain from this system.

by **Dunnzoo** Fri May 16, 2014 3:12 pm

algae888 wrote:there is a big hole on radar cutting through central n.j. from north to south with the last line of heavy showers moving into south jersey now. once these pass most of n.j should be finished with rain. I bet parts of central jersey do not even get .25" of rain from this system.

The front is still in western NJ and will take a while to pass through, a secondary low will form and enhance the precip through tonight...I see the breaks, but as the front approaches precip will increase....you also have the problem of rain training over the same areas for a long time, increasing the totals. It's not like some of those summer front passages where we get quick kick-a$$ thunderstorms.

by **algae888** Fri May 16, 2014 3:17 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
algae888 wrote:there is a big hole on radar cutting through central n.j. from north to south with the last line of heavy showers moving into south jersey now. once these pass most of n.j should be finished with rain. I bet parts of central jersey do not even get .25" of rain from this system.

The front is still in western NJ and will take a while to pass through, a secondary low will form and enhance the precip through tonight...I see the breaks, but as the front approaches precip will increase....you also have the problem of rain training over the same areas for a long time, increasing the totals. It's not like some of those summer front passages where we get quick kick-a$$ thunderstorms.

I do see a low trying to form off the Virginia coast. if that low tracks due north than yes we may have some heavy rain overnight but all to often these seem to slide just east of nyc. we shall see. do not want to see a deluge tonight.

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